[mich-b]

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Teams , expert opps.

North leads the ♠4 (4th best leads) and south plays the ♠J.
Do you win or duck , and how close do you think it is?

[cloa513]

mich-b, on 2012-January-29, 06:12, said:

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Teams , expert opps.

North leads the ♠4 (4th best leads) and south plays the ♠J.
Do you win or duck , and how close do you think it is?

If North has AQ9xx or AQ9x ♠ and the South has the A♣ then you are trouble no matter what so you have to win the lead and hope.

[phil_20686]

mich-b, on 2012-January-29, 06:12, said:

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Teams , expert opps.

North leads the ♠4 (4th best leads) and south plays the ♠J.
Do you win or duck , and how close do you think it is?

If south has only tw0 spades and not the ace of clubs, its right to win.

If south has 3 spades, then north has AJ94 A954 AJ54, in the last of these we win all the time, since we have the 876, if he has QJx we need to cover the second spade and we need north to have the club ace so south cannot get back on lead. If he has the first holding, then we need to duck twice. and we still fail when south has the club ace.

So I would win, as I think its uncommon to lead from four cards including the ace into a NT bidder, and would be very upset to lose to AQxxx and the club ace. Also, leading an agressive lead is more comfortable with a card outside. Also if you win first up its harder for the defence to know what do to, esp if they lead low from xxx vs nt.

[whereagles]

I'll duck. This loses only if LHO has AQ9x without the club ace and wins in all other cases.

(.05 sec thought, so it might be wrong lol)

[FrancesHinden]

This is not an exact calculation, because while 4-3 spades are more likely in the absolute sense, most Norths are much more likely to pick a passive lead than lead from AQxx or Axxx in spades.

The only time that I must duck is if North has AQ9xx and South the ace of clubs.
I must win if North has AQ9xx and the ace of clubs.
I must win if North has AQ9x and South the ace of clubs.

Otherwise it doesn't matter, I think.

If I assume that North wouldn't lead a spade from AQ9x then I should duck, because South is more likely that North to have the CA.
If I assume that North simply leads 4th highest of longest and strongest, then I should win.

So, yes, it's close.

This hand is another advertisement for attitude leads, by the way. Or at least it would be even more so if North led the 3.

Edit: against double dummy opponents there's a reason to win at trick 1. Suppose South has Jxx in spades, the ace of clubs, and not the king of diamonds. He can switch to a diamond, win the club and cash two more spades along with the DK. But I doubt anyone would think of that at the table.

This post has been edited by FrancesHinden: 2012-January-29, 13:44

[FrancesHinden]

cloa513, on 2012-January-29, 06:37, said:

If North has AQ9xx or AQ9x ♠ and the South has the A♣ then you are trouble no matter what so you have to win the lead and hope.

phil_20686, on 2012-January-29, 06:39, said:

If south has 3 spades, then north has AJ94 A954 AJ54, in the last of these we win all the time, since we have the 876, if he has QJx we need to cover the second spade and we need north to have the club ace so south cannot get back on lead. If he has the first holding, then we need to duck twice. and we still fail when south has the club ace.

If spades are 4-3 with any layout, you are fine as long as you win a spade trick at some point. They can't take more than 3 spades and the ace of clubs.

[phil_20686]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-January-29, 13:42, said:

If spades are 4-3 with any layout, you are fine as long as you win a spade trick at some point. They can't take more than 3 spades and the ace of clubs.

Eh? if its AQxx then they can switch to a diamond if you let it hold....then south gets in with the club ace and they get three spades a diamond and a club.

Also, if its AQ9x, and you duck, then can play a spade, then play a club back and another spade through and you never get a trick with AQ9x over the KT8x effectively?

If it is A9xx - QJx with kd with north, then they can switch to a diamond, if you run it north wins and plays another spade back, and now you cannot prevent 3s 1d 1c?

Ducking is also obviously dangerous from AQ9xx-Jx, as they can play a diamond, but its also dangerous to win as now the diamond position does not matter.

[FrancesHinden]

phil_20686, on 2012-January-29, 16:06, said:

Eh? if its AQxx then they can switch to a diamond if you let it hold....then south gets in with the club ace and they get three spades a diamond and a club.

Also, if its AQ9x, and you duck, then can play a spade, then play a club back and another spade through and you never get a trick with AQ9x over the KT8x effectively?

Yes, I know, I said they can switch to a diamond in my earlier post. But defenders just don't do that sort of thing.
Yes, I said you are OK _as long as you make a spade trick_ if spades are 4-3

[phil_20686]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-January-29, 16:09, said:

Yes, I know, I said they can switch to a diamond in my earlier post. But defenders just don't do that sort of thing.

I dont think hands where its right to switch from Jx or Jxx are hard to envisage if it holds and you hold the ace of clubs? It will be obvious to the defenders that declarer holds a stop, no-one things for a long time at trick one if the suit is cashing against you. I mean, ducking from a double stop doesnt make much sense if you hold the KJ of clubs, and with Ax or Axx its obvious that declarer is getting the clubs right as he must start by leading the K from hand surely.

[MickyB]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-January-29, 13:38, said:

The only time that I must duck is if North has AQ9xx and South the ace of clubs.
I must win if North has AQ9xx and the ace of clubs.
I must win if North has AQ9x and South the ace of clubs.

Otherwise it doesn't matter, I think.

Don't you also need to win it if North has AQxxx and the club ace, and South has J9 tight? I think winning the first trick is clearly right.

[FrancesHinden]

phil_20686, on 2012-January-29, 16:17, said:

I dont think hands where its right to switch from Jx or Jxx are hard to envisage if it holds and you hold the ace of clubs? It will be obvious to the defenders that declarer holds a stop, no-one things for a long time at trick one if the suit is cashing against you. I mean, ducking from a double stop doesnt make much sense if you hold the KJ of clubs, and with Ax or Axx its obvious that declarer is getting the clubs right as he must start by leading the K from hand surely.

I'm not convinced. I understand your logic, but it;s still a fact of life that even top class defenders continue their partner's suit, particularly from Jxx. From Jx it's more interesting.
Maybe it should be presented as a defensive problem in a year's time...

[FrancesHinden]

MickyB, on 2012-January-29, 16:18, said:

Don't you also need to win it if North has AQxxx and the club ace, and South has J9 tight? I think winning the first trick is clearly right.

Yes to the first question.
Still unsure on the second, although the first point definitely helps swing it.