bluejak, on 2011-February-19, 15:28, said:
One thing you must not do is to forget posts made because a poster does not post frequently in a long thread. I still think it relatively easy to find out whether 3♠ was natural, and was shouted down by arguments which were nothing to do with what I said. I stick to what I wrote, but I see no reason to write it again and again. I believe Burn and Lamford's certainty to be not justified by the facts in the OP or elsewhere.
Oh, nothing is certain except death and taxes (and if you are Vodafone, even the latter is far from being a certainty). I observe merely that I do not believe I or anyone has ever heard the following auction at the bridge table:
1
♦ - Double - 1
♥ (natural) - 2
♣ - 3
♠ (natural) - all pass. If I had heard it, I would hitherto have regarded it much as I would regard the sudden appearance of a Yeti or a basilisk, things that I am "certain" do not exist. But I recently had the pleasure of playing on a team with Jeffrey, and it seems that had the relevant cards been dealt, this auction might have been conducted at the other table in one of our matches.
Perhaps fortunately for the equilibrium of all concerned, the relevant cards have not yet been dealt. The fact remains, though, that if North had heard South explain 1
♥ as "hearts" (or, what is the same thing, not heard South alert 1
♥ as "spades"), I doubt very much whether the "natural" explanation of 3
♠ would have occurred to him any more than it would occur to me.
Bluejak asks me to clarify what I believe to be the discrepancy between Law 16 and Law 73. For the purposes of Law 16 and in the absence of Law 73, it would be open to North to reason that 3
♠ "must be" natural and based either on the misunderstanding that actually existed, or on the possible existence of Yetis and basilisks as described above. That is: if 3
♠ cannot "logically" agree hearts, then North may bid 3NT without breaking Law 16. But Law 73 does exist, and places a greater onus on North; he must not take
any advantage of the presumption (which he knows to be true) that South has four spades in a limit raise - he may not "deduce" it unless his deductions are logically true in all possible worlds. They aren't, so he can't bid 3NT.