[jillybean]

Dealer: North Vul: None Scoring: IMP

♠ KQJ5 ♥ AKT ♦ J5 ♣ AQ93

West North East South

 -     3♣    3♠    ?

[the hog]

X for penalties. It will become harder when the bid 4D.

[Phil]

The_Hog, on Mar 26 2009, 12:29 AM, said:

X for penalties. It will become harder when the bid 4D.

Not really, you have enough defense against 4♦ too.

[Hanoi5]

I might be influenced by the moon or a bad night sleep. How 'serious' are my partner's pre-empts? If he's on the light side I might agree to double, but if partner should have at least 6HCP then I'm leaning towards 3NT. In fact, it might be easier to make 3NT than to defeat 3♠x, sometimes...

My diamond stopper could be:

* Txxx, Qxx, Kx(x...), A(x...) in partner's hand.
* Blocked diamonds
* Diamonds are not led or switched to.

So count me in for 3NT.

[whereagles]

Dbl. If opps bid 4♦, dbl that too (and lead a trump, if possible).

However, if you can "rely" on opponents to lead and continue spades against 3NT, bid that.

[helene_t]

3NT is likely to make but I go for the sure plus. X.

[jdonn]

I double because I don't want to bid 3NT then get killed in the diamond suit.

[TylerE]

3N and make 'em find the lead.

[mtvesuvius]

Double. I see 800 no matter where they run to.

[jdonn]

TylerE, on Mar 26 2009, 10:51 AM, said:

3N and make 'em find the lead.

If they don't find the lead they will win the ace and find the switch.

[mikeh]

TylerE, on Mar 26 2009, 10:51 AM, said:

3N and make 'em find the lead.

I know josh got there first, but in 3N, it's not the lead that will kill you... it's the switch.

And considering what we hold, it ain't hard to picture rho with good diamonds... what else can he hold to justify a 3 level overcall?

5♣ is too far away.... requires us not losing the 1st 3 tricks, and so I take the money.

By the way, it is unlikely that LHO can or will run.... even if he has a redouble available as SOS, why should he employ it on a near yarborough with, say 1 or 2 spades? My experience suggests that few opps run in these auctions... if they do, we rethink... if LHO runs, he has a stiff or void in spades and I don't like our chances in either red suit... but I will double 4♥ and lead trump if possible.

[mikeh]

mtvesuvius, on Mar 26 2009, 11:48 AM, said:

Double. I see 800 no matter where they run to.

double, redouble, and they end up in 4♦. Where is your 800 coming from? I am not saying that they are favourites to make whenever they run to diamonds, but to envision 800 requires, in my view, some extraordinarily rose-tinted glassed

---

[mtvesuvius]

mikeh, on Mar 26 2009, 12:24 PM, said:

mtvesuvius, on Mar 26 2009, 11:48 AM, said:

Double. I see 800 no matter where they run to.

double, redouble, and they end up in 4♦. Where is your 800 coming from? I am not saying that they are favourites to make whenever they run to diamonds, but to envision 800 requires, in my view, some extraordinarily rose-tinted glassed

---

I never said 800 for us...

I still think X is the right move here.

[jillybean]

Im always wanting to play the hand so I bid 3nt and West didnt double to allow me to escape to 5♣
-150

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     3♣    3♠    3NT
 Pass  Pass  Pass  

Wow 3♠

[oldman5757]

Double, then double runout to ♦'s. We can probably get it 500, or maybe 800, and if not, 300 isn't a disaster. 3NT would be a much closer call if we were V.

[mtvesuvius]

+100 or 300 is still better than -150

[mikeh]

oldman5757, on Mar 26 2009, 01:10 PM, said:

Double, then double runout to ♦'s.  We can probably get it 500, or maybe 800, and if not, 300 isn't a disaster.  3NT would be a much closer call if we were V. 

I find this post and mtvesuvius' to be almost incomprehensible.

If I held the South hand, my thoughts would run along these lines:

1. 5♣ requires that we avoid 3 immediate losers, and my hand strongly argues that this is not going to happen

2. 3N requires that partner have a diamond stopper, and this is extremely unlikely, altho possible

3. Doubling is going to net us a plus score of at least 100 and 300 is the more probable outcome. On a good day, we could get rich, especially if declarer is a weak dummy player.

4. If LHO runs, he will do so based either on a very long suit or or a red two suiter, and will do so only if very short in spades

5. RHO rates to hold good diamonds.. they may not be 4 times, but they rate to be fairly good.

6. If LHO redoubles, and RHO chooses diamonds, where do my defensive tricks come from? I cannot be sure of even one club trick, but let's assume they break 1-1 (partner surely has 7 when I hold the AQxx and partner is in 1st seat). I am not scoring any spade tricks if LHO ran. I am not scoring any trump tricks. So I am doubling on the hope that I can score a club, ny top hearts and..... oh.... I am running out of tricks.. maybe I can score 3 heart tricks AND a club trick? Hmmm...not, wait a second, I am doubling expecting that 'even 300 isn't a DISASTER?" Wtf am I scoring our 5th trick? let alone our 6th?

7. If LHO, rather than redoubling, runs to 4♦, on what is probably a suit that looks like partner's club suit, or worse, what does his hand look like? He will have 7 or more diamonds, 0-1 spade and be VERY pleased with dummy.

We need to LISTEN to the auction, rather than merrily count our points. I can just see it: we double and hold them to 4, and whine that 'I had 20 hcp.. how can they ever make 10 tricks?' Heck, on a bad day, they make 6! Imagine rho with 6=1=4=2 and LHO with 1=6=6=0 and partner with 2=3=1=7.

Have we never seen a 15 point slam bid and made? So a 16 point partscore should not be a surprise when the bidding TELLS us how the cards may lie.

This doesn't mean that I think that doubling 4♦ is an incredibly bad bid... I can understand, altho disagree with, those who argue that that contract rates to go down... but what puzzles me is how any rational bridge player can be so optimistic, and so deaf to the auction, as to imagine 500 or 800 or that '300 isn't a disaster'