[pilowsky]

The R0 is an indicator of transmissibility and depends on many factors. Here is a good explanation.https://theconversat...l-useful-138542
You may also be interested in this story about a group trapped on a cruise to the Antarctic with 1 infected individual. https://lighthouse.m...ptoms-new-study
It is redolent of the story about the Louis Slotin at the Manhattan project who accidentally exposed his colleagues to enormous amounts of radiation and then used their location to study the effect,
The R0 is an epidemiological tool rather than a fixed number. It is affected by the environment, and by the susceptibility of the individuals. If the individuals are all immune then no-one will be infected - this is why social distancing works. If the virus mutates and becomes more virulent then the R0 can increase. If people are packed together on Troop carriers as they were in at the end of WW1 then the consequences are disastrous.

[FelicityR]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-June-07, 03:55, said:

The R-value is nothing to do with deaths, it's to do with cases of infection which are so many times (>100x) the number of deaths that what's going on in care homes is a small blip. In care homes a much higher proportion die because they tend to be old and/or vulnerable. It's also extremely difficult to calculate because of insufficient testing, the disease looks much more dangerous than it is because most cases are mild and never get tested. Icelandic data suggests the real number of cases is 15-20 times the number you pick up if you only test people with symptoms.

You are right saying that the R-value has nothing to do with deaths per se, but the data used to calculate the R-value includes deaths.

https://publichealth...g-of-the-virus/

As the link says, the R-value is also only one component of the transmissibility of the disease. And you also right saying the disease is more dangerous than appears due to the number of people who have mild symptoms and never get tested. Which proves that widescale testing, as that was practised in Germany in the early days of the pandemic and throughout it's development, seems one of the best ways of determining whether the disease is spreading controllably or uncontrollably.

[pilowsky]

I think that you will find that the R0 is the index of transmissibility. Full-stop.Not just a component of it. The size of the R0 varies depending on the situation. In some situations transmissibility can be higher or lower. None of this has anything to do with death or survival, or anything else. See previous post.

[cherdano]

FelicityR, on 2020-June-07, 02:35, said:

I am sure you're method of calculating is as accurate as possible, and I am no whizz with statistics, but I read today that up to 20,000 of all covid-19 cases deaths happened in a care or social home environment. (Daily Mirror Online) Tragic, yes, but if this figure is factored in to R-value it distorts it greatly - surely?

I think most of us will agree that the government has handled this badly, but the need to get the country up and running again is paramount now. If anything, the best way to control the further spread of covid-19 is to concentrate on the pockets of infections in the country where the R-value is increasing.

This is a good question. I agree care homes should be thought of as a separate category - in principle, spread in care homes should get controlled by appropriate PPE and by regularly testing all care workers. That this still isn't done should be a bigger scandal.

But the Zoe/KCL numbers I used for my calculations excludes care homes. Thus, in first approximation the Rt I computed also excludes care homes.

The modelling commissioned by the government to compute R is, I think, based on death counts. My method has the disadvantage that it relies on the zoe app getting a representative slice of the population. But it has the advantage that it is more up to date - symptoms come much earlier than deaths, obviously. And death counts also depend on effectiveness of care, and measure to a large extent the spread among the most vulnerable population. [Nerd corner: someone should set up a model to test whether my method to compute R has predictive value for those later obtained by death counts.]

[Cyberyeti]

A friend of mine's daughter who was a final year medical student pressed into service early to work in the NHS was shocked to find out that she had tested positive for the virus, she is totally asymptomatic. The number of cases detected needs to be adjusted for the increased number of tests, it appears the 7 day rolling death rate may be a better indication of how we're doing.

[pilowsky]

To understand this better, please read the second link in my earlier post.

[Cyberyeti]

pilowsky, on 2020-June-07, 17:10, said:

To understand this better, please read the second link in my earlier post.

I understand what is in that article, the Icelandic study already showed that. The point I was making was that if you multiply the amount of tests by a significant number in a month or two, you wouldn't expect the number of positives shown to be dropping as fast as it actually is, you're just catching a higher proportion of them.

[pilowsky]

Yes, I see what you mean, smoothing averages of various kinds are helpful. These are different statistics from the R0.

[y66]

Reuters said:

New Zealand lifts all social and economic restrictions except border controls after declaring it is free of the coronavirus, one of the first countries in the world to return to pre-pandemic normality https://reut.rs/3h5czqq 1/3

[shyams]

https://www.bbc.co.u...health-52993734

Quote

Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows. The study, by the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium (Cog-UK), completely quashes the idea that a single "patient zero" started the whole UK outbreak.

The analysis also finds China, where the pandemic started, had a negligible impact on cases in the UK. Instead those initial cases came mostly from European countries.

The researchers analysed the genetic code of viral samples taken from more than 20,000 people infected with coronavirus in the UK. Then, like a gigantic version of a paternity test, the geneticists attempted to piece together the virus's massive family tree. This was combined with data on international travel to get to the origins of the UK epidemic.

They found the UK's coronavirus epidemic did not have one origin - but at least 1,356 origins. On each of those occasions somebody brought the infection into the UK from abroad and the virus began to spread as a result. The imported cases each started off a chain of transmission where the virus is passed from one person, to the next, to the next and so on.

And the UK Govt. has preemptively[*1] decided to enforce[*2] a quarantine on all[*3] those entering the UK starting early June

[*1] This is my dig at the "competent handling" by the UK Govt.
[*2] The media and many health experts have strongly suggested that the UK quarantine procedure is so full of holes as to be unenforceable.
[*3] There are various exclusions incorporated into the quarantine rules and a decent proportion of people entering the country will not need to quarantine.

[FelicityR]

shyams, on 2020-June-10, 08:54, said:

https://www.bbc.co.u...health-52993734



And the UK Govt. has preemptively[*1] decided to enforce[*2] a quarantine on all[*3] those entering the UK starting early June

[*1] This is my dig at the "competent handling" by the UK Govt.

I found this yesterday evening and it made both my husband and myself thoroughly chuckle. A little light relief from everything that is happening in the world at the moment. 125 cartoons. Hope you enjoy as much as us

https://www.standard...s-a3530851.html

[hrothgar]

Looks like the idiots down in ACBL District 7 have decided to go ahead with regionals in Atlanta and South Carolina in August / September.

The claim is that this isn't being forced by financial exigency.
They are genuinely this stupid.

[Trinidad]

hrothgar, on 2020-June-13, 04:53, said:

Looks like the idiots down in ACBL District 7 have decided to go ahead with regionals in Atlanta and South Carolina in August / September.

The claim is that this isn't being forced by financial exigency.
They are genuinely this stupid.

My region has been hit early and hard in this pandemic. At the end of March, the hospitals were overflowing and patients have been transported to hospitals in the rest of the country, as well as neighboring Germany.
However, at the moment everything is calm. In the past 30 days, 6 people from the region have been hospitalized with Covid-19 on a population of about 660 thousand. That means that we can almost count them on one hand. For the past month, the hospitalization rate has been 0.03 per 100 000 inhabitants per day.

We are thinking of starting the bridge clubs again. There will be strict measures, but about 60 people would meet to play the game again. Of course, all these people are locals. Many players in the club are related to each other and there are quite a few husband-wife pairs. This means that these people are not "60 individuals": If some of these people would get infected at the bridge club, there is a fair chance that they would have been infected during the next week from heaving coffee together, meeting at a restaurant or from running into each other at the supermarket. Their distance to each other is already relatively small. So, if the bridge night would lead to an outbreak, there is a decent chance that this outbreak would have happened anyway.

So, the baord of my club is seriously considering taking this relatively small step.

I don't know where South Carolina and Georgia stand in this pandemic. But a regional attracts large amounts of people (far more than 60) that are otherwise socially distanced. They come from all over the place to stay in hotels to meet people during a week for 8+ hours a day. Now, Bill from Auburn in Alabama can infect George from Chattanooga, TN, Mary from Dublin, GA and Carol-Ann from Aiken, SC while playing in the Atlanta regional. In addition, he will infect Kate from Atlanta who was standing too close to Bill while waiting for the bus when she went to work, and John from Tallahassee, an engineer who was doing maintenance at Coca-Cola and was sitting at the next table during breakfast. These are all people that Bill would have never met this year, if it weren't for the Atlanta regional.

If one person at the regional is contageous then that will lead to outbreaks spread over 5 or 6 states, that otherwise would have never happened.

I would not want to be the organizer of this event and I would not want to be Bill, George, Mary or Carol-Ann who spread a disease because they wanted to play a card game. Neither would I want to be Kate or John, who were innocent victims and only went out to contribute to the economy.

And I cannot understand why the organizers think that it is a great idea to take this giant leap, unless they think that Covid-19 is some kind of hoax.

Rik

[0 carbon]

- Some information I have assembled -
Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue.
Reopen....the morgues. How much longer will some of them live? + parents, grandparents, docs, nurses...?
Stay Home message easy for some, esp hermits like me, much harder with kids or no job. But if people gather, then millions will die, including your elderly relatives, your doctor, nurses, plus those who need health care but can't get it.
Stay home? Enjoy the cleaner air, the quiet roads, the time to contemplate. Make lemonade of your lemons. Work up a sweat. Keep in touch with friends/family by phone or computer. Check out the moon with binoculars. Listen for the birds at dawn.
Grow tomatoes & basil. And play bridge
=== OUT & ABOUT ===
Main Covid19 danger is indoors. Avoid 10+ minutes in same room with people you do not live with. www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them + wash hands.
Outdoors risks small if 2m distance + don't draft other runners/cyclists + avoid any crowds.
https://safepaths.mit.edu MIT app tracks your movements privately on your phone. If you get sick, u can provide last 28 days to public health. There are similar purpose apps by several governments that use Bluetooth to ID close contacts.
Wear a mask outside or living with sick/traveller:Medical mask best,but any helps. Dry 3 days between uses. This will kill the virus, which needs moisture. Take off to dry & DO NOT TOUCH for 3 days. Wash your glasses/goggles,face,hands.
https://coastaleyegr...a-simple-guide/
www.slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/
www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-DIY-face-mask-ppe.html
Use Stairs NOT elevator.
Keep 2+m away from others.
Bike/walk NOT bus/rail/plane.
Exercise,stretch for body & mind
Cough/sneeze into elbow/tissue/mask
Use elbows,shoulders at doors,keys to push buttons
Clean hands at every opportunity when outside--See some Purell/hand santiser? Use!
Don't visit people in person--Skype/Facetime/Whatsapp/Duo/Alexa them, or visit outside.
=== AT HOME ===
Track local health department daily for rules/resources
Take multivitamins,Vitamin C,D Suck zinc lozenges to push away viruses, strengthen immune function. If you do get sick, get doctor's advice.
Covid19 monitoring:Symptoms+Temperature+a $30 pulse oximeter for blood oxygen % Use on thickest digit or earlobe.
www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/well/live/coronavirus-pulse-oximeter-oxygen.html
www.consumerreports.org/medical-symptoms/covid-19-pulse-oximeters-oxygen-levels-faq
www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/why-dont-some-coronavirus-patients-sense-their-alarmingly-low-oxygen-levels
Face down position helps O2 www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32320506
Preparation: www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/public-health-topics/resources/Images/corona/Prep-for-Pandemic-COVID-19-Factsheet_EN-v10.pdf
=== TESTED POSITIVE? ===
It might get really bad in a few days. If you have any shortness of breath, get to a hospital.
https://www.business...patients-2020-2
https://www.webmd.co...home-hospital#1
=== COVID-19 INFO ===
Simple Covid19 explanation www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY
Detailed: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPgo-o
https://elemental.me...ng-2c4032481ab2
https://www.statnews...raphic-factors/
The 399 patients with at least one additional disease (including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, and cancer) had a 79% greater chance of requiring intensive care or a respirator or both, or of dying, they reported last week in a paper posted to medRxiv, a preprint site that posts research before it has been peer-reviewed. The 130 with two or more additional diseases had 2.5 times the risk of any of those outcomes.
... Happy Earth day, tellurians!
cancer raises the risk 3.5-fold, COPD 2.6-fold, and diabetes and hypertension by about 60%
During the height of the epidemic in Wuhan, 37 of 230 patients receiving dialysis for kidney failure at Renmin Hospital developed the disease. Even though none were sick enough to require intensive care or a mechanical ventilator, six of them died, for a very high fatality rate of 16%. Oddly, however, none of the six died of pneumonia, Renmin researchers reported. Instead, the causes of death were heart disease, stroke, and high blood levels of potassium (a result of kidney failure). The high fatality rate of Covid-19 in already-sick people might result not from the virus but from an exacerbation of existing disease.
It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.
www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces
CDC said the virus primarily spreads from person-to-person in the following ways:
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs
COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms
=====================================
Covid19 summary from an active surgeon in the fight vs Covid19:
As a health practitioner who is currently looking after COVID-19 patients in the ICU, I spend my days immersed in the science of this infection, how to treat it, the epidemiological statistics, that I often forget that some people don’t spend their days in the science of COVID. For some they are trying to figure out details about this infection from news reports, social media, and word of mouth. And that is such a range of information, it can be hard to sort out the truth from myth. So I’ve thrown together this email to reflect some of the things I know about COVID-19 which might be of help.
First off, COVID-19 is a viral infection caused by SARS-CoV2 virus, which is a highly contagious virus that can be deadly in some people. It appears to be less deadly than Influenza, but more contagious than influenza.
COVID-19 is spread mainly by droplets, essentially the same as the common cold. Tiny particles of virus-laden mucus or saliva come from a person’s mouth or nose, and float through the air and land on surfaces. These particles are saliva or snot containing virus, are about 5-10 microns is size, and travel out about a metre from the infected person’s mouth or nose. At this point they sink down and rain onto nearby surfaces. The virus/mucus particles stay in the air for up to three hours (much less in wind or well ventilated rooms), and are infectious on surfaces for various periods of time, based on the surface material. Eg. up to 72 hours on plastics, 48 hours on stainless steel, and 24 hours on cardboard. Touching an infected surface and then touching another clean surface can transfer the virus. The virus is very susceptible to regular household cleaners though, and cleaning surfaces kill it.
Although people think that you mainly get COVID-19 from being coughed on, that is not likely the case. The vast majority of cases likely result from people getting the virus on their hands from touching surfaces with the virus on them, then touching their mouth, nose, or eyes. The virus enters our bodies from either the mouth nose or eyes, or from getting it on your cheeks or face then wiping it into your mouth nose or eyes with hands, cloth, or pillows.
So the general strategy we are employing to prevent COVID-19 is to stay 2 metres apart so an infected person doesn’t spray droplets on you or you rarely inhale their droplets. We wash our hands to kill the virus from surfaces we have touched and picked it up from. And we don’t touch our face so we don’t put virus from our hands into your system through mouth, nose, or eyes. Sometimes we ask people to wear masks to protects others from our secretions, but the mask doesn’t actually protect us as we will most likely get COVID-19 from our fingers not from the air. You may even touch your face more while wearing a mask as you constantly adjust it, so it is really to protect others. At work I actually also wear goggles all the time to keep me from touching my eyes.
So that is how you get COVID-19 – touching virus-laden surfaces (door handles, gas pumps, money, shopping carts, ATM machines, debit card machines, store products someone else has handled, chip bags, counter tops, shaking hands, etc) and then touching your mouth, nose, or eyes inadvertently before you have had a chance to clean your hands. But what about what happens once you get it. So first off, once you have put the virus into your mouth nose or eyes it takes a number of days to get sick, as the virus needs to multiply in the cells of the lining of your airway, mouth, nose, sinuses etc. This usually takes between 2 and 9 days to happen, with an average of about five. During that time you appear to have increasing infectivity to others, initially low, then higher as the virus multiplies in your system and some of the particles are shed from your body.
Before I go on, I wanted to explain when people say symptoms of COVID-19, what exactly do they mean. Well there have been a number of studies done, especially looking at some decent sized groups of patients, and here are the initial symptoms with the percentage of people that get them:
85.5 % - fever greater than 38 Celsius
88 % - loss of smell or taste or both
68.6 % - dry cough
35.8 % - muscle aches or significant fatigue. Often the muscles that usually bother you from time to time, like back or neck. Like your usual muscle aches just more constant and worse
28.2 % - coughing up phlegm
21.9 % - shortness of breath. Getting winded walking or going up stairs
12.1 % - dizziness
4.8 % - diarrhea or loose stools
3.9 % - nausea and / or vomitting
BUT REMEMBER, SOME PEOPLE DON’T HAVE ANY SYMPTOMS, ESPECIALLY SOME YOUNG PEOPLE
Now what about when you get infected, what does a case of it look like. Although the science isn’t clear on this, there appears to be four different types of severity of COVID-19 cases as follows (this is just a best guess based on the science):
1) No symptoms to Mild Symptoms: The first five days (on average) you have no symptoms with increasing level of infectivity. Then after about five days, and until a total of about 14 days, you are infective to others with very mild symptoms. Sniffles, frog in your throat, etc. What is important here is that you are CONTAGIOUS FOR ABOUT 14 DAYS WITHOUT ANY REAL SYMPTOMS
2). Mild to Moderate Symptoms: The first five days (on average) you have no symptoms with increasing level of infectivity. For the next five days you have symptoms like listed above and generally feel pretty poorly. Then you generally get better. However you are contagious for about 3 weeks, but you are CONTAGIOUS FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS
3) Severe Symptoms: The first five days (on average) you have no symptoms with increasing level of infectivity. You then have a 4-day period of increasing severity of those symptoms above. It’s bad with horrible fevers and sweats, feeling of doom, increasing trouble breathing, and then by about day 9 since the original date of infection you end up needing to go into the hospital. Generally you are in the hospital for about two weeks then can go home, but you are contagious for about 25 days total from when you first got infected, but you are CONTAGIOUS FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.
4) Critical Illness: The first five days (on average) you have no symptoms with increasing level of infectivity. Then over about three days you develop severe shortness of breath and require urgent hospital admission and quickly after hospital you are moved to the ICU and put on life support. You will be on life support 3 weeks to two months and will either come off life support or die during your ICU stay. Importantly, you are CONTAGIOUS FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS WITHOUT SYMPTOMS.
The tough part of all this is the fact that what severity category you are in between 1,2,3,or 4 is very much based on age. The older you are, the greater the chance you are in a severe category. It break out like this:
For people age 10-19 who are healthy there is a 0.2 % death rate
For people age 20-29 who are healthy there is a 0.2 % death rate
For people age 30-39 who are healthy there is a 0.2 % death rate
For people age 40-49 who are healthy there is a 0.4 % death rate
For people age 50-59 who are healthy there is a 1.3 % death rate
For people age 60-69 who are healthy there is a 3.6 % death rate
For people age 70-79 who are healthy there is a 8 % death rate
For people over 80 who are healthy there is about a 15-22 % death rate
But if you aren’t perfectly healthy, it gets worse.
For people who have previous heart attack or stroke etc , there is an average of 11 % death rate, which gets worse with age
For those people with diabetes there is an average 7.3 % death rate, but it gets worse with age
For those lung disease like emphysema or asthma there is an average 6.3 % death rate, worse with age
For those with high blood pressure needing treatment there is an average 6 % death rate, worse with age
For those who are battling cancer, there is an average 5.6 % death rate, worse with age
So people in their mid 70’s and beyond with a few chronic medical problems could easily have a 33 % chance of dying of they got the disease, and would quickly become a severe case where the 29 year old from whom they contracted the disease could have such a mild case they didn’t know they had it.
The next things I want to talk about is how much COVID-19 is out there. Well the numbers do not look terrible right now, but a recent study from Stanford University in California suggests there could be much larger group of people who are asymptomatic in the community and therefore not being counted as they don’t know they have it, especially if they are young. The actual number could be quite a bit higher. As well, since everyone is asymptomatic but contagious at the beginning, and up to one third of people (maybe) don’t get symptoms, there could be a ton of virus that you come in contact with if you are out and about without ever seeing a person who is sick. That is why the government want you to stay at home. How many of those people at the grocery store or at the drug store are asymptomatic but contagious. There is no way to know.
So far in Ontario today we have 10,010 positive cases with 514 people who have died. Of those 514 who have died, 94% have been over the age of 60. Now many of those have been people whose overall health level is low (eg in a nursing home), however I have already looked after people at death’s door from the virus who were very healthy and active before, the only strike against them is that they were over 70. This is really a virus that preys proportionally on the older members of our population and being a healthy 70 or 80 year old doesn’t necessarily afford you a ton of protection. And yes young people do get this virus, and some do die, but the risk is smaller.
So …. Every member of our society needs to follow the government’s advice and protect yourself. But if you are an older member of our society, especially over the age of 60, you need to take extra special precautions. What for a young person might well be a mild illness with low chance of dying, for those over 60 is a real risk of dying. It’s just not worth it. Stay at home, you never know what surfaces in stores, bank machines, etc have virus on them. Try not to expose yourself to younger people when you don’t have to, as they have a greater chance of having COVID-19 and not being aware. Let your younger family members do your shopping, but let them drop off the goods on your step and leave before you pick them up. Don’t expose yourself. What is a small risk of dying for a very young person, is a serious risk for those older members of our society. Be safe. And the older members of our society best be much more strict and careful than what the government recommendations advise.

[y66]

Quote of the day:

Quote

“It’s a startling result. It will clearly have a massive global impact.” -- Intensive-care physician Kenneth Baillie, who serves on the steering committee of the RECOVERY coronavirus-drug trial, responds to results suggesting that dexamethasone reduces deaths among seriously ill people with COVID-19.

Story: https://go.nature.com/2Y8LxqR

[cherdano]

Wonderful news. Now just 30 more breakthroughs like this, and also much better treatments for milder cases, and covid-19 will indeed be just as dangerous as the flu.

[johnu]

Trinidad, on 2020-June-13, 08:50, said:

I don't know where South Carolina and Georgia stand in this pandemic. But a regional attracts large amounts of people (far more than 60) that are otherwise socially distanced. They come from all over the place to stay in hotels to meet people during a week for 8+ hours a day. Now, Bill from Auburn in Alabama can infect George from Chattanooga, TN, Mary from Dublin, GA and Carol-Ann from Aiken, SC while playing in the Atlanta regional. In addition, he will infect Kate from Atlanta who was standing too close to Bill while waiting for the bus when she went to work, and John from Tallahassee, an engineer who was doing maintenance at Coca-Cola and was sitting at the next table during breakfast. These are all people that Bill would have never met this year, if it weren't for the Atlanta regional.

Georgia and South Carolina have Republican governors who are Manchurian President acolytes. As such, they value reopening the economy above everything else, especially when you are talking about something no more dangerous than the common flu.

Coronavirus live updates: Here’s what to know in South Carolina on June 16

Quote

On Tuesday, the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control reported an additional 595 cases of the virus, continuing the state’s record-breaking streak of new coronavirus cases. DHEC officials have recorded at least 350 new cases each day since June 4.

Quote

State health officials, and S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster, have “urged restaurants to take abundant precautions” but do not currently require restaurant employees to wear masks, The State reports.

Yes, restaurant workers wearing masks would make them look weak, and give customers the impression that the pandemic was dangerous.

Coronavirus cases on the rise again in Georgia

Quote

‘We’re much closer to the beginning than the end of this,’ says expert.

Quote

Georgia’s reported coronavirus cases rose in each of the past two weeks, and clusters of counties across the state have experienced spikes in new cases, state data shows.

The jump in confirmed infections comes amid broader testing for the virus and as the state loosens restrictions on movement and businesses.

The ACBL has nothing to worry about. America has COVID-19 under control. Certainly we will be under the 1 to 2 million deaths that early projections showed. WTP?

[y66]

cherdano, on 2020-June-16, 18:15, said:

Wonderful news. Now just 30 more breakthroughs like this, and also much better treatments for milder cases, and covid-19 will indeed be just as dangerous as the flu.

According to University of Oxford researchers, the use of dexamethasone might have prevented 5,000 UK deaths which is a reduction of approximately 10% so another 9 breakthroughs like that one would bring COVID-19 deaths down to zero. But even if you get the mortality rate below 0.1%, which is the rate for seasonal flu, COVID-19 is still way more dangerous because it can damage many organs, not just lungs, and the neurological system and mental health. Perhaps some of the other 21 breakthroughs you're calling for will help on other fronts.

[smerriman]

Well, not really; with 9 (or 30) more breakthroughs of the same type, you're not going to reduce the rate any more than with 1 breakthrough. Or in fact, it'd probably make it worse, if you plan to give everyone 10 different drugs at the same time..

[pilowsky]

Where do we keep the irony lung?