[S2000magic]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-20, 05:22, said:

Double in this situation is asking for a spade lead, so I would play for two hearts two diamonds 6 clubs and we should have a squeeze of some kind if the the hearts don't break. At trick two play a low heart to the ten, if this holds cross back and play a heart to the queen.

About 10 minutes too late I thought of that line; it would have worked.

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-20, 05:33, said:

For once i disagree with rainer: Rho can just keep three hearts one diamond and Kx of spades. Even if they return the Q of diamonds, you will still be forced to take the heart finesse.

Suppose now you play a heart to the K, rho wins and returns a diamond, and you have 6 clubs 1s 1h 3d, and still need another.

We just cash the diamond to squeeze East in the majors. Similarly, if he keeps the diamond guarded and bares ♥J, we squeeze him in the pointed suits.

If East had bared ♠K, this wouldn't work - we'd have to cash ♠AQ instead of playing a heart. However, in practice he will never do this, because he doesn't know that we have ♦J and ♥10. He will almost certainly choose a "legitimate" defence by playing his partner for one of those cards.

Rainer's line gains when the hearts are Jx-Axxx. The assumption that East has ♦Q seems a good one to me, but maybe I don't know enough about what weak players do.

[phil_20686]

gnasher, on 2012-August-20, 07:39, said:

We just cash the diamond to squeeze East in the majors. Similarly, if he keeps the diamond guarded and bares ♥J, we squeeze him in the pointed suits.

If East had bared ♠K, this wouldn't work - we'd have to cash ♠AQ before playing a heart. However, in practice he will never do this, because he doesn't know that we have ♦J and ♥10. He will almost certainly choose a "legitimate" defence by playing his partner for one of those cards.

Rainer's line gains when the hearts are Jx-Axxx. The assumption that East has ♦Q seems a good one to me, but maybe I don't know enough about what weak players do.

You can only squeeze rho if he has the heart J. In which case you might have hooked. Suppose the hearts are Jx-Axxx, then rho comes down to Kx Axx Q, If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained. If you guess to cash the diamond K before the heart, then you can squeeze rho on the diamond J, but if he was instead Kx Ax Qx he has two tricks now when you play a heart.

It just seems like rainer's line represents a long series of guesses, all of which you must make correctly. Mine/cybereti's line has many fewer guesses, and looses DD in only one or two relevant cases.

[rhm]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-20, 05:33, said:

For once i disagree with rainer: Rho can just keep three hearts one diamond and Kx of spades. Even if they return the Q of diamonds, you will still be forced to take the heart finesse.

---

Suppose now you play a heart to the K, rho wins and returns a diamond, and you have 6 clubs 1s 1h 3d, and still need another. To do right in this position you need to guess whether to cash the diamond before playing a heart to the K. Then, if you guess this right, you still need to guess whether they bared the spade K, which will not be hart play to find.

No.

If RHO returns the ♦Q, you cash the diamond jack and West is squeezed in the majors. There is no need for the heart finesse. After the ♦J you play the ♠A.
Either the ♠K or the ♥J will drop. If no honor drops RHO does not have the ♥J.
Only if RHO returns the ♥2 do you have a decision to take.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-20, 07:46, said:

You can only squeeze rho if he has the heart J. In which case you might have hooked. Suppose the hearts are Jx-Axxx, then rho comes down to Kx Axx Q, If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained.

I go up with the queen. Then I cash whichever red-suit winners I have. This makes in all the layouts that you make, and also when LHO has ♥Jx.

The only "guess" I'm going to make is that RHO won't bare ♠K.

[S2000magic]

By the way, for what it's worth, LHO had the ♦Q.

[phil_20686]

gnasher, on 2012-August-20, 08:02, said:

I go up with the queen. Then I cash whichever red-suit winners I have. This makes in all the layouts that you make, and also when LHO has ♥Jx.

The only "guess" I'm going to make is that RHO won't bare ♠K.

How does that make when the layout is:

---

when I am making trivially?

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2012-August-20, 09:17, said:

How does that make when the layout is:
[layout snipped]

when I am making trivially?

In Post 14 Rainer said he was assuming from the lead that ♦Q was on the right. In post 22 I made it clear that I too was assuming that.

In post 23 you disputed the analysis in post 22, apparently stating that in the context on the assumptions in post 22 "If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained".

My post 25 was a rebuttal of post 23, so obviously it had the same assumptions as post 22.

Sorry if that wasn't obvious, but we were conducting a conversation, so I expected my comments to be considered in the context of that conversation rather than in isolation. The alternative, I suppose, would be for me to copy and paste all my previous posts into each new post. Would that make things easier to follow?

[phil_20686]

gnasher, on 2012-August-20, 09:39, said:

In Post 14 Rainer said he was assuming from the lead that ♦Q was on the right. In post 22 I made it clear that I too was assuming that.

In post 23 you disputed the analysis in post 22, apparently stating that in the context on the assumptions in post 22 "If you play a heart to the ace a heart comes back and you have to guess the heart position before the squeeze, in which case you haven't really gained".

My post 25 was a rebuttal of post 23, so obviously it had the same assumptions as post 22.

Sorry if that wasn't obvious, but we were conducting a conversation, so I expected my comments to be considered in the context of that conversation rather than in isolation. The alternative, I suppose, would be for me to copy and paste all my previous posts into each new post. Would that make things easier to follow?

Sorry the cricket is distracting.

Basically you are playing for a progressive squeeze on rho, when he guards all three suits, but you will have to guess which guard he has bared:

---

and rho hand is made by removing one of those cards. (rho on lead). If RHO kept two spades, he can return K spade at this point, and you have to guess which red suit he is guarding and get rid of the other one on the second spade. If he has bared the spade K, he will return a heart, or a diamond, and you will have to guess how to finesse.

I really don't see how you avoid guessing rho's shape. There are variations, but always rho can make you guess before you can test both red suits.

[gnasher]

I'm going to avoid guessing RHO's shape because he isn't going to return a spade into dummy's AQ. He's going to hope that his partner is guarding the red suit he has unguarded, and defend accordingly.

Imagine, for example, that East had blanked ♦Q, but declarer's diamonds were K10 rather than KJ. If East returned a spade, he would let through a hopeless contract. He just won't do that.

[han]

I don't understand why someone would assume from the diamond lead that the queen is on the right.

[cherdano]

I agree with Han, it seems normal to lead aggressive against this auction. (Of course, I don't know what LHOs who miss obvious Lightner doubles tend to do.)

[JLOGIC]

han, on 2012-August-20, 18:02, said:

I don't understand why someone would assume from the diamond lead that the queen is on the right.

lol yeah I'm with you. I am late to the party so I guess I can't lol given full ino, but LHO led their longest unbid suit. Seems pretty standard for bad players, all they learn is 4th best or a sequence and don't lead suits that have been bid.

I would make it like 50/50 (I guess more since LHOs longest red suit is diamonds) that LHO has the DQ. I guess it's actually more depending on what card RHO played at trick 1 (I didn't really read the whole thread, maybe it was stated, but a fast 8 or a slow 9 or a fast 9 would give us info).