This hand was already discussed here original thread with poll
and the poll results were that:
- 50% of readers would lead a club, 46% a diamond, 4% a heart
- 96% do not think that knowing that S would double 5H suggests one lead over another.
I'm a recently qualified Director and this was my first call to table for a Change of Call - of course it couldn't be simple
I was called by South, who explained that East had bid 5♥ which he had doubled, but then East attempted to change the call to 5♦. I asked West if he had made a call after the double - he had not - and then asked East what had happened. East said that his intention was to bid 5♦ but that the 5♥ card had remained attached to the block of cards he extracted and that he decided to place the block safely on the table before removing the extra card - before he could remove it South quickly pulled out double. South thought his tempo was normal. I found East's explanation of his error credible and also remembered from the hand diagram that East had a strong holding in diamonds, so I ruled that substitution with 5♦ was allowed and that South could withdraw the Double if he wished, which he did. I reminded the table that information from the withdrawn double was authorised to NS but not authorised to EW and asked them to continue the auction, which proceeded as shown. At that point I told them to play on and call me at the end.
Back at my table I looked at the hand diagram and realised that a ♣ lead could make an extra undertrick. I couldn't see any good reason why the withdrawn double might suggest one lead over another, but I figured that if they did find the extra trick I would have to establish what the LAs were and whether ♣ was demonstrably suggested. Back to the table and luckily they had led ♦ for contract down one, like the rest of the room so far (one pair would get the clubs right later), so I happily convalidated the score.
I have a suspicion I got off lightly, though. Did I do anything wrong as things went? Say they did get the clubs right, would I have to poll their peers to establish the LAs for the lead, or could I go by the leads on the (complete) score card? I would say that West is a peer of at least half the room. What if all peers polled say they would lead ♦? How should I phrase the poll question to establish whether ♣ was demonstrably suggested over ♦ by the UI?