[antonylee]

Zelandakh, on 2013-January-30, 02:35, said:

Thanks very much Antony!

From the results, it seems like we should probably be playing 5♣ at IMPs and 4♥ at MPs.

Actually even if we forget the double-dummy considerations it seems like you'll want to play 4M even at imps -- you're losing 10 imps 2% of the times but winning 1 88-93%, which is clearly positive.

[Zelandakh]

Siegmund, on 2013-January-30, 22:35, said:

and now responder really ought to be scared of playing 3NT, if opener chose to advertise club values rather than diamond values.

Am not sure about this - would Opener bid differently with the ♦K instead of the ♠K? Even then, it seems more logical to me to play in our AJxxx suit (opposite 2) rather than JTxx (opposite 3).

[Siegmund]

Quote

Am not sure about this - would Opener bid differently with the ♦K instead of the ♠K?

If he had Axx Qx AKx AJTxx, then no, the auction probably would be the same as it is here. (Now, if opener's diamonds were KQx or something, then he would have bid 3D rather than 3C, to show a holding that would be more useful in 3NT than in 4M if partner is short in diamonds, and we'd play 3NT.)
If the auction wasn't the same as it is here, it would result in opener bidding 4S over 2D: maximum, all values working (3S, 2H, pure holdings in both minors.) That would have been the system bid after 1NT-2D-2H-2S (responder showing 5-5 invitational) but here opener should avoid blasting to 4S because he is aware of the risk it may be a 4-3 fit.

Quote

Even then, it seems more logical to me to play in our AJxxx suit (opposite 2) rather than JTxx (opposite 3).

Possibly so. It comes down to responder has to pick a game of his choice opposite 17 or 18 and 3-2 in the majors, and a hint that partner has medium club cards but aces and spaces in diamonds. My responder won't know anything about the suit quality in either spades or hearts.

Here again it's a spot where responder's instinctive urge is to rush to 3NT, but I'm hoping opener's choice of 3C-vs-3D will help responder choose sensibly. I don't have any firm conviction what responder really would do, as far as spades vs. hearts. Straube can score it as whichever of 4H or 4S he thinks is fairer. I lean toward 4S as the more likely table result, in large part because opener might have dragged us there himself bidding as if partner had to be 5-5.

[Lord Molyb]

Molybdenum Forcing Pass System:
S ---- N
P --- 1♣ (opening, 0-bad 12)
1♠? --- 1NT (19-21?, GF)
2NT --- 3♦ (balanced, transfer)
3♥ --- 3♠ (finish transfer, 5+♥ 4+♠)
3NT --- P

[CamHenry]

Unnamed Homebrew Diamond:
1♦-1♠ 16+, non-GF / 8+ almost any
1N-2♦ 17-19 bal / transfer
2♥-2♠ no 4-card support / second suit
2N-3♦ No major fit yet found / shortness, implying 4=5=1=3 shape
4♦-4♥ Implicit club fit, 5 or 7 CPs / 4-5 CPs
4♠-4N 7 CPs, second-round ♠ control / second-round control in a suit past 5♣
6♣ Should be enough

Various things could go better (or go wrong): S could bid 3NT instead of 4♦; S could decide not to look for slam despite the control-rich hand and useful values, so we play 5♣.

[CamHenry]

I'm surprised that 5♣ does so badly in the simulations. The dangerous lead is a heart; if you let that run and a diamond comes back you have to guess trumps for the overtrick. On normal splits I can see several lines of play for 6♣ here: if the ♥K is onside it's easy; if not, you have to guess trumps but you can combine chances (e.g. win a ♦ lead in hand, run the ♥Q). Is my analysis flawed?

[PrecisionL]

Upgraded Ultra Club Relay (C3):

1♣ = 16+ Pass 1NT = Majors or any 5-5 & G.F. Pass 2♣ = puppet staymanish pass 2♦ = 5+♥ & 4♠ Pass 2♥ = DAB pass 2NT = 4=5=1=3 Pass 3♥ = Beta Pass 3NT = 3 Controls Pass 4♥ ALL PASS

Final contract = 4♥ by South

[Zelandakh]

CamHenry, on 2013-February-28, 06:59, said:

I'm surprised that 5♣ does so badly in the simulations. The dangerous lead is a heart; if you let that run and a diamond comes back you have to guess trumps for the overtrick. On normal splits I can see several lines of play for 6♣ here: if the ♥K is onside it's easy; if not, you have to guess trumps but you can combine chances (e.g. win a ♦ lead in hand, run the ♥Q). Is my analysis flawed?

The sims are done from South's point of view so the only things known about the North hand are the shape and approximate strength. And the sim result for 5♣ is 90-95%; it is not what I would call bad.

[CamHenry]

Zelandakh, on 2013-March-01, 04:13, said:

The sims are done from South's point of view so the only things known about the North hand are the shape and approximate strength. And the sim result for 5♣ is 90-95%; it is not what I would call bad.

OK, that makes more sense. Thanks! So it's the fact that N has shown 8+, 4-5 CPs, and second-round control in at least one red suit that means we can bid 6♣ with some degree of confidence.