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Going for 450

#1 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 08:16

The National Teams Congress is approaching, to get everyone in the right mood, here's a BAM problem:



Do you want the better fit or do you want 30 per trick?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 08:32

When I saw the title, I wondered how you'd perpetrated 3N-9 :)

What would 4N by partner have meant ? Is 5 likely to be 5-5 ? If so a lot of the time you can make 5 you can make 6 (x, AKJxx, KQxxx, xx for example)
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#3 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 08:36

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-December-28, 08:32, said:

What would 4N by partner have meant ? Is 5 likely to be 5-5 ?

Haven't discussed those questions.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#4 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 10:02

agree 6d.

It seems I have extras at this point of the bidding.
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#5 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 10:16

while we have no idea if p is sacrificing or bidding to make, we do know p began with inv+. This greatly increases the chance p is bidding to make and p had to be somewhat cautious because we have never had the opportunity to define our hand (ie the hand could be a misfit). Our hand is so pluperfectly? perfect I would actually bid 6c (cant be misunderstood since with a self sufficient club suit I could have bid 5c over 4s) in an attempt to reach a grand slam. It is BAM so the risk factor is minimal and if p 5d bid makes much sense 6d should be simple and 7d very close.
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#6 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 16:57

Partner is doubling most of the time with 5-5 and a good hand I think esp at this vul (eg x AKxxx KQxxx xx given earlier seems like a double?). It seems like he will often be 6-5. It's a very weird problem but the options are 6D or pass, not 5H or pass. Normally with 0553 partner would bid 4N if they didn't have enough defense to X, but I think with nebulous club that doesn't really work. Not sure what I'd do.
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#7 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 20:10

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-28, 08:16, said:

The National Teams Congress is approaching, to get everyone in the right mood, here's a BAM problem:
Do you want the better fit or do you want 30 per trick?
I rank
  • 6 = Hoping that partner has at least x A K x x x K J x x x x x.
  • 5 = In case partner has x K J x x x K Q J x x K x.
  • Pass .

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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-December-28, 20:25

View Postnige1, on 2015-December-28, 20:10, said:

I rank
  • 6 = Hoping that partner has at least x A K x x x K J x x x x x.
  • 5 = In case partner has x K J x x x K Q J x x K x.
  • Pass .



I don't fancy 5 that much on 2 for a couple of reasons.

1: potential diamond ruff
2: 2 rounds of spades and you may lose control if hearts are 4-1.

If hearts are 4-1 and they find the ruff, 5 may go off too, but the singleton diamond lead with the other hand having A looks far from improbable.
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#9 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-29, 02:45

View PostPhantomSac, on 2015-December-28, 16:57, said:

Normally with 0553 partner would bid 4N if they didn't have enough defense to X, but I think with nebulous club that doesn't really work.

Right, our general philosophy is to bid on the assumption that partner opened a weak NT, so the prototypical shape for 4NT would probably be 0544.
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#10 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-29, 02:46

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-December-28, 20:25, said:

I don't fancy 5 that much on 2 for a couple of reasons.

1: potential diamond ruff
2: 2 rounds of spades and you may lose control if hearts are 4-1.

If hearts are 4-1 and they find the ruff, 5 may go off too, but the singleton diamond lead with the other hand having A looks far from improbable.

Aren't these the sorts of considerations that should easily convince you at IMPs but must be weighed very carefully at BAM?
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-December-29, 05:41

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-29, 02:46, said:

Aren't these the sorts of considerations that should easily convince you at IMPs but must be weighed very carefully at BAM?


I feel the number of hands where 5 is better than 50:50 and 6 doesn't make is pretty small, so you're aiming at a very small target, although 5 in practice will make more often than its theoretical odds.

Whether you should play 5 or 6 on the other hand is not so clear, I'd probably try 6 depending on what I knew about partner.
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#12 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-29, 06:13

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-December-29, 05:41, said:

I'd probably try 6 depending on what I knew about partner.

I had the South hand, so you can go ahead and read my 4600+ posts on this forum if you need to know more. :P
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#13 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-30, 10:58

So my actual hand as South was - KJxxx QJxxx Kxx. With the singleton K onside and hearts 3-2, 12 tricks were available in either red suit. But it seems noone is getting to 6.
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#14 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-December-30, 11:05

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-30, 10:58, said:

So my actual hand as South was - KJxxx QJxxx Kxx. With the singleton K onside and hearts 3-2, 12 tricks were available in either red suit. But it seems noone is getting to 6.


A with the K I presume, otherwise you can't make 6.

Looks like 6 scores well.
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