Posted 2014-October-16, 10:21
Almost certainly partner has 5 spades; most people are playing LOTT RONF raises of preempts these days. One of two cases applies here:
- we need to make a good score because we have game (partner's spades are not-much-wasted, and we can run clubs in 3NT or 4♥ or make 5♣; or partner's spades are huge and there are a lot of 800s)
- this is a trap, and a plus score is A+.
If the first case, we need to do something; the chance we're getting 800 out of this, even with the bad break is small (and the chance partner's passing a double is high); 3♣.
If the second case, we're in an A+ position already (okay, maybe we're +100 into +110 or +140, or -110 into -100, but partner's not going to let us out under game, are they?), and any call could convert A+ to bottom (or top, of course).
I think if the opponents are in the boat (as opposed to playing EHAA or multi with 2M nat very weak, or something), and we can assume this is a field auction, than we're more likely in the second case than the first. Partner needs controls for all his points for us to be making game, and either hard stoppers in spades (for 3NT) or nothing (for round suit games). Also, if we're wrong, we're not going to be wrong 100 a trick.
I'm taking my "plus", and apologizing if it's +300.
When I go to sea, don't fear for me, Fear For The Storm -- Birdie and the Swansong (tSCoSI)