[LBengtsson]

I thought that opening 2♦, 2♥, 2♠ in 4th seat does not show weak but about, I guess, 11-14 points and six card suit. That is how I play it if using three weak two bids in my system. But for quite a few days I have thought - and searched on internet with no luck - what does 3♣, 3♦, 3♥, 3♠ and 4♣, 4♦ (if not use Namyats) show here?

Three passes and what sort of hand to use these bids, or is this a crazy question? There must be some definition somewhere, and I guess that 3NT would still be either a gambling all honours minor or balanced 25-27 in 4th here, or does that bid change in 4th also?

(Easy answer: 3♣, 3♦, 3♥, 3♠ show 11-14 and seven card suit, and 4♣, 4♦ show 11-14 and eight card suit, but is this best way to use these bids?)

[pescetom]

Without agreement I would assume your easy answer.
I suspect it is quite unlikely that nobody else can open when you have a 7+card suit.

[Cyberyeti]

Not sure about the 4 level bids, 3N is still in the picture with many hands with an 8 card minor particularly at pairs. You probably want something more specific for 4m.

[DavidKok]

I think 3m specifically shows a suit that is one honour away from taking 7 tricks, so that partner may safely bid 3NT on Hx and some scattered outside values (along with the range you indicated). 3M shows similar concentration of strength but now of course 4M is also an option. 4♣/4♦ is just torturing partner.

[pescetom]

 pescetom, on 2021-December-30, 05:12, said:

I suspect it is quite unlikely that nobody else can open when you have a 7+card suit.

It seems I was right.

Frequency of any (11+HCP):
    0	    5984
    1	   94016
Frequency of 7+ (11+HCP):
    0	   98843
    1	    1157
Frequency of 8+ (11+HCP):
    0	   99953
    1	      47
Generated 2803781 hands
Produced 100000 hands
Initial random seed 1640882848
Time needed    4.123 sec

I gave W and N a pass with any balanced hand of 11 or less, or unbalanced with 5 or less.
One less point for E in third seat.
It was passed around to S on 3.6% of deals.
S had 11+ points on 94% of those occasions.
But the odds he also had a 7+card suit were just 1.2% and an 8+card suit a mere 0.05%.

[pilowsky]

 pescetom, on 2021-December-30, 08:27, said:

It seems I was right.

Frequency of any (11+HCP):
    0    	5984
    1   	94016
Frequency of 7+ (11+HCP):
    0   	98843
    1    	1157
Frequency of 8+ (11+HCP):
    0   	99953
    1      	47
Generated 2803781 hands
Produced 100000 hands
Initial random seed 1640882848
Time needed    4.123 sec

I gave W and N a pass with any balanced hand of 11 or less, or unbalanced with 5 or less.
One less point for E in third seat.
It was passed around to S on 3.6% of deals.
S had 11+ points on 94% of those occasions.
But the odds he also had a 7+card suit were just 1.2% and an 8+card suit a mere 0.05%.

Does this mean that the odds that something like this will happen are 1.25 in 100?
About once in every four 24-board tournaments - so something worth being prepared for.
If it doesn't happen to you then you will be defending it with the same frequency.
Add to that the possible 12 count balanced hands that some people may choose not to open.
The hand below was dealt in a tourney from yesterday. It was passed out on 21 of 80 tables.

---

[smerriman]

 pilowsky, on 2021-December-30, 21:57, said:

Does this mean that the odds that something like this will happen are 1.25 in 100?
About once in every four 24-board tournaments - so something worth being prepared for.

No. 1.2% of 3.6%, i.e. once every 100 24-board tournaments, or so.

[pilowsky]

 smerriman, on 2021-December-30, 23:27, said:

No. 1.2% of 3.6%, i.e. once every 100 24-board tournaments, or so.

Thanks - another problem to cross off the list for 2022

[DavidKok]

Both South and West have an opening hand in your example Pilowsky, but I understand that some people may pass this.

[mycroft]

To answer the OP, what a call like that "shows" is massively dependent on one and exactly one thing - "if you bid, your hand is such that you expect to go plus." Because in fourth seat, you have a lower limit on your losses you can take - you can pass and get zero.

Bids in fourth seat (at least higher than 2♣) must mean "this is my best chance to go plus", whether it's "try to win the auction in one call", "give partner enough information to bid game when it has a good chance of making, and not when it doesn't" (and similarly, "the information given by making the 1-level call rather than the 3-level is helpful to partner in determining game or not"), and "minimal chance to go down given expected strength and shape in the other three hands."

That determines the strength of the call, not the other way around. In other words, 3♣ doesn't mean "6-ish tricks in clubs in a decent minimum opening hand" because that's what we've agreed it to mean, it means that because it's the kind of hand that still expects to go plus contracting for 9 tricks when we might have won it for 8 (but might have let the opponents in to their fit, too). The only issue here is "only a decent minimum"; that limit is because with more than a decent minimum, "plus" isn't the hurdle to beat, "game" is, and you don't want to be in 3m+1 because partner "didn't think they had enough".

4m I can't imagine a natural meaning for. Pretty much any hand that thinks both that their best result is contracting for 10 tricks in a trump suit below game *and* expects to go plus either should be passing (because passout is the best way to stop the opponents from finding their fit) or should have a good play for 3NT opposite a quacky 10.

[Cyberyeti]

 mycroft, on 2021-December-31, 10:06, said:

4m I can't imagine a natural meaning for. Pretty much any hand that thinks both that their best result is contracting for 10 tricks in a trump suit below game *and* expects to go plus either should be passing (because passout is the best way to stop the opponents from finding their fit) or should have a good play for 3NT opposite a quacky 10.

This is why it needs to be something specific, whether it involves another suit as well as the minor or is specifically a really long bad suit where 3N does not look good.

[gszes]

HAPPY HOLIDAYS


If you want to use 2h/s in 4th seat do NOT use the bid if you want to bid game opposite a drury (you should add reverse drury to your card if not using it already) response.
This does not mean 11/12/13/14 hcp hands are out but the more hcp you have the uglier they have to be. QJTxxx KJ QJ KJx is a good example of a 14 count 4th seat 2s bid. The main reason the lower limit is around 9 hcp is because there is little reason to enter the bidding when you KNOW you are outgunned ie if you have 7 hcp just how are the other 33 hcp spread out so noone has opened yet?

3c/d* I have rarely seen a natural hand that looks right for this bid. Why open 3m with a hand like xx xx AQJxxxx xx. We are almost always going negative when we could have passed the hand out for zero? If you want to play 3 c/d as natural, it should probably look something like a decent 6/7 card suit with a generally ugly collection of hcp outside the main suit QJx x KQJTxxx QJx. We might go negative but after 3 passes there should be some play and p will rarely have enough stuff for us to make 3n.

3 h/s? I do not worry much about HCP since the bids make life real uncomfortable for the opps anyway. I worry more about scoring something positive and allowing p to make rational decisions on how to proceed. I see little purpose to opening something like 3h with say xx AQJT9xx xx xx. What is the point? We are almost always going negative if we win the auction and we could have been at zero if we just passed the hand out. I do not worry much about HCP with 4th seat 3 h/s. I primarily want to have a decent 7 card suit and a side holding that allows p to bid game with a couple of aces. AQJTxxx x QJTx x is a fine 3s bid in 4th seat.

4c/4d prefer namyats

*i prefer 4th seat 3 c/d to be a form of namyats for the minors and never using gambling 3n.

3c = a solid 7/8 card minor with one outside stop
3d asks for the stopper
3h = heart stop
3s = spade stop
3n = other minor stopped
3h 5 card heart suit and some hope for game (not 3n) asking p to raise or retreat to 4m
3s same as 3h but with a spade suit
3n to play probably right sided

3d = a solid 7/8 card minor with no outside stop
3h same as after 3c
3s same as after 3c
3n to play probably right sided