[rhm]

gnasher, on 2012-July-09, 10:53, said:

Sorry about the stream-of-consciousness style. I've added a few more figures to my spreadsheet:
                                           S     H     D     C
Average tricks                          9.69  9.79  9.66  9.60
Beats contract                           203   183   217   204
Is best lead                             604   553   652   694
Is worst lead                            626   682   572   469
Matchpoints if everyone else leads D     -51  -107     0    79

I have not looked at your result in detail, but see a lot of broad agreements with mine
Overall the club lead looks best on your simulation too, which is the real surprise, at least for me.
I have long been skeptical about the beginner advice to lead from your longest and strongest, particular at matchpoints.
But I used to avoid singleton leads even when partner bid the suit.
However, I suspect single dummy you need to be an above average defender to reap the full reward of a club lead.
You relinquish control to declarer without fighting.
You will have to make some crucial discards and we all know how difficult this can be when no source of tricks have been established for your side.

Rainer Herrmann

[JLOGIC]

Club is always the winner in DD simulations on hands like this. No surprise, DD loves passive leads from no honors even in short suits since declarer will guess everything correctly anyways.

[lalldonn]

You don't even need to run a sim to know the short suit lead wins double dummy on hands like this. You just have to observe that it's the lead GIB almost always chooses.