[mgoetze]

---

[gnasher]

On this round I'll just bid my cards. 5♥.

[BillPatch]

While I like 5♥ surely I would consider the type of scoring, state of the match, skill level of opponents, and their preempting style before I could commit to avoiding a timely pass. At a minimum, matchpoints or other, and pairs or teams should be specified on these questions.

if the opponents were vulnerable I would be willing to trust the surety of their game and commit to 5 ♥.

[mgoetze]

 BillPatch, on 2015-August-16, 16:55, said:

While I like 5♥ surely I would consider the type of scoring, state of the match, skill level of opponents, and their preempting style before I could commit to avoiding a timely pass. At a minimum, matchpoints or other, and pairs or teams.

Got this hand in bidding practice, so East and West hands were bid by GIBs. I really don't see how the form of scoring makes a big difference here, if you bid differently at MP pairs and IMP pairs I'd love to hear both versions.

[billw55]

 mgoetze, on 2015-August-16, 17:00, said:

Got this hand in bidding practice, so East and West hands were bid by GIBs. I really don't see how the form of scoring makes a big difference here, if you bid differently at MP pairs and IMP pairs I'd love to hear both versions.

Even without calculating, it seems obvious at IMPs that the odds will favor bidding. Possible game both ways? Equal vul? When in doubt, bid one more.

At matchpoints, it's more of a guessing game. I will try to guess which action my current partner will approve of

[ggwhiz]

5♥ is anywhere from a double game swing to a VERY large phantom sac if east is bidding on short(ish) spades and power.

That said, I don't always look both ways when crossing the street so I'm in and my partner will understand. The odds favor partner not being able to bid because of their spade holding with or without values.

[Fluffy]

5♥ seems obvious to me. Even if wrong we might not make the last mistake, partner is also there to make his own!

[rmnka447]

There's no way to know if RHO is sacrificing or bidding to make. But looking at a 5 loser hand with no ♠ losers, I'm not sitting for 4 ♠. So I'm bidding 5 ♥.

[mgoetze]

OK, good, I bid 5♥ too. Partner raised to 6♥ on his AKx Axx Tx KTxxx, making unless the opps somehow find a club lead. Does anyone think he should have acted directly over 2♠?

[broze]

Yes. Imo it is an auto 2N. AKAK and a 5 card suit. Only bean counters need 15 to 2NT.

[neilkaz]

Hmmm 7-4 with a void in their trumps. This void makes me bid 5♥ as a two way shot. I'd feel much better with another honor in my suit, but..... oh well.

[BillPatch]

Ran a simulation of 20 as an imp match on Jack. Subsequent bidding and opening leads by Jack, remainder of play Double Dummy. The 5♥ overcall won by 105-25, an average win of 4 imps per board. Jack did not select the overcall, which should be no surprise. Assumed methods on bot sides BWS2001. Some stats: pass over 4 ♠ always ended auction, and 4♠ made 75%. The overcaller played in 5♥ 25%, 5♥ doubled 10%, 6♥ 5%. The preemptors took insurance against 6♥ 20% (probably phantom in each case). In the remaining hands the contract was 5♠ or 5♠ doubled.

Edit: Did not see partner's hand given before running sim.

[Fluffy]

 broze, on 2015-August-17, 18:42, said:

Yes. Imo it is an auto 2N. AKAK and a 5 card suit. Only bean counters need 15 to 2NT.

I wouldn't ridicule bean counters if I wasn't able to see AK on opps suit has no positional advantage. AK in opps suit is a bad stopper, not only don't you have anything to upgrade, but also opener will have unexpected outside values when his suit is bad.

[Fluffy]

 mgoetze, on 2015-August-17, 18:01, said:

OK, good, I bid 5♥ too. Partner raised to 6♥ on his AKx Axx Tx KTxxx, making unless the opps somehow find a club lead. Does anyone think he should have acted directly over 2♠?

I wouldn't mind a 3♣ overcall. Also I am not sure this is a clear raise to 6♥, on this hand it made because ♠AK, ♥A, third heart and doubleton diamond all produced tricks. And even then it is down double dummy.

With equal vulnerability chances of spades being 6430 is great, so foreseeing the wastage is not that hard. On the other hand I am seeing a lot of hands lately where AK vs void is not wasted at all, so I am reconsidering my position.

[BillPatch]

 Fluffy, on 2015-August-18, 07:58, said:

I wouldn't ridicule bean counters if I wasn't able to see AK on opps suit has no positional advantage. AK in opps suit is a bad stopper, not only don't you have anything to upgrade, but also opener will have unexpected outside values when his suit is bad.

Normally I would tend to avoid upgrading 2nd position over a weak 2, because the 15-18 range for 2NT already large enough. But the actual AKx in opps suit is a better stopper than AK, and one of the two tens is well placed with a higher honor in a five card suit. (While the AKx is not a plus for a suit contract, if partner does have a hand to consider playing ♥, the most likely suit contract, 2NT certainly does not overstate the hand for that contract. I prefer 2NT to 3C, and 3C to pass.

[cherdano]

Partner had two interesting decisions, we had none. We got assigned the wrong hand

I am sure I would pass over 2S - doesn't mean I know it's right, but I need more than AKx in their suit and a KTxxx suit to upgrade to a NT overcall at the 2-level with 14 hcp. I am doubtful about raising 5♥ - I think it's right to pass, partner should bid with much less. (Game/competing before slam.)

[BillPatch]

 cherdano, on 2015-August-18, 15:13, said:

Partner had two interesting decisions, we had none. We got assigned the wrong hand

I am sure I would pass over 2S - doesn't mean I know it's right, but I need more than AKx in their suit and a KTxxx suit to upgrade to a NT overcall at the 2-level with 14 hcp. I am doubtful about raising 5♥ - I think it's right to pass, partner should bid with much less. (Game/competing before slam.)

I agree that it's right to pass 5♥, partner could bid with less with a higher Offense Defense Ratio, and might have found a bid others would not find, in which case bidding the slam would gain few imps or MPs.

[rmnka447]

 mgoetze, on 2015-August-17, 18:01, said:

OK, good, I bid 5♥ too. Partner raised to 6♥ on his AKx Axx Tx KTxxx, making unless the opps somehow find a club lead. Does anyone think he should have acted directly over 2♠?

I'd also pass over 5 ♥. The key question for me would be -- Can I be sure there aren't more than 1 loser? Looking at ♦ xx and ♣ K10xxx, I just can't come up with an answer of "Yes".

I'd also probably pass over 2 ♠. 3 ♣ is a bit of a crap shoot with such a poor suit. I also have trouble upgrading to a 2 NT bid.