[VM1973]

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My opening lead totally screwed the pooch.

[Hanoi5]

I'd say bad luck, though leading a trump is not a bad idea against part-scores (and that would lead to the same result...)

[inquiry]

First rule, never, ever listen to advice from me about opening leads. I am the worst opening leader ever.

Second rule, see first rule.

I rate it a little more towards bad lead and little less towards bad luck. Here is how I would have thought about the hand (rightly or wrongly). Before the lead I would do a little math. I hold 11 hcp. My right hand opponent probably 11 to 13, my left hand opponent 10 or 11 (assuming limit raise here, I would also expect a 4th trump). Let's average these out, 11+12+11 = 34, leaving somewhere around six HCP for partner (+/- 1 point). It is somewhat less likely that opponents are very distributional since West might use splinter and East might bid game with a side suit singleton even if minimum.

If partner has ♦A, or ♦K there is time to switch to a diamond when you when win the first of your two aces. If he has just the TEN of diamonds, a slow trick is probably not coming your way. That is, on this hand there is no rush to lead a diamond honor when missing the ten or at least the nine. On the other hand, I am not terrible fond of leading away from an Ace or plunking down an ace. So I think here, I would have started a trump. I would think a trump relatively safe since I only expect partner to have one, so it is unlikely to give up a trick. It is the controls in the other two side suits that persuade me to be somewhat conservative. No doubt this is probably "resulting" the hand since I can see all four, but that is the logic I would have used.

[ggwhiz]

Been there, done that. Three times in tonights speedball.

[Antrax]

I don't get it. Doesn't in this hand a trump lead end up being much worse? It lets declarer ruff a diamond and draw the last trump ending in dummy, making four, no?
What's the "right" lead?

[MrAce]

Antrax, on 2011-September-16, 23:08, said:

I don't get it. Doesn't in this hand a trump lead end up being much worse? It lets declarer ruff a diamond and draw the last trump ending in dummy, making four, no?
What's the "right" lead?

Yup, i did not understand the complaint either. I dont even understand the purpose of the post because black suit leads seems too dd to me.

[mb_dunedin]

At the risk of hijacking the thread - declarer will probably make 10 tricks off a trump lead. Should declarer get 10 tricks off the QD lead?

[Antrax]

mb_dunedin, on 2011-September-17, 02:20, said:

At the risk of hijacking the thread - declarer will probably make 10 tricks off a trump lead. Should declarer get 10 tricks off the QD lead?

I think so. If I were to declare I'd finesse the T on the second round of the diamond suit since it's much more likely LHO led from QJx than from Qx. Then again, I'd also have banged AK♥ before doing it, planning to lose two clubs, the ace of spades and the queen of hearts. But it's quite possible there's a better line.

[mb_dunedin]

Antrax, on 2011-September-17, 02:37, said:

I think so. If I were to declare I'd finesse the T on the second round of the diamond suit since it's much more likely LHO led from QJx than from Qx. Then again, I'd also have banged AK♥ before doing it, planning to lose two clubs, the ace of spades and the queen of hearts. But it's quite possible there's a better line.

Mmm. I confess that was how I would have played it, and I assumed that it was how declarer had played it, so I was surprised to see the line actually taken. I thought OP got lucky to concede just the 9 tricks. But then when I made my plan I could see all four hands, which takes away a couple of guesses, and generally improves my declarer play no end...

[BunnyGo]

VM1973, on 2011-September-16, 17:57, said:

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My opening lead totally screwed the pooch.

Actually, it seems like the declarer's play totally screwed the pooch. I too would have led a trump (usually right when there are no defensive ruffs coming, should be the default lead), but the Q of diamonds was my second choice. So 60% bad lead, 40% bad luck. Then 100% good luck based on who was sitting to your right.

As a side note, you can (and it's usually polite to) wipe the other names from the lin file as I've done above in the copy.

[han]

I don't know what screwing the pooch means but this declarer play has nothing to do with bad luck.

[VM1973]

Screw the pooch (verb): to make an irreparable (possibly tragic) mistake. Originated in the US Air Force.

It should be obvious that the lead failed spectacularly. Any competent declarer will win ♦K in hand, bang down ♥AK, take the marked finesse against the ♦J, cash the ♥J and run a load of diamonds pitching losers from his hand.

[gordontd]

deleted

[Antrax]

VM1973, on 2011-September-17, 07:02, said:

It should be obvious that the lead failed spectacularly. Any competent declarer will win ♦K in hand, bang down ♥AK, take the marked finesse against the ♦J, cash the ♥J and run a load of diamonds pitching losers from his hand.

Agreed. So what is the good lead you were supposed to find? Cash the blank club ace? If you're playing obvious shift, you could start with spade ace, get partner's signal that he likes clubs and get your four defensive tricks. Unfortunately after that, declarer can't go wrong. So what's the good lead?