[Bbradley62]

I find it hard to criticize the offensive play-calling of the team that scored the most points during the regular season this year. BTW: Which team attempted the fewest passes during the regular season this year?

[PhantomSac]

cherdano, on 2015-January-18, 15:43, said:

@NYT4thdownbot is the best:
"Bots don't cry...
Bots don't cry...
Bots don't cry..."

It seems the bot doesn't mind the field goal (when ignoring the wind) though - I guess up 16 versus up 13 is a big deal:
http://nyt4thdownbot...201501180261419

Sry to spam thread but the live betting money line on SEA was +195 AFTER the field goal was made to go up 16-0. The NYT bot said before ATTEMPTING the field goal, the team who attempts it wins 92 % of the time. This is an inherent flaw in the bot that it doesn't take into the teams (and maybe doesn't take into account how much time is left in the game)? Given that even when GB made the FG (which the bot said is 77 % which does not take into account the massive wind), sea was +195, I am going to guess that not going for it was a horrible error.

[PhantomSac]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:04, said:

I find it hard to criticize the offensive play-calling of the team that scored the most points during the regular season this year.

That's great. Do you also find it hard to criticize a line of play in bridge if it results in making a hand? This moron kicked two field goals from fourth and goal at the 1 in the beginning of the game. How can you not criticize that? There is no defense. Yes, McCarthy happens to coach the best quarterback in the league who has good receivers, so despite him they are able to put up a lot of points. On top of that how many points you score is going to be impacted by your defense, if the opponents score less then you are going to score less as you will run the ball at the end of games.

For instance seattle held their opponents to the fewest points in the NFL by far. Why is it surprising to you that they also attempt the fewest passes? On top of that they have an elite running back and run game obviously.

[cherdano]

The bot does know how much time is left. It doesn't know the strength of the teams.
(I think there are better models that take into account the pre-kickoff spread, but I am not sure there is one as easily available.)

Meanwhile, this looks like a typical comeback (leading team getting passive, trailing team staying aggressive) game now.

[PhantomSac]

Let's put it another way, if you have a team that has Aaron Rodgers and Jordy/Cobb, you are going to put up a lot of points no matter how often you kick stupid field goals and punt stupidly and run the ball way too often. That's fine, but that does not mean you cannot criticize McCarthy. His in game decisions are limiting how many games they win because he minimizes how many points his team scores. He is not throwing the ball, he is not catching the ball, the only way during the game he can impact how many points his team scores is with his in game decisions, and he does things like kick field goals on 4th and goal at the 1 which is so obviously wrong. These decisions should be based on MATH. Sometimes there are factors to consider, but 4th and goal at the 1 in the beginning of the game is not one of them.

[Bbradley62]

PhantomSac, on 2015-January-18, 16:11, said:

That's great. Do you also find it hard to criticize a line of play in bridge if it results in making a hand?

No, but I might find it hard to criticize the line of play chosen if I knew that the player who had chosen that line won the Reisinger last year.

[PhantomSac]

cherdano, on 2015-January-18, 16:12, said:

The bot does know how much time is left. It doesn't know the strength of the teams.
(I think there are better models that take into account the pre-kickoff spread, but I am not sure there is one as easily available.)

Meanwhile, this looks like a typical comeback (leading team getting passive, trailing team staying aggressive) game now.

I admit I don't know how much the wind matters, I have never looked into it, but I do know Belichick once took the wind in OT vs I think denver last year (the best offense at the time?) BB is a smart dude, choosing to give them the ball in OT when he might not get it back and they are the best offense in the league means that the wind must really matter a ton in some circumstances. The wind was supposedly pretty bad out there and that alone probably swings the decision, but the bot being so far off from the ML at the time also probably swings it over to going for it, the bot is way overestimating GBs chance of winning at that time which obviously leads it to be more conservative. Those 2 combined, it seems like based on what we know MM made a pretty costly decision. But this is a derail from the real point. FOURTH AND GOAL. AT THE ONE. TWICE. It is unthinkable. I hope GB loses.

[cherdano]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:04, said:

BTW: Which team attempted the fewest passes during the regular season this year?

I bet it's Seattle. Do you know which offense had the best running game this year?

[PhantomSac]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:17, said:

No, but I might find it hard to criticize the line of play chosen if I knew that the player who had chosen that line won the Reisinger last year.

If you can demonstrate mathematically that it is the wrong decision (or if that has been done by many people many times), it should not matter who it was. Do you really think there is an argument for his first 2 field goals?

[Bbradley62]

Maybe he was concerned that getting stopped would strongly shift momentum away from his team.

[PhantomSac]

cherdano, on 2015-January-18, 16:19, said:

I bet it's Seattle. Do you know which offense had the best running game this year?

Best run game, best defense. Shockingly they pass less than anyone else.

[Bbradley62]

Of course, they had only gained a total of 40 yards in those two drives, so maybe he just wanted to ensure that he got points on the board.

[PhantomSac]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:24, said:

Maybe he was concerned that getting stopped would strongly shift momentum away from his team.

Why? Almost all NFL coaches go for this now. Even Troy freaking Aikman said he should go for it. If his team is such babies that they will crumble after missing it and having them pinned at the 1, maybe he should coach them better so they are prepared for that. He can even say "This shows how much I trust my offense to get a yard! And also how much I trust my defense, because they are gonna get a safety or at least a 3 and out and we will have the ball back in great position."

Perhaps the whole "momentum" thing is made up, and just an excuse for bad coaches who make demonstrably bad decisions over and over.

[PhantomSac]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:27, said:

Of course, they had only gained a total of 40 yards in those two drives, so maybe he just wanted to ensure that he got points on the board.

Seriously? They had "only" gotten 40 yards on those 2 drives? They started them at the seattle 19 and the seattle 23. They could not have gotten more yards without scoring touchdowns.

Shouldn't putting the most points possible on the board be the goal? Do you prefer to play 100 % partscores when playing total points so you can put points on the board and not risk a 60 % game?

Points on the board, momentum, trust your defense, these are all silly things that have been said since the beginning of the time, it does not make them any more useful.

[cherdano]

Bbradley62, on 2015-January-18, 16:04, said:

I find it hard to criticize the offensive play-calling of the team that scored the most points during the regular season this year.

I mean, he didn't go for the 2-point conversion against Dallas down 19-21 late in the 3rd quarter. That's just LOL.

[Bbradley62]

PhantomSac, on 2015-January-18, 14:36, said:

... You have a completely shitty defense...

PhantomSac, on 2015-January-18, 16:28, said:

... He can even say "... And also how much I trust my defense, because they are gonna get a safety or at least a 3 and out and we will have the ball back in great position."

So, which is it? Should he go for fourth and one because he has a completely shitty defense, or because he trusts his defense?

[PhantomSac]

I was talking about what he could say to pump up his team so they don't "lose momentum" and mentally crumble after failing to get a 4th and 1. You said he might have kicked a field goal because he feared his team would lose momentum.

No, I don't think that he should say "yo we have a shitty defense and a sweet offense and we are big underdogs in the game." Even if that is true. That is not a good way to coach your team and build momentum lol.

In this case it is so clear to go for it that those factors don't even matter. It is almost impossible to construct a scenario where it would be wrong to go for it on 4th and goal at the 1 in the beginning of the game.

[mike777]

My wife and her family (Wis) are going crazy here. The phone is ringing off the hook.

[PhantomSac]

lol if they lose after getting 5 turnovers, while managing to score 19 points.

[PhantomSac]

Another LOL @ McCarthy not calling timeout when seattle completed a pass. With 3 timeouts. Luckily Lynch scored instantly so it didn't matter but still shows another one of his great skills, clock management in the endgame.