[MrAce]

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East opens 3♠, west bids 4♠. Good players.

Std leads, std count and att.

Pd leads ♥7, 3 from dummy, Ace and 8 from declarer.

What is your plan ?

[inquiry]

i don't suspect partner lead the ♥7 from ♥K74... nor ♥K7. So East has the king, and maybe hidding the ♥4 giving partner only 1 ♥. However, my belief is that declarer has the ♥K, so no ♦A. I will play for 1♣, 1♠, 1♥ and 1♣ by returning a diamond after winning the ♥A.


Surely get \partner will switch to a club...when he wins the ♦ ACE. Should partner have the singleton heart, declarer can not pull trumps without at least giving me a chance to cash a trick in each suit anyway,



I

[mikeh]

I'll bite.

We can beat it by playing a heart if partner has a stiff, or a club if partner has the Q and declarer at least 2.

We need the ruff NOW if declarer is 7=3=2=1, but we need the club switch NOW if he is 7=2=2=2 or 7=2=1=3.

In addition, we can survive missing the ruff if he is 7=3=1=2. Note that this holding makes a diamond back fatal to the defence. Of course, the club back is fatal whenever declarer holds the Q!

That makes the club switch appear to cater to more hands than the heart, and I feel declarer, marked with the heart K, is unlikely to hold the club Q.

However, we need to consider partner's lead choice. The danger hand, when we have to take the ruff, would look like 2=1=5=5, with the diamond Ace and at least some of the lesser minor honours including the club Q. The stiff heart seems normal.

How normal is it with xx xx AQxxx Qxxx or xx xx AQxxxx Qxx? (the diamond suit may lack the Q or include the J.

We might know something about partner's style that would suggest, for example, that he'd be more likely to lead a low club from these holdings, but a heart seems acceptable...certainly I don't see it as so unusual that I would reject the frequency argument I made above.

So I switch to a club, knowing full well that this could let an unmakeable game get through on a fairly normal lie.

[gnasher]

mikeh, on 2012-October-24, 00:29, said:

How normal is it with xx xx AQxxx Qxxx or xx xx AQxxxx Qxx? (the diamond suit may lack the Q or include the J.

We might know something about partner's style that would suggest, for example, that he'd be more likely to lead a low club from these holdings, but a heart seems acceptable...certainly I don't see it as so unusual that I would reject the frequency argument I made above.

I was with you up to here, but I think it would be a unusual to lead a heart rather than a club from these holdings. Leading a doubleton with a preempt on your right is unattractive, because declarer is likely to be ruffing in front of you. Hence I'd play for partner to have led a singleton.

[phil_20686]

My instinct was to return a club, but I agree with gnashers analysis that leading a heart with Qxxx clubs is abnormal. If declarer has Qx of clubs, like 7222, then a diamond return and a club back is needed. A heart seems much more normal from xx xx AQJxx Txxx for example.

It also doesnt feel that normal to preempt at white/white with QJ9xxxx Kxx in the majors. Seems like a two spade opener to me. But maybe I am just old and conservative.

[FrancesHinden]

I think we need to know more about partner's style. I agree with gnasher & mikeh that I wouldn't expect _my_ partners to lead from 74 doubleton heart with what appears to be xx of trumps, more of less whatever their minor suit holdings are... .my usually partners are quite keen on ace leads against pre-empts and certainly would lead a diamond from phil's sample hand. But I've seen opponents who love making this sort of passive lead against this auction.

So I give my regular partner a heart ruff at trick 2, but with an unknown partner I probably return a club because doubleton heart is much more likely than singleton.

[Fluffy]

I would never lead a doubleton over Qxxx(x), hope my partners do the same, so I would play a heart back. If declarer has 8311 it is needed to cash ♦A, but I find 7303 where ♦A is fatal more likelly, so I'd play ♥2 back, and pay attention to partner's count in the minors to know wich trick is cashing after ruffing with ♠K

[MrAce]

Pd (me) had xx xx AQxxx xxxx

My pd after a long thought shifted to clubs. He is a very decent player from Israeli nat team. They made it,

Other table, Sabine Auken took the ace and switched to ♦ but Roy Welland, god knows for whatever reason, ducked to dummys K and our teammates made it as well.

But Roy's lead was a spade, which Sabine won by K and switched to ♦

[inquiry]

MrAce, on 2012-October-26, 22:04, said:

Pd (me) had xx xx AQxxx xxxx

My pd after a long thought shifted to clubs. He is a very decent player from Israeli nat team. They made it,

Other table, Sabine Auken took the ace and switched to ♦ but Roy Welland, god knows for whatever reason, ducked to dummys K and our teammates made it as well.

But Roy's lead was a spade, which Sabine won by K and switched to ♦

good problem... got a diamond, club, and heart return here in the forum. I am thinking that mikeh's club return might be best theoretically but I hope on my diamond return, winning the ace and firing back a club would be obvious. Never even considered partner ducking the diamond to dummy's king.

[MrAce]

inquiry, on 2012-October-27, 20:10, said:

good problem... got a diamond, club, and heart return here in the forum. I am thinking that mikeh's club return might be best theoretically but I hope on my diamond return, winning the ace and firing back a club would be obvious. Never even considered partner ducking the diamond to dummy's king.

If i had a little life in clubs, i would % 100 lead it instead of heart, i still could have, thought about it but led heart. And yes, after i saw dummy i was hoping pd plays ♦ and i would shift to clubs, i also think it is kinda obvious.

[FrancesHinden]

It shows why you need to know partner's leading style. Mine would have led the ace of diamonds from partner's hand (as I said earlier before seeing the deal).

[bluecalm]

Imo partner should lead a heart from almost every xx xx -(anything) kind of hand unless he has QJTx of clubs or something so no inference there. Those leads just work too often to give them up in the name of leading style or what not.

Now it looks like easy diamond switch as opener surely doesn't have K♥ and A♦ for his non vul preempt but he might well have Q♣. I don't see any layout when a club is better than a diamond with above mentioned assumptions.

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-29, 03:07, said:

Imo partner should lead a heart from almost every xx xx -(anything) kind of hand unless he has QJTx of clubs or something so no inference there. Those leads just work too often to give them up in the name of leading style or what not.

I think you've misunderstood. Frances's partners eschew heart leads from that type of hand because they think it's the wrong lead. It's not dogma, it's their bridge judgement.

[bluecalm]

Yeah, the word style always suggests some bias to me in context of games. Bridge is no different.
Imo you have to be very confident about your partner's preferences to assume they won't lead a heart from xx xx AQxxx xxxx kind of hand. I also think that heart leads is much better than club from this hand so going with partner's style is like playing for mistake partner is expected to make here.
Of course if I am wrong about heart being the best lead from this hand or even about it being clear cut then my argument loses all its power.

[rhm]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-29, 03:07, said:

Imo partner should lead a heart from almost every xx xx -(anything) kind of hand unless he has QJTx of clubs or something so no inference there. Those leads just work too often to give them up in the name of leading style or what not.

Now it looks like easy diamond switch as opener surely doesn't have K♥ and A♦ for his non vul preempt but he might well have Q♣. I don't see any layout when a club is better than a diamond with above mentioned assumptions.

mikeh, on 2012-October-24, 00:29, said:

In addition, we can survive missing the ruff if he is 7=3=1=2. Note that this holding makes a diamond back fatal to the defence. Of course, the club back is fatal whenever declarer holds the Q!

Why do people not read what others have written before them and make claims which do not hold water?

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-29, 10:39, said:

Yeah, the word style always suggests some bias to me in context of games. Bridge is no different.
Imo you have to be very confident about your partner's preferences to assume they won't lead a heart from xx xx AQxxx xxxx kind of hand. I also think that heart leads is much better than club from this hand so going with partner's style is like playing for mistake partner is expected to make here.
Of course if I am wrong about heart being the best lead from this hand or even about it being clear cut then my argument loses all its power.

Yes, "style" was probably not the right word. Regardless of what you call it, however, you should take account of your partner's tendencies, regardless of what you think of those tendencies.

Suppose that I were playing with you. I know that you think a heart lead is right from a hand like xx xx AQxxx xxxx, but personally I think that you're wrong.

Should I play for you to have led a doubleton, even though that means I'm playing you to have made what I consider a mistake? Or should I dogmatically refuse to accept that you would have led a heart from that holding, simply because I wouldn't have done so?

[bluecalm]

Quote

Why do people not read what others have written before them and make claims which do not hold water?

I've read Mikeh post. Sometimes this piece eluded me.
So there is one this layout. Still I think diamond is much better as it's seems it's less likely that partner is exactly xx xx Axxxxx Qxx than that he doesn't have Q♣.

Quote

Should I play for you to have led a doubleton, even though that means I'm playing you to have made what I consider a mistake? Or should I dogmatically refuse to accept that you would have led a heart from that holding, simply because I wouldn't have done so?

You should play for my mistake unless (mistake according to your assessment) unless it's so huge mistake that there is hope I learnt from last time I made it
As to the heart lead I thought it's clear cut. I was wrong. People in fact lead a clubs from 2-2-Axxxx-4 kind of hands and according to some simulations I made it's reasonable (although worse than heart).
I was wrong and arrogant at that. I was probably in bad mood.

Still diamond is clearly the best play !

[rhm]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-30, 10:11, said:

So there is one this layout. Still I think diamond is much better as it's seems it's less likely that partner is exactly xx xx Axxxxx Qxx than that he doesn't have Q♣.
Still diamond is clearly the best play !

I think it is much closer than you seem to believe.
What do we know at this point?
Declarer is very likely to hold 7 spades and at least 2 hearts.
So 7=3=1=2 without the queen (club return needed) compares with 7=2=2=2 or 7=2=1=3 including the club queen (diamond return needed).
Admittedly these distributions are not exactly equally likely.
But we are not comparing one type of hand for partner but whole classes of distributions.

Even if we assume declarer would preempt irrespective of whether he holds the ♣Q or not, declarer will hold the ♣Q only one third of the time when he has a doubleton club and 50% when he holds three cards in clubs.

I think it is close which minor to return. I am too lazy to count the precise mathematical combinations.
Maybe a diamond has an edge.

Rainer Herrmann

[bluecalm]

Quote

So 7=3=1=2 without the queen

1*6*C(5,2) = 6*10 = 60 layouts

Quote

7=2=2=2 or 7=2=1=3 including the club queen

1)7=Kx=xx=Qx

1*C(6,2)*5 = 15*5 = 225 layouts

2)7=Kx=x=Qxx
1*6*C(5,2) = 6*10 = 60 layouts

Looks like 285 to 60 or
So it's 285 to 60 or 82.6% for Ad being right in cases when it matters.

[han]

For a club switch to win over a heart return partner would need a doubleton heart and the club queen. Sounds like never.