[lamford]

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From an online pairs. How do you play 7NT on the nine of hearts lead, "probably top of nothing"?

[AL78]

Cash ♥KQ.
♠A and small to dummy
Cash ♥A throwing last spade
Cash three rounds of clubs ending in South.

If jack drops, ♣T is 13th trick, else diamond to ace and cash last spade winner.

If jack drops, ten is 13th trick, else note East's discard. If it is the ♣J, ♣T is the 13th trick, else throw ♣T

If at this stage none of the tens have been promoted or they haven't discarded their winning hearts, either cash ♦KQ or go for the finesse depending on what the defenders discards have told me about their hand shape.

[lamford]

AL78, on 2020-August-14, 10:57, said:

If at this stage none of the tens have been promoted or they haven't discarded their winning hearts, either cash ♦KQ or go for the finesse depending on what the defenders discards have told me about their hand shape.

No jacks will appear, East will discard a diamond on the third club. If you cash the third spade, and discard a club, so will West. If you ask their methods they will say "we don't signal defending slams ..."

[mikeh]

Doing what I can without using pen and paper, I’d cash the KQ hearts, play club K, club Ace, club to the Queen (just in case LHO had a stiff or void club). I’m assuming the club suit hasn’t given me 4 tricks, but I’d know who had the guard.

I’d then play spade Ace, spade to the King. Again, if rho has stiff or void, I can hook LHO. I will assume that cashing the spade Queen still leaves me short but, again, I’ll know who has the guard.

I’m down to a 5 card ending. In dummy I have 10 A7 A5 void and in hand void void KQ103 6.

If the same defender holds guards in two non-diamond suits and Jxxx in diamonds, he’s done already.

So I assume that either that isn’t the case or that I can’t yet read it. Anyway, the heart Ace comes next. I think I can probably infer the heart situation, although it probably won’t be clear.

If rho has the remaining defensive heart, he can’t hold 4 diamonds, so he’d have pitched a diamond by now.

If LHO has the remaining heart, rho can’t keep 4 diamonds and a guard in either black suit, so (again) he’ll have surrendered the diamond suit.

If LHO has the diamonds, then he can’t keep them and a spade or heart guard.

I think I’m down if LHO has something like xx 9xx Jxxx Jxxx but otherwise I’m making.

As for what I’m pitching on the heart Ace, it has to be the club. If rho has the Jack, the club has done its duty already, forcing rho to shed a diamond. If LHO has the jack, I can’t squeeze him out of it, so holding it doesn’t work.


edit: if LHO has both black guards, and assuming he had 2+ hearts, he was either 4=2=3=4 or 4=3=2=4 or 4=4=1=4.

unless he has 4 hearts, so 4=4=1=4, his partner was squeezed in the reds already, and if he was 4=4=1=4, the diamond hook, on the second round of the suit, is 100%....I do need to be able to tell who has the heart guard, and the spots are such that they may not be able to falsecard. At worst, I pay to LHO holding 4=3=Jx=4

[shyams]

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I'd simply come down to this position and throw away dummy's long heart. If either opponent has a minor suit Jack and a 4-card spade, they are dead.

The great advantage of this position is that I have to perform no strenuous calculations or track no discards except the two Jacks.

[nige1]

Lamford 'From an online pairs. How do you play 7NT on the nine of hearts lead, "probably top of nothing"?'
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
My initial guess is Cash ♠A ♥KQ, ♣KAQ. ♦A
Now, the choice of ending depends on who has ♣J.

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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
A If East has ♣J then cash ♠KQ to reach the position on the left.

Cash ♥A in this 4-card ending.
A1. If West has ♠J then ♦s are good.
A2a. If East has ♠J, then discard ♣T unless it's good..
A2b. If ♥7 is good, then cash it.
A2c. Unless a count suggests otherwise, cash ♦KQT.

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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
B. (West has ♣J), so cash ♥A, chucking a ♠, Cross to ♦K to reach the position on left.

Cash ♦Q in this 4 card ending.
B1. Claim if ♥7, ♦T or ♣T become good.
B2. Unless a count suggests otherwise, cash ♠KQT.

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[lamford]

Well, my thoughts at the time were:
Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time.
Holmes: That was the curious incident.

West has led a heart from 98x(x). Despite North bidding Stayman ...

I am going to make it if any jack drops, or if anyone gets automatically squeezed. If East has something like J9xx Jxxx xxx xx I don't think I can make it though.

And I am talking out loud, and don't know what the right line is.

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2020-August-14, 11:14, said:

I think I’m down if LHO has something like xx 9xx Jxxx Jxxx but otherwise I’m making.

You are right, and you are down, but you could have made. And I am not saying for one moment that you should have made. LHO has 9x 98x Jxxx Jxxx. Quite likely from the ♥9 lead. Every other suit was a claim.

[mikeh]

lamford, on 2020-August-14, 13:51, said:

Well, my thoughts at the time were:
Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time.
Holmes: That was the curious incident.

West has led a heart from 98x(x). Despite North bidding Stayman ...

I am going to make it if any jack drops, or if anyone gets automatically squeezed. If East has something like J9xx Jxxx xxx xx I don't think I can make it though.

And I am talking out loud, and don't know what the right line is.

Well, you point out that my line fails due to west being 2=3=4=4 with the minor suit jacks. Of course, my line makes when east has your Jxxx Jxxx xxx xx, since he is squeezed in the majors when I cash 3 clubs.

As for your comment that xx 98x Jxxx Jxxx is ‘quite likely’, that depends on what that phrase is intended to suggest. If you mean, for example, that it’s more likely than, say, Jxxx 98x Jxxx xx I respectfully suggest that you’re wrong. Note that my line works on that lie of the cards. West is squeezed in the pointed suits on the 3rd club (he can delay the squeeze by pitching a heart, but then the heart A does him in)


I’m not good enough to calculate the odds and doubt that even a Michael Rosenberg could do so at the table (although I suspect he’d find the best line even if uncertain as to the math). Having said that, the more I think about this interesting hand the more I like my play, even with the ‘clue’ about the lead. If I were to draw any inference it would be that maybe he’s looking at all 3 jacks, but then at least one of them is likely (not assured) to drop when I play clubs then spades.

As always, I’m not that interested in what works on an actual hand. Using that as the criterion for assessing a line of play leads to bad technique. I know that’s not what you are suggesting, and I do find the hand very interesting, so thank you for posting it. I’d be interested if anyone here has the ability to analyze the probabilities.....and would go so far as to assume that west can be inferred to hold 2-3 hearts (although the 9 from 986x is hardly impossible, and against grand, one cannot be entirely sure where the J10 are, or just the 10....I think we can discount J9x(x))

[shyams]

I don't get it. Lamford wrote that West has 9x 98x Jxxx Jxxx. If so, how does one make the contract? The way I see it, all threat cards are misplaced and there is no squeeze. What am I missing?

[smerriman]

shyams, on 2020-August-15, 00:36, said:

I don't get it. Lamford wrote that West has 9x 98x Jxxx Jxxx. If so, how does one make the contract? The way I see it, all threat cards are misplaced and there is no squeeze. What am I missing?

You can pin the 9 of spades on the second round.

[mikeh]

smerriman, on 2020-August-15, 01:12, said:

You can pin the 9 of spades on the second round.

Yes, that 8 of spades is key.win the heart, and I’d cash the second heart anyway, then club, or diamond, to dummy and advance the spade 10. Then, when the 9 drops on the second round, come back to your 8.

Were anyone to find this in an online game, I’d check to see if kibitzers were allowed, and then would be 99.999% convinced (even if wrongly) that declarer knew the lie of the cards.

So, yes, one ‘can’ make the hand, but only at the cost of one’s reputation.

[shyams]

smerriman, on 2020-August-15, 01:12, said:

You can pin the 9 of spades on the second round.

Ah I get it. Wow!

In my blissful state, with the blessing of a divine God, I divined visualised that exact layout and led the ♠10. To my chagrin, East did not cover and West won with his bare ♠J. Keyzer Soze The Devil had replaced West's doubleton ♠9x with a doubleton ♠Jx

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2020-August-15, 01:17, said:

Yes, that 8 of spades is key.win the heart, and I’d cash the second heart anyway, then club, or diamond, to dummy and advance the spade 10. Then, when the 9 drops on the second round, come back to your 8.

Were anyone to find this in an online game, I’d check to see if kibitzers were allowed, and then would be 99.999% convinced (even if wrongly) that declarer knew the lie of the cards.

So, yes, one ‘can’ make the hand, but only at the cost of one’s reputation.

In the online game, declarer did cash a top spade and West played the nine! Declarer played for that to be from J9 doubleton or a false-card from J9x and went off anyway. I think your line is right, and you pay off to the actual layout 9x 98x Jxxx Jxxx with West. Assuming the minor-suit jacks are not dropping, I think the heart lead suggests that 2-3-4-4 is West's most likely shape, but it is too far a leap to play for this layout when you are gin if he has Jx 98x Jxxx Jxxx as well as all other shapes that get squeezed.