[Cyberyeti]

So after an unopposed auction I won't go into, you finish in 5♣

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Opps lead 2 rounds of diamonds (K then small to the A), you ruff, play heart ace and ruff one (small cards from the opps) and now lead a club off the table, small on your right, K or J and why ?

[thepossum]

I think I may have led a Spade from the table just in case

But if I am playng clubs I think I should play the King just in case - I honestly don't know if it makes a huge difference

But I am feeling anxious about my spade tricks - what is wrong with AK then small spade but don't ruff with your small trump
Or AK spades followed by the club finesse. Who knows

Will wait for MikeH who is more advanced than the Mistakes I make at Bridge

[mikeh]

Ok, only the one answer. I am sure cyber knows the answer so I could let him show it, but….

Consider possible layouts, bearing in mind that this is the only time we get to lead from dummy.

If the suit is 2=2…we know RHO doesn’t hold AQ tight since he played low. And it doesn’t matter if LHO has AQ tight….we’re down.

So if the suit is 2=2 and we can make it….is it Qx or Ax on our right? There’s no way to know….if this is all yiu think about, flip a coin.

But what about 3=1 breaks? If RHO has 3….hmmmm…..if it’s the Queen, the Jack forces the Ace but we can’t finesse again, so down we go. And the king is no better. If RHO has Qxx we can’t make. But what about Axx? Play the king and you drop the Queen offside.

There are 2 Qx onside possibilities and 2 Ax onside so those offset, the only 3=1 you can pick up is Axx onside. Thus it is a mistake not to play the king.

Of course, quite often the King loses to the Ace. So what? Bridge is a game of percentages. Choose the highest percentage play every time and you’ll lose on some…maybe quite often when you’re in a poor contract….but you’ll be doing better in the long run than players who choose inferior lines…which will sometimes, on any given hand, work better than the ‘correct’ line.

So play to the king. It loses to Ax? Big deal….you played it correctly…..you gave it the best chance.

[thepossum]

I think I am still playing my AK spades first

happy my "gut" feel for the King first was marginally better. I figured you only had one chance but had not enumerated everything

[Cyberyeti]

mikeh, on 2025-August-04, 23:02, said:

Ok, only the one answer. I am sure cyber knows the answer so I could let him show it, but….

Consider possible layouts, bearing in mind that this is the only time we get to lead from dummy.

If the suit is 2=2…we know RHO doesn’t hold AQ tight since he played low. And it doesn’t matter if LHO has AQ tight….we’re down.

So if the suit is 2=2 and we can make it….is it Qx or Ax on our right? There’s no way to know….if this is all yiu think about, flip a coin.

But what about 3=1 breaks? If RHO has 3….hmmmm…..if it’s the Queen, the Jack forces the Ace but we can’t finesse again, so down we go. And the king is no better. If RHO has Qxx we can’t make. But what about Axx? Play the king and you drop the Queen offside.

There are 2 Qx onside possibilities and 2 Ax onside so those offset, the only 3=1 you can pick up is Axx onside. Thus it is a mistake not to play the king.

Of course, quite often the King loses to the Ace. So what? Bridge is a game of percentages. Choose the highest percentage play every time and you’ll lose on some…maybe quite often when you’re in a poor contract….but you’ll be doing better in the long run than players who choose inferior lines…which will sometimes, on any given hand, work better than the ‘correct’ line.

So play to the king. It loses to Ax? Big deal….you played it correctly…..you gave it the best chance.

Saved my typing. Also when the K wins you should ruff a heart on the way back, I didn't ask this or I'm sure Mike would have said. If hearts are 3-3, this will stand up, so there's no issue. If they are 4-2, you had a heart loser which is going away and either the hand with 2 may not be able to ruff (if the Q dropped) or has to ruff with the ace if 2-2.

Possum said

Quote

I think I am still playing my AK spades first

This is wrong, you are discarding winning hearts, you have 6, AK, a ruff, 2 discards and one remaining, so it gains nothing, and if you have to ruff one in dummy after the ♣K wins it makes your return to hand less safe.

[thepossum]

Cyberyeti, on 2025-August-05, 03:08, said:

Possum said ...

This is wrong...

I am going to generate a few hands and think it through
I honesttly did not see great chances of making so had not worked out all the undertrick combinations

[thepossum]

One example hand. It helped me. Maybe it helps someone else. This makes 11

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Average number of tricks using my parametrs is only 10.25

TBH, looking at that hand opps would have bid - we needed the auction too

[Cyberyeti]

thepossum, on 2025-August-05, 18:56, said:

TBH, looking at that hand opps would have bid - we needed the auction too

The reason I didn't give it was that it would have started with a multi from W, so the opps may not have bid.

The actual hand - N ♣Ax hearts 3-3