[shyams]

pescetom, on 2025-July-03, 15:24, said:

Here is the full hand.

---

The probability that Opener has a 4-card spade to go with the 5-card heart is 10%, the probability of Opener holding 5-6 or 5-7 in majors is 0.3%. (Source: Pavlicek Calculators http://rpbridge.net/cgi-bin/xch1.pl). I think North's best course of action is to make the max info bid & let Opener decide.

I wrote that 3♦ is best, I still believe it. If one is so worried about missing a spade game or partscore, a weak 2♠ --- as per OP's system --- is a (distant) second choice.

I hate passing this hand. However, the idea of responding with an unlimited & forcing 1♠ feels bad at a gut-level.

[Cyberyeti]

When W rescues me with a double, I do what I would also do with a 4162 and bid 3♦.

[pescetom]

shyams, on 2025-July-03, 23:08, said:

I wrote that 3♦ is best, I still believe it. If one is so worried about missing a spade game or partscore, a weak 2♠ --- as per OP's system --- is a (distant) second choice.

I hate passing this hand. However, the idea of responding with an unlimited & forcing 1♠ feels bad at a gut-level.

3♦ would be fine (at least NV) if partner will expect something as weak as this. We play it as mildly invitational, give partner Kx in spades and he might well bid 3NT.

[pescetom]

mw64ahw, on 2025-July-03, 21:46, said:

There was a discussion about the merits of 4th suit forcing in this bidding sequence on the other site some time ago.
Frankly I find it unnecessary. Playing 2/1 GF you invite via 2N and bid 3N/4N with GF/SI values.

I'm not a fan of 4SF, but this is one of the few situations where I do play it.
I think mikeh had the best 'gadget' here (2♦ as a Puppet) and that is going on my card with whoever agrees.

[WasWinM]

jillybean, on 2025-July-03, 18:11, said:

I'm not bidding ♠ to find a fit

Then what’s the point?

[WasWinM]

johnu, on 2025-July-03, 18:59, said:

I play that 2♦ shows 5 spades and 6 diamonds and 1-1 in the other 2 suits and a hand that might have passed over 1♥. It doesn't come up often but when it does you can get a top score in a bidding contest.

LoL

[jillybean]

smerriman, on 2025-July-03, 21:11, said:

If it shows both balanced and unbalanced hands in this range, it might be time to edit your signature

Interesting comment. The definition of a balanced hand is becoming more and more blurred, but I think we need to start a new thread.

[mw64ahw]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-04, 07:00, said:

LoL

Yep definitely masterminding there

[jillybean]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-04, 06:59, said:

Then what’s the point?

With both ops passing, I think this hand is worth 1 bid. My suggestion of spade values may allow partner to bid 1nt
We may find a fit, I'll be happy to play in a comfy 5-4 fit or a 5-3 fit is he raises with 3

Removed.

[WasWinM]

jillybean, on 2025-July-04, 14:35, said:

With both ops passing, I think this hand is worth 1 bid. My suggestion of spade values may allow partner to bid 1nt
We may find a fit, I'll be happy to play in a comfy 5-4 fit or a 5-3 fit is he raises with 3

Removed.

Hi. I think you're overlooking something important. Yes, both opponents passed but where are the missing high cards? Your LHO didn't have enought to open, partner is limited to less than a 2C opener, you have zilch, so that leaves the player sitting over you partner with most likely an opening hand yet he failed to act - and why? A good guess is that he has hearts too. If so, you're most likely dealing with a misfit and the sooner you bail the better your side will be is my thinking.

I'm pretty certain I'll see arguments why I'm wrong, LoL.

[Cyberyeti]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-04, 20:30, said:

Hi. I think you're overlooking something important. Yes, both opponents passed but where are the missing high cards? Your LHO didn't have enought to open, partner is limited to less than a 2C opener, you have zilch, so that leaves the player sitting over you partner with most likely an opening hand yet he failed to act - and why? A good guess is that he has hearts too. If so, you're most likely dealing with a misfit and the sooner you bail the better your side will be is my thinking.

I'm pretty certain I'll see arguments why I'm wrong, LoL.

One of two things is going on, either partner has a very good hand and RHO who doesn't have spades doesn't feel like overcalling at the 2 level, or RHO has hearts. What you do know is that it's pretty unlikely partner has a minimum opener.

It's also perfectly possible both opps have balanced ish 9 counts.

[WasWinM]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-July-05, 02:50, said:

One of two things is going on, either partner has a very good hand and RHO who doesn't have spades doesn't feel like overcalling at the 2 level, or RHO has hearts. What you do know is that it's pretty unlikely partner has a minimum opener.

It's also perfectly possible both opps have balanced ish 9 counts.

If you think averages instead of potentials you get a different answer.Give opening seat his 9-count pass and you have 27 unaccounted high cards. Averages would expect a division of 14/13. Known hearts are 5-1 (could be more I know) and that leaves 7 unaccounted for, and expectations would be for 4-3 division.
So just from normal expectations of what is known when it is your bid is expectations suggest RHO passed with a 13-14 point hand situated over your side’s strength and likely holds 3 or 4 hearts.
Do you really want to get involved?
I always keep Bob Hamman’s admonition in mind about bidding a slam: if you need me to hold one specific card, I don’t have it.

[Cyberyeti]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-05, 07:26, said:

If you think averages instead of potentials you get a different answer.Give opening seat his 9-count pass and you have 27 unaccounted high cards. Averages would expect a division of 14/13. Known hearts are 5-1 (could be more I know) and that leaves 7 unaccounted for, and expectations would be for 4-3 division.
So just from normal expectations of what is known when it is your bid is expectations suggest RHO passed with a 13-14 point hand situated over your side’s strength and likely holds 3 or 4 hearts.
Do you really want to get involved?
I always keep Bob Hamman’s admonition in mind about bidding a slam: if you need me to hold one specific card, I don’t have it.

Why would I give opening seat a 9 count ? Points could be 4-4-22-10 as far as I know

It's pretty much guesswork. It's not complete fantasy to give partner A, Axxxx, AQJ, Axxx for his opener or his actual hand, but I would suggest his actual hand is probably par ish for strength, maybe under par.

[jillybean]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-05, 07:26, said:

If you think averages instead of potentials you get a different answer.Give opening seat his 9-count pass and you have 27 unaccounted high cards. Averages would expect a division of 14/13. Known hearts are 5-1 (could be more I know) and that leaves 7 unaccounted for, and expectations would be for 4-3 division.
So just from normal expectations of what is known when it is your bid is expectations suggest RHO passed with a 13-14 point hand situated over your side’s strength and likely holds 3 or 4 hearts.
Do you really want to get involved?
I always keep Bob Hamman’s admonition in mind about bidding a slam: if you need me to hold one specific card, I don’t have it.

I don't understand this, it sounds like playing scared bridge. RHO is an extremely timid bidder if they've passed with 13 hcp.

[Cyberyeti]

jillybean, on 2025-July-05, 11:28, said:

I don't understand this, it sounds like playing scared bridge. RHO is an extremely timid bidder if they've passed with 13 hcp.

There are many flat 13s or 13s with hearts that pass over 1♥.

There aren't many that LHO passes.

[WasWinM]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-July-05, 09:24, said:

Why would I give opening seat a 9 count ? Points could be 4-4-22-10 as far as I know

It's pretty much guesswork. It's not complete fantasy to give partner A, Axxxx, AQJ, Axxx for his opener or his actual hand, but I would suggest his actual hand is probably par ish for strength, maybe under par.

With 36 missing HCP expectations say 12-12-12. We know ths’s incorrect from the pass. A king less makes a clear pass. Remember the best we can do is expectations at this point. No matter what pass value you assign the end result is an expectation of an opening hand over an opening hand.
Guaranteed? No. But better than guesswork. Can a pass miss game. Sure. I might also stave off disaster.

[WasWinM]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-July-05, 09:24, said:

Why would I give opening seat a 9 count ? Points could be 4-4-22-10 as far as I know

It's pretty much guesswork. It's not complete fantasy to give partner A, Axxxx, AQJ, Axxx for his opener or his actual hand, but I would suggest his actual hand is probably par ish for strength, maybe under par.

With 36 missing HCP expectations say 12-12-12. We know ths’s incorrect from the pass. A king less makes a clear pass. Remember the best we can do is expectations at this point. No matter what pass value you assign the end result is an expectation of an opening hand over an opening hand.
Guaranteed? No. But better than guesswork. Can a pass miss game. Sure. It might also stave off disaster.

[Cyberyeti]

WasWinM, on 2025-July-05, 17:28, said:

With 36 missing HCP expectations say 12-12-12. We know ths’s incorrect from the pass. A king less makes a clear pass. Remember the best we can do is expectations at this point. No matter what pass value you assign the end result is an expectation of an opening hand over an opening hand.
Guaranteed? No. But better than guesswork. Can a pass miss game. Sure. It might also stave off disaster.

Pass can actually miss a grand although not often (void, AKxxx, AQJx, Axxx, no guarantee you will be rescued).

I disagree with your maths.

I think partner figures to be 16-18 most of the time, although whether that is enough to avert disaster depends on his shape.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

as I said methods matter.

from a match we played today:

KJxxx
x
JTx
Txxx

1H - 1P
1NT (1) - 2P (2)
3S (3) - all pass


(1) 15-19
(2) 5 spades, 5-7
(3) 18-19, 3 spades

Partner was not happy with his decision to bid only 3S, 4S makes.
... given that I was only in 3S I just made 9 tricks as safely as
possible.

Partners hand

ATx
QTxxx
KQx
AK

Partner though, that the heart shortage was quite likely, I could have
passed 1H (I am not so sure about this, but I guess transmitting the heart
shortage seems reasonable, helping opener to evaluate his hand.)

Making a light response needs conventional protection, I dont mind pass with
the 6-5 hand, but 1S is ok.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[WasWinM]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-July-06, 03:32, said:

Pass can actually miss a grand although not often (void, AKxxx, AQJx, Axxx, no guarantee you will be rescued).

I disagree with your maths.

I think partner figures to be 16-18 most of the time, although whether that is enough to avert disaster depends on his shape.

Show your work. Just how do you determine that with 36 HCP missing and 2 passing opponents your partner’s expected holding is 16-18 and RHO doesn’t have a similar hand?

I’m just curious. If you assign first seat pass less than 11 points, at the moment he passes there is a 50% chance the other two hands have equal strength. How much does the 1h opening change that or does it?