[bluecalm]

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Random BBO tourney so I have no idea how opponents play, how they preempt etc.

Lead: K♥, A♥, T♥, 5♥
2nd trick: Q♠, 2♠, 3♠, 7♠

My play now ? (matchpoints)
I think this is kinda interesting. My intuition tells me it's close but I have no idea how to arrive at the answer. Please share some hints

[gszes]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 15:19, said:

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Random BBO tourney so I have no idea how opponents play, how they preempt etc.

Lead: K♥, A♥, T♥, 5♥
2nd trick: Q♠, 2♠, 3♠, 7♠

My play now ? (matchpoints)
I think this is kinda interesting. My intuition tells me it's close but I have no idea how to arrive at the answer. Please share some hints

after winning the A I exit a heart at trick 2 if another heart comes back at trick 3 ruff
small and dont worry about the overruff. win whatever return in your hand and draw 3 rounds
of trumps (hoping they didnt split 5/1) lay down a top dia (if rho didnt return a dia at
trick 3) go to dummy in clubs and take dia finesse. You make 4 as long as trumps no worse
than 42 (RHO having 4) and you make 5 if the dia finesse works. If trumps split 5/1 you need
the dia finesse to make 4.

This line also takes into consideration the possibility of W bidding 3h on a 6 card suit as it
eliminates hearts from RHO hand.

[rhm]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 15:19, said:

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Random BBO tourney so I have no idea how opponents play, how they preempt etc.

Lead: K♥, A♥, T♥, 5♥
2nd trick: Q♠, 2♠, 3♠, 7♠

My play now ? (matchpoints)
I think this is kinda interesting. My intuition tells me it's close but I have no idea how to arrive at the answer. Please share some hints

Why is it right to play the ♠Q at trick 2?
I do not like it. After all you have only 2 entries to dummy after the lead.

I suggest the following general line after the opening lead:
At MP I would pay off to West having a singleton ♦Q or void in ♦ and would play the ♦T to the ♦J at trick 2.
If West wins he will probably continue ♥s and the third ♥ will get overruffed, hopefully from length.
If East has 3 or 4 spades I will make 10 tricks in this case. (assuming no diamond ruff)

However, if the ♦J at trick 2 holds the outlook gets better.

Play ♠A followed by a trump to the ♠queen.
If West shows out repeat the ♦ finesse and play ♦s until East is out of ♦s. (Assume East has 2 ♦s if he plays the queen on the second round and West follows.)
Next play ♣s to establish your ♠9. (If East ruffs in from ♠JT discard a heart).
How many tricks you make depends on the number of minor suit cards East has.
In the extreme case, where East has 5♠-1♥-4♦-3♣ East-West will make only one trump trick and you will still make 12 tricks.
If West follows to both rounds of ♠s with low cards, play a third round of trumps followed by 3 rounds of clubs and eventually repeat the diamond finesse. This will make 11 or 12 tricks, depending on whether trumps break or not.
If West drops the ♠jack or ♠ten on the second round I will assume this to be a true card. (worth the risk at MP)
Repeat the ♦ finesse once again followed by three round of ♣s.
Finally if nobody ruffed in take the ♠ finesse for 12 tricks if West had a doubleton trump and 11 tricks if West had 3 trumps. However, if West discards on the second ♦ finesse, take the trump finesse immediately for 12 tricks.
If West can ruff the second ♦ from 3 trumps(having dropped the ten or jack on the second round), I am back to ten tricks. If West ruffs the third ♣ I still make 11 tricks (since I discarded already one heart from hand). This assumes West has at least 6 ♥s.
If West ruffs the second ♣ and gives East a ♦ ruff, West being 3-6-3-1 I am back to ten tricks.

Rainer Herrmann

[AlexJonson]

I'd expect to be more or less alone in four spades on this hand.

I think 'opponents' are in some number of NT or 6D. They may have no choice but to play for the diamond queen onside

Dropping the diamond queen offside looks, on the face of it, my best bet for a score.

[xcurt]

I would assume everyone else is in 3NT. What was partner thinking?

Anyway If everything works we can't beat the notrumpers, and the ouble spade hook is a poor chance and will lead to many down. I hope to get matchpoints from one of two scenarios

* LHO had the DQ, spades are 2-4, and 3N is down while I make
* LHO has 2713 when I can make 6, and NT makes 5.

I would play a diamond to the J, and if it holds 3 rounds of trumps ending in dummy.

[bluecalm]

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Anyway If everything works we can't beat the notrumpers, and the ouble spade hook is a poor chance and will lead to many down

Why ? If trumps are 5-1 spade hook is good. If they are 4-2 it still wins (at imps). They take with Hx, play a heart and might promote another spade but that's about it when it comes to their tricks. So 10 is more or less guaranteed.
It's also not that poor chance. JTxx to xx are 6combos. JTxxx to x are 4 combos. Jxxx to Tx or Txxx do Jx are 8 altogether and Jxx to Txx/Txx-Jxx are 6 and JTx to xxx are 4. So it's 10-18 but of course all the combos when LHO has 3spades has lower apriori probability (because he preempted) and (here was my argument) didn't lead a stiff so chances for him having short spades increase. I thought that he would auto lead stiff ♦ or ♣ with something like Jxx KQJxxxx x xxx. So when I discounted 3-3 breaks hooking the 9 looked like percentage play to me (and the one which won't be made in 3NT so that's a bonus).

Apparently I was wrong as after similar sequences only about 40% of the field had led stiff x and rest lead K♥ (vs 6♠ though everybody led a ♦).

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Why is it right to play the ♠Q at trick 2?
I do not like it. After all you have only 2 entries to dummy after the lead.

Well, I thought that if I guess spades There will be only one more loser (♥) which I can't dispose anyway so I take rest (assuming Q♦ is onside) after surrendering one ♥ and eventual trump.

Quote

If West wins he will probably continue ♥s and the third ♥ will get overruffed, hopefully from length.

So we already surrendered 2 tricks that makes 11. It seems to me I can take 11 by playing spades from the top, disposing one ♥ on clubs and then finessing diamonds.

Quote

If West follows to both rounds of ♠s with low cards, play a third round of trumps followed by 3 rounds of clubs and eventually repeat the diamond finesse. This will make 11 or 12 tricks, depending on whether trumps break or not.

Here was the crux for me. I make 11 tricks vs xx to JTxx. This rates to be poor score imo as 3NT'ers takes the same 11 but even in terms of expected value of tricks I am not sure.

It seems to me that much of "equity" in your line is from trumps being 3-3. I thought 3-3 trump break is extremely unlikely because (it's 24% assuming 7hearts in W hand a priori and from many of those 3-7 hands W would lead the minor suit stiff).
I assumed I am basically deling with 1-5 (25.6% a priori) and 2-4 (40%) after heart lead and wanted to maximize my score against those. It turned out though that I was wrong about stiff lead as people preferred K♥ from their Txx KQJxxxx x xxx, still from initial:
24% for 3-3
40% for 2-4
25.6% for 1-5
(I used awesome BBO calculator for that)

I should certainly discount at least 10% from 3-3's and probably some from 2-4's (2-7-1-3 also leads a diamond often).
So it still isn't that clear to me as your line basically surrenders against 2-4 break it seems to me.

Quote

I would assume everyone else is in 3NT. What was partner thinking?

I think 3♠ is better bid than 3NT on this hand. I often have 5 spades and sometimes have only about 10-11 hcp. If any of that occurs 3NT will be bad spot.

[rhm]

rhm, on 2012-January-07, 17:15, said:

Why is it right to play the ♠Q at trick 2?
I do not like it. After all you have only 2 entries to dummy after the lead.

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 23:33, said:

Well, I thought that if I guess spades There will be only one more loser (♥) which I can't dispose anyway so I take rest (assuming Q♦ is onside) after surrendering one ♥ and eventual trump.

Playing one round of diamonds first looses only if West is void in diamonds or holds the ♦Q singleton. The big advantage is that I will know whether the diamond finesse works or not, before dummy's trumps are gone.
For example starting at trick 2 with the ♠Q how do you continue in case East has 5 spades?

If the diamond finesse works my line will always make 10 tricks, with good chances for 11 and an outside chance for 12 tricks even if East has 5 spades.

rhm, on 2012-January-07, 17:15, said:

If West wins he will probably continue ♥s and the third ♥ will get overruffed, hopefully from length.

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 23:33, said:

So we already surrendered 2 tricks that makes 11. It seems to me I can take 11 by playing spades from the top, disposing one ♥ on clubs and then finessing diamonds.

Not true unless spades break 3-3. You loose a heart, a diamond and a spade as well.

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 23:33, said:

Here was the crux for me. I make 11 tricks vs xx to JTxx. This rates to be poor score imo as 3NT'ers takes the same 11 but even in terms of expected value of tricks I am not sure.

Well tell me (and others, who take such a dim view about the 4♠ contract) why declarers in 3NT will necessarily take the ♦ finesse?
Assuming the ♥king lead, taking the ♦ finesse brings in 2 overtricks if it wins and maybe down one if it looses, while playing ♦ from the top in 3NT will bring in 2 overtricks if the queen drops (a lesser chance agreed), but never risks the contract.

I am pretty sure the majority of the field will not risk the contract and I am not convinced that your matchpoint expectancy is higher by taking the ♦ finesse in 3NT.
One advantage of 4♠ is that taking the ♦ finesse is much safer here.

I agree with you that 4♠ is not a terrible matchpoint contract. However, your technical analysis looks to me superficial.

Rainer Herrmann

[rogerclee]

We are making 12 tricks in NT as long as the diamonds come in and the 3H bidder doesn't have 4 spades.

[bluecalm]

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We are making 12 tricks in NT as long as the diamonds come in and the 3H bidder doesn't have 4 spades.

True, good point.

[rhm]

rogerclee, on 2012-January-08, 08:34, said:

We are making 12 tricks in NT as long as the diamonds come in and the 3H bidder doesn't have 4 spades.

If you want to finesse in diamonds and play for a black suit squeeze against East or a heart club squeeze against West you will have to take the diamond finesse before cashing clubs.
Now you risk down two or three if the finesse is wrong.
This makes the claim that the 3NT declarers will finesse even more dubious. It remains a top or bottom play.
I am pretty sure I would not go for the ♦ finesse.

Rainer Herrmann

[rogerclee]

rhm, on 2012-January-08, 09:18, said:

If you want to finesse in diamonds and play for a black suit squeeze against East or a heart club squeeze against West you will have to take the diamond finesse before cashing clubs.
Now you risk down two or three if the finesse is wrong.
This makes the claim that the 3NT declarers will finesse even more dubious. It remains a top or bottom play.
I am pretty sure I would not go for the ♦ finesse.

Rainer Herrmann

If you want to be really conservative, we can still test the black suits before seeing what happens in diamonds, and use the algorithm that we only hook the diamond when it's marked.
You could also use this (imo better) method: duck the first heart, and if hearts are 1-7, cash the DA, 3 clubs, and 2 spades ending in dummy.

If LHO followed to everything, take the marked diamond hook for 11 tricks unless RHO was kind enough to have pitched one.
If LHO followed to 2 clubs and 2 spades, take the diamond hook and get 12 tricks if the diamond is on.
Otherwise play for the drop.

[xcurt]

rogerclee, on 2012-January-08, 10:15, said:

If you want to be really conservative, we can still test the black suits before seeing what happens in diamonds, and use the algorithm that we only hook the diamond when it's marked.
You could also use this (imo better) method: duck the first heart, and if hearts are 1-7, cash the DA, 3 clubs, and 2 spades ending in dummy.

If LHO followed to everything, take the marked diamond hook for 11 tricks unless RHO was kind enough to have pitched one.
If LHO followed to 2 clubs and 2 spades, take the diamond hook and get 12 tricks if the diamond is on.
Otherwise play for the drop.

Good points. I underanalyzed the alternative NT contract when thinking about how to play 4S, missing the squeeze on RHO. I guess this means we should be playing 4S to minimize the chances of a minus, and then play for max tricks within that constraint, and not worry so much about the 3NT folks because it's too complicated to figure out the joint distribution of layouts and field results.

Given this, rhm's line, discovering where the DQ is early, seems best. We will, however, make 12 tricks in spades with my modified line when spades are 4-2 and LHO has the stiff diamond by making the last trump en passant.

[bluecalm]

Ok, so let's assume we only battle vs other 4♠'s. I am still not convinced that playing spades from top is better.
1-5 break is much more likely than 3-3 with lead inference (on the other hand some of 1-5 are out because J/T didn't drop) and with 2-4 playing to the nine is worse only in 6 to 8 ratio.
It seems to me that hooking the nine beats declarers who play spades from top (as probably majority of the field would).

[Zelandakh]

bluecalm, on 2012-January-07, 15:19, said:

My play now ? (matchpoints)
I think this is kinda interesting. My intuition tells me it's close but I have no idea how to arrive at the answer. Please share some hints

bluecalm, on 2012-January-08, 11:23, said:

Ok, so let's assume we only battle vs other 4♠'s. I am still not convinced that playing spades from top is better.

You asked for some hints saying you have no idea how to arrive at the answer. Rainer, one of the very best card play analysers on these forums, gave you not only a hint but the complete solution. Why are you stil arguing about this?