[mgoetze]

jjbrr, on 2014-December-21, 01:22, said:

bigger disappointment this season: bears or 9ers?

cutlaaaaah or krapernick?

Josh McClown!

[mgoetze]

Peyton Manning also making a late season surge to the most disappointing QB finish line. At this point you seriously have to wonder whether he will be back next year.

[jjbrr]

rivahhhhhhhhhhs

[jjbrr]

number of kids = number of points in a must-win game. notagoodlook

[mgoetze]

Aaron Rodgers just clinched a lot of MVP votes by demonstrating his willingness to play through injury.

[jjbrr]

detroit is so dirty. i wonder if the coaches are running stomp drills in practice

[billw55]

mgoetze, on 2014-December-23, 15:18, said:

Peyton Manning also making a late season surge to the most disappointing QB finish line. At this point you seriously have to wonder whether he will be back next year.

Yeah. He may have just expired as an NFL QB. Or maybe he has some undisclosed injury issues that the bye week will help with. We'll see soon enough with a good team arriving in Denver.

Even if he is washed up, he will still come back next year to lumber past Favre's yardage record.

[jjbrr]

It may just be me but these wild card games seem pretty awesome.

Balt @ Pitt is pretty obviously great, and Zona @ Carolina is obviously LOL. The Dallas run against the Detroit run-D is a great matchup but I think Dallas just has too many weapons. Cinc @ Indy might set the playoff record for cringeworthy pick-6s mixed with great plays.

Pretty exciting

[mgoetze]

If somehow the Arizona Cardinals minus Ryan Lindley plus Cam Newton were declared the winner of that Wild Card matchup, that would be one helluva contender. May have mentioned this before but I really hope Cam goes to free agency, he is too good for that sorry excuse for a franchise.

[cherdano]

Who's your MVP?

[billw55]

cherdano, on 2014-December-29, 14:00, said:

Who's your MVP?

JJ Watt. If a defensive player can ever get it, he should. Otherwise, you might as well rename it "most valuable QB or RB".

[Bbradley62]

mgoetze, on 2014-December-23, 15:18, said:

Peyton Manning also making a late season surge to the most disappointing QB finish line. At this point you seriously have to wonder whether he will be back next year.

Peyton was:

• 4th in the league in completions (395, his 4th-best year ever)
  
• 4th in the league in passing yards (4727, his 2nd-best year ever)
  
• 2nd in the league in touchdown passes (39, his 3rd-best year ever)
  
• 4th in the league (among those with 100+ attempts) in quarterback rating (101.5, his 5th-best year ever)

Yes, four of his past five games were sub-par... but you interpret this to mean that he suddenly became old on Thanksgiving Day? The only way he retires at the end of this season is if he wins the Super Bowl and decides that's a nice way to end his career.

[mgoetze]

jjbrr, on 2014-December-29, 12:14, said:

The Dallas run against the Detroit run-D is a great matchup

Well, the Detroit run-D minus Suh, who has been suspended for one game, and rightfully so.

And yeah, I think J.J. deserves to win the MVP.

Runner-ups: Calais Campbell, Gronk, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers.

[mgoetze]

Bbradley62, on 2014-December-29, 14:25, said:

Peyton was:

• 4th in the league in completions (395, his 4th-best year ever)
  
• 4th in the league in passing yards (4727, his 2nd-best year ever)
  
• 2nd in the league in touchdown passes (39, his 3rd-best year ever)
  
• 4th in the league (among those with 100+ attempts) in quarterback rating (101.5, his 5th-best year ever)

Yes, four of his past five games were sub-par... but you interpret this to mean that he suddenly became old on Thanksgiving Day? The only way he retires at the end of this season is if he wins the Super Bowl and decides that's a nice way to end his career.

I don't know what happened to him, whether he "became old" or just became injured, but something definitely happened.

Peyton also has great receivers, a competent offensive line, and a well above-average defense that makes sure he gets to be on the field often enough to accumulate those counting stats.

[jjbrr]

Godgers is imo clearly the MVP if we take most valuable player literally, but Watt is just a monster, had an amazing season, and added win expectation for his team unlike anyone else at his position. I think he deserves more than dPOY

[jjbrr]

mgoetze, on 2014-December-29, 14:31, said:

Well, the Detroit run-D minus Suh, who has been suspended for one game, and rightfully so.

Doesn't he simply appeal, play the playoff game, and take the suspension next season?

[billw55]

jjbrr, on 2014-December-29, 15:01, said:

Godgers is imo clearly the MVP if we take most valuable player literally, but Watt is just a monster, had an amazing season, and added win expectation for his team unlike anyone else at his position. I think he deserves more than dPOY

Yeah, it depends on how "MVP" is defined. It could mean:

1. The player who, if swapped for an average player, would result in the greatest reduction in wins by his team. By this measure, I think it would be Rodgers. Not to take away from Manning or Brady, but I do think the broncos and patriots are more balanced teams overall and thus depend less on their QB.

2. The player who outperforms the average at his position by the greatest margin. IMO this is JJ Watt and not close.

[jjbrr]

jjbrr, on 2014-December-29, 15:03, said:

Doesn't he simply appeal, play the playoff game, and take the suspension next season?

I'm led to believe the appeal would be resolved by Wednesday, so yeah he should be done for the season

[mgoetze]

billw55, on 2014-December-29, 15:12, said:

1. The player who, if swapped for an average player, would result in the greatest reduction in wins by his team. By this measure, I think it would be Rodgers. Not to take away from Manning or Brady, but I do think the broncos and patriots are more balanced teams overall and thus depend less on their QB.

I would definitely agree that Rodgers fits this definition if you had said "replacement-level player". The funny thing is that an average QB is a lot better than a replacement-level QB. Here's the #15 through #18 QBs by EPA: Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer. How many wins do you envision the Packers having with one of those QBs?

Another way to look at it: Aaron Rodgers is credited with 5.16 WPA. His O-Line is probably about average but I do think his receivers are a bit above average (hard to tell when they've never played with another QB). The #17 QB, Mark Sanchez, is credited with 1.67 WPA so that's 3.49 wins that Rodgers is providing over an average QB.

JJ Watt is credited with 3.21 WPA, and the 45th-best DE has 0.56 WPA, so that's about 2.65 wins for Watt over an average DE. But that's just what Watt is able to accomplish himself despite being constantly double- and triple-teamed. I would argue that what Watt allows his teammates to accomplish by forcing opposing defenses to concentrate on him is worth another full win, which would be enough to edge out Rodgers.

[jjbrr]

As a Pats fan I'm pretty excited to dodge two Rex Ryan games each year. Firing Idzik seems like a no-brainer, but Rex is pretty clearly an elite coach and the Jets imo are clearly and unequivocally worse without him. I can only hope Rex and the Pats are in discussion for a D Coordinator position.

Sort of an interesting article excerpt link:

Quote

And this phenomena is essentially what the research on NFL coaching changes has found. Although the average team to change coaches since 1994 has seen its winning percentage improve from .383 to .428 the next season, that’s mostly regression to the mean at work. In fact, once we account for the teams’ previous Elo ratings and the inexorable pull that a .500 record exerts on NFL teams from year to year, there’s little evidence that changing coaches helps teams at all.

The aforementioned sample of teams had an average Elo rating of 1437 at the end of the regular season with their old coach, which tends to translate to a .463 winning percentage the following year whether a team changes coaches or not. But the season after making the change, those teams averaged a .428 winning percentage — about 35 points lower than we’d have expected based on their previous Elo ratings. This may speak to broader institutional issues that are correlated with coaching changes but beyond the influence of the coach himself, such as dysfunctional ownership, a poor general manager or players who consistently win less than point-differential-based metrics would predict.

I think this Jets team will be a textbook example of a team that fires a coach and ends up with a replacement far, far worse.