[mgoetze]

billw55, on 2015-February-03, 10:45, said:

OK, maybe a slant into traffic wasn't the best choice of passes.

Well yeah, the play call wasn't for a slant into traffic. It was for a slant to a wide open receiver because obviously Kearse was going to pick Butler.

[mgoetze]

jjbrr, on 2015-February-03, 11:53, said:

Maybe someone can dig up the actual percentages, but I'd guess the difference in win expectancy between pounding ML and throwing there is very small, except of course when NE knows beforehand what the play is going to be, which obv they didn't account for.

Over the past 5 years from the 1 yard line:

Run: scores 54.1%, turnover 1.5%
Pass: scores 50.1%, turnover 1.9%

[Cyberyeti]

My feeling was that Seattle had the time to try 2 quick QB sneaks (plays that won't lose yards and won't turn the ball over) then call their time out and work out what to do on 4th down if they hadn't got in.

I also felt Seattle got shafted by the officiating crew, the missed pass interference call on the play earlier in the 4th quarter was criminal. I also feel the center precipitated the offside right at the end with a head bob that exactly resembled the one he normally snapped the ball with, as an ex-NT I'd have been fuming if that happened to me and that might have had something to do with the brawl. Even with that, NE would probably have won had they conceded a safety at that point.

[jjbrr]

thoughts on 538's hubris of attempting to solve the GOAT argument in a single article?

[mgoetze]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-February-05, 10:31, said:

My feeling was that Seattle had the time to try 2 quick QB sneaks (plays that won't lose yards and won't turn the ball over) then call their time out and work out what to do on 4th down if they hadn't got in.

I guess I just don't watch enough Seahawks games, but I have never in my life seen Russell Wilson run a QB sneak.

And GOAT arguments are just so stupid. Really don't care about that kind of stuff at all.

[Cyberyeti]

mgoetze, on 2015-February-07, 00:45, said:

I guess I just don't watch enough Seahawks games, but I have never in my life seen Russell Wilson run a QB sneak.

The situation called for it purely because you can't lose much on it, it's essentially a free play with no downside. I can't imagine that they don't have one in their playbook even if they don't bring it out often.

[mgoetze]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-February-07, 04:39, said:

The situation called for it purely because you can't lose much on it, it's essentially a free play with no downside.

I dunno, just because Brady never loses yards on this play doesn't mean it will be the same for every QB. You are still snapping the ball back 1-2 yards, and there is nothing about the QB sneak that makes it inherently fumble-immune. It might be less likely just because it is usually such a quick play, but if a defensive tackle manages to shoot a gap and put his helmet on the ball...

I think the QB sneak is likely one of the few plays in the book where Wilson's lack of height is a serious disadvantage. Brady can look over his linemen to see exactly where he needs to go. Wilson probably can't.

[cherdano]

jjbrr, on 2015-February-07, 00:06, said:

thoughts on 538's hubris of attempting to solve the GOAT argument in a single article?

Pretty silly. This kind of post would makes sense in baseball, where WAR has a good theoretical and empirical basis for estimating the value of a player. But even leaving that aside, the "leverage index" is such a random choice...

The problem with 538 is that sometimes mathematical models add insights, and sometimes they don't. But once you have set up a site like 538, you have to write a post in either case. I mean, just compare this discussion of the two big end of game coaching decisions with the one by ESPN's most well-known columnist.
Bill Simmons' take wins on every aspect - it is more intelligent, more enlightening, more interesting, and more entertaining to read.

[jjbrr]

Yeah that retro diary is hilarious

[mgoetze]

cherdano, on 2015-February-07, 05:40, said:

Pretty silly. This kind of post would makes sense in baseball, where WAR has a good theoretical and empirical basis for estimating the value of a player. But even leaving that aside, the "leverage index" is such a random choice...

Even in baseball people love to forget/ignore that a 2010 replacement player would have been a superstar in 1910. For me, there is really no gain in comparing any modern athlete to any athlete from before I was born. They were different people, they achieved things in a different environment. I wasn't around back then so I don't care. It's highly doubtful that I'll still be watching football in 50 years so why should I care how people are going to think about Tom Brady then (i.e. his "legacy")? It's all so pointless.

[mike777]

I just note it has been announced that the Chicago little league cheated and has vacated the USA wins.



1) I grew up in this area and boundary on the south side
2) This organization did not exist when I played.
3) I played for Palmer Park


I lived here at the extreme upper right side of the map.

http://www.chicagopa...ark/#c9uowe8eyv

http://www.chicagopa...ark/#ezsokykn8q

[hrothgar]

FWIW, my grand boss is a very passionate football fan who spends a lot of time analyzing games.
(He's also very smart so I have reason to believe that he is well informed).

Here's a few quick comments that he made.


1. He buys into the "game theoretic" analysis of the play in question. At that point in time Seattle was forced to pass to create uncertainty about pass versus run in future plays.

2. The real criminal offense was Seattle's time management earlier during the drive that forced them into this position

3. The interception was a thing of beauty, however, a lot of credit needs to go to another NE Defensive player who set the play up through his blocking

[jjbrr]

Suh to Miami is so scary as a pats fan. ridley/mayo notwithstanding the patriots ran hot with dodging injuries to key players when it mattered last season, but a season with two games each against elite D buffalo and elite D miami is just the thing we don't want to see.

wilfork likely out of NE seems like the right move, but man he's a great guy. gonna miss him if he doesn't take a big cut to re-sign. wish him all the best.

also gl to MJD. one of the greats, but it was rough watching his corpse in oakland trying to hang on.

[Cyberyeti]

jjbrr, on 2015-March-05, 23:44, said:

Suh to Miami is so scary as a pats fan. ridley/mayo notwithstanding the patriots ran hot with dodging injuries to key players when it mattered last season, but a season with two games each against elite D buffalo and elite D miami is just the thing we don't want to see.

wilfork likely out of NE seems like the right move, but man he's a great guy. gonna miss him if he doesn't take a big cut to re-sign. wish him all the best.

also gl to MJD. one of the greats, but it was rough watching his corpse in oakland trying to hang on.

Just have to hope Suh's suspended for doing something silly when you play them.