Lay on, MacDuff

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Lay on, MacDuff

#1 Echognome

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Posted 2008-June-24, 18:01

Scoring: IMP

1♥ - 2♣
2♠ - 3♠
4♦ - 4♥
4♠ - All Pass

Note that this is the opponents' bidding. You and partner are silent throughout.

Your lead?

"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright

#2 matmat

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Posted 2008-June-24, 19:48

diamond

#3 kenrexford

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Posted 2008-June-24, 21:01

Before I lead, I do have a few questions.

1. Is this a 2/1 GF sequence?
2. What would 3NT by Opener after 3♠ have shown?
3. What did 4♦ show?
4. What did 4♥ show?
5. What was the minimum length for the 2♣ call?
6. Did 2♠ promise extras?
7. Do the opponents play Flannery?

After these questions are answered, I'll lead. I'll guess that a diamond may well be my lead, though. A second real option is a small club.

"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter.

#4 Echognome

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Posted 2008-June-24, 21:11

kenrexford, on Jun 24 2008, 07:01 PM, said:

1. 2/1 GF
2+. 2/1 GF. Take your own inference.

Your opponents are experts. (Both have those little five-pointed things on their profiles.)

"Half the people you know are below average." - Steven Wright

#5 kenrexford

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Posted 2008-June-24, 21:44

[quote name='Echognome' date='Jun 24 2008, 10:11 PM'] [quote name='kenrexford' date='Jun 24 2008, 07:01 PM'] Before I lead, I do have a few questions.

...

1. 2/1 GF
2+. 2/1 GF. Take your own inference.

Your opponents are experts. (Both have those little five-pointed things on their profiles.) [/quote]
OK, then they must play exactly how I play.

I was tempted to lead a small club or the club 10 to create a guess for Declarer, but that's too obvious, IMO. If I lead a small club, I might as well show Declarer the Ace. Although, the 10 has some appeal. I might catch dummy with Q9xx and partner with KJ8x. 10-Q-K, club to Ace, club through 9x toward K8. Sure, Declarer ruffs the third club, but no trick is established in clubs. The single tap might be critical.

But, the diamond lead still seems to stand out.

Bah! Club 10 for me. Too sexy. I'm not really at the table, you see.

#6 inquiry

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Posted 2008-June-25, 08:38

while underleading the club ace has some appeal at matchpoints, at imps i am going with the forcing game and lead a diamond. This might work well since i have control of clubs and maybe even a heart trick.... and my fourth trump will probably cause some problems for them if they are in a strong 4-3 fit, as I hope (expect?), and might even be problematic if they are in a 4-4 fit.

--Ben--

#7 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 13:10

Low club seems really automatic.

#8 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 13:14

kenrexford, on Jun 24 2008, 10:44 PM, said:

I was tempted to lead a small club or the club 10 to create a guess for Declarer, but that's too obvious, IMO. If I lead a small club, I might as well show Declarer the Ace.

Why do you think this? I would have thought a low club is equally automatic from the Q, or the K, or the J, or nothing. The auction just seems to indicate a club lead. RHO couldn't cuebid the suit so it doesn't look like he's going to have an honor.

In fact it wouldnt surprise me if the best way to beat this hand is club to partners queen or king, and then partner underleading the DA through RHO's K when RHO is 4522 with the DK.

#9 kenrexford

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Posted 2008-June-25, 13:35

Jlall, on Jun 25 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Jun 24 2008, 10:44 PM, said:

I was tempted to lead a small club or the club 10 to create a guess for Declarer, but that's too obvious, IMO. If I lead a small club, I might as well show Declarer the Ace.

I think that the 10 has the most to offer for the reason stated. If I will give Declarer a guess, I might as well lead the card that could help partner on occasion. The deuce does not help that cause.

#10 cherdano

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Posted 2008-June-25, 15:29

Why would the ten help partner and the 2 would not? Partner saw the bidding, too.

The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke

#11 kenrexford

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Posted 2008-June-25, 15:55

cherdano, on Jun 25 2008, 04:29 PM, said:

Why would the ten help partner and the 2 would not? Partner saw the bidding, too.

Compare

10-Q-K-x
x-x-10-x
2-something-cover-ruff

With

2-x-J-x
x-x-A-x
10-Q-K-ruff

In the former, Declarer is tapped once and has no established club for later.
In the latter, Declarer is tapped once but has an established club for later, either as a trick or as a stop or as a stepping-stone entry or whatever.

Compare further (how it helps partner):

10-x-x-x
A-x-x-x
2-something-cover-trump

Same thing.

The 10 protects partner from a duck by Declarer.

The bidding does not suggest that partner stick in the 8 when declarer ducks.

#12 Rebound

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Posted 2008-June-25, 16:05

Perhaps you aren't soliciting opinions from the peanut gallery, but just for the record, to me a trump lead seems best. It's certainly what I'd lead at the table. Anyway, it's instructional to see others' reasoning for other leads.

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy - but it might improve my bridge.

#13 pclayton

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Posted 2008-June-25, 17:56

Matt gave me the hand and I knew what he led before I had a chance to look at it.

I thought a diamond stood out. A club might work, and you can construct some hands where it works out great. But you can also construct layouts where a diamond or even a trump could be right.

I'd have to be pretty desperate to underlead my A here. Yes I can see they are making slam overtures, but I need a reason to lead a club, not just that they have extra values.

"Phil" on BBO

#14 jdonn

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:15

Jlall, on Jun 25 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Jun 24 2008, 10:44 PM, said:

I was tempted to lead a small club or the club 10 to create a guess for Declarer, but that's too obvious, IMO. If I lead a small club, I might as well show Declarer the Ace.

Why do you think this? I would have thought a low club is equally automatic from the Q, or the K, or the J, or nothing.

That's probably true for you but I agree with Ken here, if declarer is smart. A number of people will try underleading their ace in this spot but a lot fewer people seem to lead from Qxx(x). I would lead a diamond in any case.

Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.

#15 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:16

pclayton, on Jun 25 2008, 06:56 PM, said:

but I need a reason to lead a club, not just that they have extra values.

How about because RHO cuebid diamonds and bypassed the opportunity to cuebid clubs. Clubs is also their only uncuebid suit, and may be the reason they chose not to go beyond 4.

#16 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:21

jdonn, on Jun 25 2008, 10:15 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jun 25 2008, 02:14 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Jun 24 2008, 10:44 PM, said:

I was tempted to lead a small club or the club 10 to create a guess for Declarer, but that's too obvious, IMO. If I lead a small club, I might as well show Declarer the Ace.

Why do you think this? I would have thought a low club is equally automatic from the Q, or the K, or the J, or nothing.

You are biased because you know a lot more pseudo-expert types than most. Bad and/or unimaginative players would be more likely to underlead the CQ than the CA, most good players would be more likely to lead from the queen than the ace, some good players would be equally likely to do either. It's only the type of player who is imaginative and prone to trying heroics who is also not a very good player that would be more likely to underlead their ace.

Sure their are players like this, but they're usually the hometown heroes who win at all the sectionals and lose against good competition, or the type that is more likely to post on bridge forums (not meant about anyone in particular, it's just that forums attract people who like to read about bridge and think about it a lot but may not be particularly great at execution and may be more likely to just try to make a hero play/lead for the fun of it).

I would definitely say that your blanket statement comes from a biased sample though since you are a young expert who posts on a forum and doesn't play that much overall.

#17 jdonn

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:29

I still think I'm right, bad players won't lead a club from either honor pretty much ever, and there are definitely good players who lead from the queen more often but they are a much smaller group. I don't think I'm biased on this either, in fact I believe that much more than most people the players I know vary widely in skill levels.

Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.

#18 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:43

jdonn, on Jun 25 2008, 10:29 PM, said:

Josh?? You are definitely wrong, sorry!

You go wrong in:

1) Bad players won't lead a club from either holding. What? The opps bid every suit, why are they not leading a club from the queen ever? Sometimes that is their longest suit, so they lead from it. Sometimes they have bad leads in other suits, so they choose a club (diamond from the king is bad, major into RHO is bad..) But they will never underlead an ace, ever.

2) A vast majority of thinking players will think "gee the opps didn't cuebid clubs, and then they stopped short of slam. I know they have hearts and diamonds controlled from the cuebids, so I should really lead a club!" These players will lead from the club queen all day, but they will feel like they cannot underlead an ace and will usually bang down the club ace.

3) Most real experts will be equally likely to lead from the queen as the ace, since to me this auction is screaming "club lead."

You are totally discounting those players, but those are 99 % of the players. Yes there are players, often the young not-so-good players, or the wannabe experts who read a lot of books who think "LHO bid this suit, RHO didn't cuebid this suit, I HAVE to underlead my CA" but they do not think that way about the club queen. If you are playing against one of those people I'm sure you will know who they are and pop king. That you think that population represents any significant amount of people is really absurd to me.

#19 kenrexford

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Posted 2008-June-25, 21:57

Not sure that it matters, but what are your thoughts as to which club to lead, Justin? I elected the 10 and think that's right more and more. Do you think the deuce is right?

#20 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2008-June-25, 22:01

kenrexford, on Jun 25 2008, 10:57 PM, said:

Not sure that it matters, but what are your thoughts as to which club to lead, Justin? I elected the 10 and think that's right more and more. Do you think the deuce is right?

I would have led the 2 since I think partner is more likely to work that out than the T, and I would be worried if I led the ten partner would play me for AT doubleton or something. Usually I prefer to just lead my systemic count card when underleading an ace. I see why you want to lead the ten, but I don't think that situation happens very often compared to possibly confusing partner because he does not think T is possible from AT2. I know you have plenty of faith in your partners to figure out what you're doing, so go for it

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BBO Discussion Forums: Lay on, MacDuff - BBO Discussion Forums

Lay on, MacDuff

#1 Echognome

#2 matmat

#3 kenrexford

#4 Echognome

#5 kenrexford

#6 inquiry

#7 Guest_Jlall_*

#8 Guest_Jlall_*

#9 kenrexford

#10 cherdano

#11 kenrexford

#12 Rebound

#13 pclayton

#14 jdonn

#15 Guest_Jlall_*

#16 Guest_Jlall_*

#17 jdonn

#18 Guest_Jlall_*

#19 kenrexford

#20 Guest_Jlall_*

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