[G_R__E_G]

---

I'm North, declarer in 3nt. No clues from bidding. I have three unavoidable losers in the other suits. Entries aren't an issue. In playing the first few tricks the only clue I've picked up is that East is more likely to be short in clubs than West.

My first play was the ten to my queen, both defenders following small (west's count signal pretty much confirming she has three). Back to dummy - small, west following small. Is there a right play and a wrong play or are we 50/50? I figured that restricted choice tells me East is more likely to have the jack left than the ace, so I went up with my king. It turned out to be the "wrong" choice, but was it the "correct" choice? This was the very last board of a Swiss team match and we ended up loosing by 2 imps.

[cherdano]

Since KQ were in the closed hand, it seems much better to me to play the K not the Q in the first round. Doesn't this make it a little harder for East to duck (smoothly) with Ax?

Arend

[inquiry]

Leading the TEN to the king seems wasteful and unnecessary.

The correct play is low to the king, then the TEN or small from hand, and let ten "ride" if not covered (or play nine if you lead low towards dummy).

[G_R__E_G]

Quote

You should lead low not the T (in case of stiff jack) to the K/Q and then low to the 9. It is not 50/50 because you also pick up AJxx onside this wya.

I realized afterwards the ten wasn't right. However, as I'd said, I know west started with three after the first play (I've played these two before, they don't give false count signals). So there is no longer a chance that West had AJxx. Knowing this, is finessing the nine on the second round still right?

Quote

Since KQ were in the closed hand, it seems much better to me to play the K not the Q in the first round. Doesn't this make it a little harder for East to duck (smoothly) with Ax?

That's a very good point, and in fact I may have done that. I'm just putting this together from my recollections of a hand I was trying to forget. Unfortunately, I was having trouble completely forgetting it - hence the post. Btw, she did duck - very smoothly.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

even if you "know" that West started with
3 cards, the finesse in the 2nd round
is still 50 / 50, because when west plays
low the 2nd time, you only know that
East and West hold both one (unknown)
card in the suit you are interested in.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Trpltrbl]

You actually have a 60.1739% chance of 3 tricks.
And I am sure others already have said it, but playing the ten in trick 1 is incorrect.
Small to the K and then Ten ducked out.

GBB

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Oct 5 2005, 10:38 PM, said:

G_R__E_G, on Oct 5 2005, 12:32 PM, said:

However, as I'd said, I know west started with three after the first play (I've played these two before, they don't give false count signals).  So there is no longer a chance that West  had AJxx.  Knowing this, is finessing the nine on the second round still right?

It's exactly even if you know the suit is 3-2. Since you "know" only based on their count signals, the 9 is right. Even if there is a .0001% chance that lefty has all 4 (and there is, he could have pulled the wrong card even if he gives correct count 100 % of the time).

But LHO might have played the Ace from Ax in the first round. It is really a matter of table feel what you think is more likely.

Arend

[G_R__E_G]

Thanks for the advice folks, and please accept my apologies for pretty much wasting your time (rough day yesterday). I remembered last night why I played the ten, the south hand was T8xx not merely Txxx. That was another thing that I took into account - that RHO didn't cover the ten - which I took as further evidence that LHO more likely held the jack.