[awm]

gnasher, on Aug 24 2010, 12:36 PM, said:

How about leading ♥K after ♦A? Then if they take it we have an extra entry for setting up the long diamond, and if they don't we can take an immediate ruffing finesse, throwing the last heart.

I'd be quite pleased with myself if I'd thought of that at the table.

The problem with doing this is that RHO can win and return a spade, ruffed with the five of clubs and overruffed. Now you have to guess the clubs, and will lose to singleton queen on the right.

But it may still improve your overall chances.

[JLOGIC]

Awm has ignored 6421 shape. That seems like a very common shape on the auction:

1D (1S) 2C (p)
3C X

Not sure if that is a normal auction, but in that auction diamond length is kind of irrelevant and the double is almost always 6-4 in the majors unless extremely strong. That is my basis for thinking 5C is down so often, it's down on any 6-4 in the majors and also on 5440 (the most likely 54 shape to double with). It makes only on 5431 which seems like the least likely of them all.

[inquiry]

Ok, if West is 5440, we are at 50/50 (let's accept this for a moment as an absolute truth -- we will dispute it below as being not true). If west is 5431, we are 100% to make (6C, 1H, 1S, 1D, 2 spade ruff). So using your analysis of the hands (assuming briefly equal chance for 5440 and 5431) chance of 5C making is 75%. 0.75*12 = 9

Statistically, 5431 is wildly more likely than 5440, and when I ran this through the simulator, i initially defined WEST as 54(3-4)(0-1) with the majority of the hcp missing. So needless to say, the 5431 showed up something like 6 times as often as 5440 (i haven't rechecked, but my recollection is 5431 is way more likely than 5440). So from a simulator standpoint, the chance of "easily" making 5 clubs goes up.

But let's assume that it is 100% sure 5440 (as was the case on the given hand in the contest). Now lets play it after spade and spade, win the king, cash diamond ace, NOW KEY, lead the heart king. West must duck or it gives you a needed entry to establish the long diamond for 11th trick.

After the heart king wins, now play club to ace (whoops, west shows out). Lead the diamond 9 and if WEST does not cover let it run, throwing dummies heart away. East wins Jack, if he has it. Now you have a very high percentage diamond hook through WEST for the king, and sufficient entries to manage it. This wins 6C, 1S, 1H, 1S ruff, and two diamonds. Seems like this line is very close to 100% on the given auction/script.

[awm]

You're missing two things here.

First, pretty much any opening hand with 5440 qualifies for the auction given. Most opening hands with 5431 do not qualify -- you need a lot of extras to double at the three-level. You are also ignoring 6430 and 6421.

Second, on the line you (and Gnasher) gave, RHO can win the heart king with the ace and play a spade. This is ruffed with the ♣5 and overruffed with the ♣K. Now you have your extra entry, but you're also going down if RHO started with a singleton club queen.

[cherdanno]

Ben, 6=4 is a VERY normal holding in the majors for bidding 1♠ and doubling 3♣, why are you ignoring this shape?

[rogerclee]

cherdanno, on Aug 24 2010, 12:09 PM, said:

Ben, 6=4 is a VERY normal holding in the majors for bidding 1♠ and doubling 3♣, why are you ignoring this shape?

I think the stance is that because the script says west would double a 1C opener but overcall 1S over 1D, he is probably 5440 or 5413, and since the script (not the auction at any specific table) governs the opponents' hands, then the people who opened 1D don't get a break.

I think this unfairly punishes pairs who play a standard opening bid style, but oh well. Perhaps in the future it would be better to not have such a specific script.

[TimG]

rogerclee, on Aug 24 2010, 02:13 PM, said:

Perhaps in the future it would be better to not have such a specific script.

I think it is more practical and fair to stick with specific actions by the opponents that don't depend much on how the auction goes or choice of opening bid. There is probably a reason you don't see a whole lot of competition from the opponents in BW's CTC.

[hanp]

I now understand the thought behind making 5C the top spot. I don't understand the reason for writing this script. Did some people actually open 1C? What's the purpose of having a hand where the best spot can only be determined (when seeing both hands) if one makes an opening bid that nobody would ever make?

I don't have a good suggestion for what to do with this hand and it's scoring. As far as I know Ben is running this event for the first time and it is inevitable that such problems occur. For the future I would recommend that the scripts are not more complicated those in Challenge the Champs. The more the information we receive depends on our bids, the more complicated the scoring gets.

Ideally it should be pretty clear from seeing both hands what the top spot is. The exact points are of course never clear.

[jdonn]

Too much to reply to, but I still think 5♣ is overrated and 4♣ is underrated. The line inquiry suggests seems to complicated/random/obscure to score based on finding it!

[inquiry]

Perhaps I relied too much on the stipulation that West doubles a natural 1C bid, but my simulations did not include a six card spade suit, matter of fact, I limited them to 5431 and 5440. The actual hand (at the table) was 5440. The simulations had 5C making 99% of the time under this situation, but of course, the simulation finds the correct play when 5440 exist 100% of the time.

Awn has pointed out that it is not quite such a sure thing in the real world. But it is a sure thing with 5431, which is more comon that 5440, so I am forced to lower the score for 5C and increase the score for 4C. Five clubs will be decreased to 8 to reflect the problem of correctly dealing with the problems associated with 54, and 4C is being raised to 7 for the same reason.

Because of the change of 5C, the score for 3Hx has increased to a 9.

[rogerclee]

inquiry, on Aug 29 2010, 10:24 AM, said:

Because of the change of 5C, the score for 3Hx has increased to a 9.

To me 3Hx is probably cold and is more likely to make 4 than go down on the auction we had (1D X 2C P 3C X).

Your double dummy simulator is leading a diamond and getting its diamond ruff always. This will happen much less in real life.