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Balance or not?

#1 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 07:44

Random TM, 2/1 with no special agreements.




Now what? Partner is a good player, if that matters.

Pass? Double? Something else?

#2 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 07:51

Hi,

If you bid, it is X.

Most likely you should.

Here on BBF Justin said something like - if they open with a preempt
below 3NT and it comes back to you, and you have shortage in their
suit, act.

I am not sure, I am fully buying this, but I think it has a lot
going for it.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#3 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 08:16

minimum, xx in hearts, just 3 spades. One reason too many to double for me.
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#4 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 09:23

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2012-February-29, 07:51, said:



Here on BBF Justin said something like - if they open with a preempt
below 3NT and it comes back to you, and you have shortage in their
suit, act.


That is terrible advice, and you don't have true heart shortness anyway.

The most likely scenario is that RHO has heart SHORTNESS and overall strength, but not enough aces to raise in hearts. Pass like your life depended on it. Anything your side tries to bid is far too likely to get murdered.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#5 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 09:30

Easy double.
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#6 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 09:35

pass
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#7 User is offline   BunnyGo 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 09:39

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 09:23, said:

That is terrible advice, and you don't have true heart shortness anyway.

The most likely scenario is that RHO has heart SHORTNESS and overall strength, but not enough aces to raise in hearts. Pass like your life depended on it. Anything your side tries to bid is far too likely to get murdered.


Out of curiosity (since I know you mentioned this affected one of your previous strongly held opinions) did you recently get sawed off after competing over a preempt in such a situation?
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#8 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 09:51

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2012-February-29, 07:51, said:

if they open with a preempt
below 3NT and it comes back to you, and you have shortage in their
suit, act.


I buy that with a stiff instead of xx or maybe at MP's on these colours but would still pass.

Assuming the 2 bidder isn't colour blind or crazy the only plus I can imagine is right here. The chances of rho having a pretty good hand with short hearts seem a lot higher than pard having what we need in light of their pass.

If we lose a partscore swing it won't hurt as much as some of the alternatives.
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#9 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:14

Labeling the general concept attributed to Justin "terrible advice", is not a good idea. Applying that concept to this particular hand is debatable on its merits. I vote pass, but recognize those who would act are basing their choice on more than just the posted information.

Partner's inclinations in direct seat would be a consideration. I would be surprised if Justin ---sitting across from himself---would consider action with that hand to be automatic. But that comes from Vugraph kibbing, not from discussion with him. We have never met.
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#10 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:20

View PostBunnyGo, on 2012-February-29, 09:39, said:

Out of curiosity (since I know you mentioned this affected one of your previous strongly held opinions) did you recently get sawed off after competing over a preempt in such a situation?


No, I think it's terrible advice because it's easy to go wrong with if you're not Advanced+. For example, this person went wrong with it in this case: xx in hearts is not "shortness." Also, there is the moderate inference that partner has wasted heart honors, or RHO is quite strong with a heart misfit, or both. The advice is terrible because it is dangerous if used incorrectly.

I'll state it thusly: I think the advice is terrible because it says "always." And it's almost always wrong to say always. :)
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#11 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:26

With only 9 HCP, only fair spade support, a doubleton in hearts, all my HCP points in 3-card suits, and a horrible 5-card suit, I'd pass.
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#12 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:26

View Postaguahombre, on 2012-February-29, 10:14, said:

Labeling the general concept attributed to Justin "terrible advice", is not a good idea. Applying that concept to this particular hand is debatable on its merits. I vote pass, but recognize those who would act are basing their choice on more than just the posted information.

Partner's inclinations in direct seat would be a consideration. I would be surprised if Justin ---sitting across from himself---would consider action with that hand to be automatic. But that comes from Vugraph kibbing, not from discussion with him. We have never met.


If the advice is to always act in that spot, it is terrible advice, and I really don't give a hoot who gave it. It is terrible advice. If the advice were stated in a way that it could be CONFUSED as "always act," then it is, at best, dangerous advice.

If the advice were "strive to act whenever reasonable," then it's much, much better, but still capable of being misapplied by anyone mid-intermediate or below, in my opinion.

However, given the quality of some of Justin's recent postings in my opinion, nothing would surprise me.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#13 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:27

View PostS2000magic, on 2012-February-29, 10:26, said:

With only 9 HCP, only fair spade support, a doubleton diamond, all my HCP points in 3-card suits, and a horrible 5-card suit, I'd pass.


Well, 8, but your point is right on the money. (If you're counting each 10 as 0.5 HCP then you're even more precisely on the money.)

Oops!! My apologies. I was working on multiple threads, and was confusing this discussion for the discussion of another hand -- one with 2 tens, a jack, an ace, and a king.

Coincidentally, your advice fits almost perfectly with the other hand, too. :-)
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#14 User is offline   wyman 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:28

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 10:27, said:


Well, 8, but your point is right on the money. (If you're counting each 10 as 0.5 HCP then you're even more precisely on the money.)


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#15 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:29

Looks like an easy pass to me.

On this sort of hand, I tend to think about what big pickup we might miss by passing, and it's tough to think of one. Yes, partner might have a penalty pass waiting for opener, but otherwise, we don't rate to be missing a lot of games. I have 9 hcp and my strength is in my shorter suits, with a hopeless 5 card suit. I have no assurance of a playable fit, and I need partner to hold the equivalent of a strong 1N in order for us to have values for game....and he doesn't have that.

Meanwhile, if responder is sitting with a 4=1=4=4 13-14 count, which is entirely plausible, we are going for our life if I bid. While this isn't probable....it is at least as probable as partner having the hoped-for penalty pass.

What Justin is alleged to have said is nothing new or remarkable. Long-time readers of the Bridge World will know that Edgar Kaplan said, many years ago and on many occasions, that in these situations, the onus to act rests on the defender with shortness in their suit...that that player must recognize that partner may have considerable values but be unable to act due to his shape, which includes length in the opened suit.


So Justin's advice, if correctly stated, is a good tool, so long as it is recognized that he didn't mean that you should 'always' act with shortness.....surely no one beyond an absolute beginner would get that wrong?
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#16 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:29

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 10:27, said:

View PostS2000magic, on 2012-February-29, 10:26, said:

With only 9 HCP, only fair spade support, a doubleton in hearts, all my HCP points in 3-card suits, and a horrible 5-card suit, I'd pass.

Well, 8, but your point is right on the money. (If you're counting each 10 as 0.5 HCP then you're even more precisely on the money.)

A = 4
Q = 2
K = 3
Total = 9.

;)

(But thanks for the "right on the money" comment.)
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#17 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:35

View PostS2000magic, on 2012-February-29, 10:29, said:

A = 4
Q = 2
K = 3
Total = 9.

;)

(But thanks for the "right on the money" comment.)



Sorry about that. See my edits above. I was commenting on multiple topics simultaneously and got my "streams crossed." :-)
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#18 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:44

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 10:35, said:

View PostS2000magic, on 2012-February-29, 10:29, said:

A = 4
Q = 2
K = 3
Total = 9.

;)

(But thanks for the "right on the money" comment.)

Sorry about that. See my edits above. I was commenting on multiple topics simultaneously and got my "streams crossed." :-)

All the funnier when you notice that you quoted my post before I realized that I'd written "doubleton diamond" when I meant "doubleton heart".

;)
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#19 User is offline   S2000magic 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 10:46

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-29, 10:27, said:

Well, 8, but your point is right on the money. (If you're counting each 10 as 0.5 HCP then you're even more precisely on the money.)

Oops!! My apologies. I was working on multiple threads, and was confusing this discussion for the discussion of another hand -- one with 2 tens, a jack, an ace, and a king.

Coincidentally, your advice fits almost perfectly with the other hand, too. :-)

So . . . where's this other hand?

(I need to capitalize on all opportunities to offer sound advice; I so rarely do. ;))
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Simplify the complicated side; don't complify the simplicated side.
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#20 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-29, 14:02

View PostS2000magic, on 2012-February-29, 10:46, said:

So . . . where's this other hand?

(I need to capitalize on all opportunities to offer sound advice; I so rarely do. ;))



http://www.bridgebas...__1#entry616995

And get ready for one of the more anrgy/comical misunderstandings in BBO forum history.

Just please, for the love of God, if you're going to attack my arguments, do so with correct facts, and whatever you do, don't call me names!!

:-)
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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