While I agree that simple J2NT has problems, they can be ameliorated by agreement, to the point that J2NT can be a very powerful approach: I know of at least two significant improvement methods, and the one I use is not too complex. I will outline it at the end of the post.
OTOH, splinters, if used indiscriminately, have all kinds of problems.
In my partnerships, we agree that a splinter is a severely limited hand.
In some partnerships, we use a jump to 3 of the other major as an unspecified splinter, with opener bidding the next step to ask.. this allows opener with a flat minimum to sign off without revealing to the opps where responder's shortness lies.. .this is safe because responder will not have a slam-suitable hand opposite a balanced minimum.
I certainly feel that KQxx x AQx Axxxx is a ridiculous splinter.
Splinters into the suit below game often end-play opener, who has to make a go-no go decision, at least as far as the 5-level is concerned, with very little relevant information. If you'd splinter with this hand, would you also splinter with QJxx x KJx AJxxx?
If the answer is 'yes', just how do you expect partner to make an intelligent decision? Unfortunately, what sometimes happens is that we catch opener with an in-between hand: one on which he wants to co-operate in case you have the big splinter but on which he can't bid if you have the lighter hand. So he tanks, and the partnership is doomed to a director call if it pushes successfully to slam.
Splinters that leave room for a last train bid can be played as wider range, altho even that concept is problematic.
In one partnership, we define splinters as no more than a really minimum opening bid (he splintered last week with Qxx AQxx QJxxx x.. which I personally thought and think was too weak, due to the lack of even one outside control). In others, it is either a minimum opener or so strong that it will always bid over a sign-off.
Going back to the 2/1 or immediate raise issue, I agree with Justin's early post.
My current J2N structure is:
3
♣ a non-minimum (need not be strong, just not a drop dead minimum) with a stiff somewhere or any 18+
: 3
♦ asks for stiff, with step responses
3
♦ some 5422 hand: 3
♥ asks for the side suit, step responses: we do not show weak suits: the idea is that the good 4=4 side fit sometimes plays a trick better than the 5-4 major
3Other Major: a void somewhere: next step asks
3Original Major: a minimum with a stiff somewhere. Responder needs a BIG hand to ask via the next step
3N: moderate hand, usually 6322 or 5332
4 new suit: KJ9xx or better, source of tricks, side suit more useful than showing shortness
This seems to work better than old-fashioed J2N, altho there are better methods I have not bothered to learn yet
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari