[louisg]

Scoring: MP

Club game. Local pro on your left, weak player on your right.

(1D) 2S (P) 3S
(4D) 4S (Dbl) AP

You may not agree with the auction (neither do I), but the final contract is fine and the play's the thing. The opening lead is a small ♦, but not readable as to whether or not it is a singleton. Plan the play.

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[kennye]

Play LHO for all thre spades and RHO for the club ace. Three rounds trunp, pitch heart on DI king and play club toward king. 7 spades,two diamonds, one club.

[maggieb]

I would win play the ♠A (RHO showing out, else there is no problem). Now there are two relevant positions, assuming LHO has exactly one useful card.

1) RHO has 8 diamonds and the ♣A

Play as any beginner would by drawing trump and playing a club towards your hand (nice analysis, Kenny).

2) RHO has 7 diamonds and not the ♣A.

Now we can make by finessing the ♠J, leaving the K in dummy, and playing a heart towards our hand. RHO must play an honor, and now he needs to be exactly 0472 to beat you (heart ruff), which he may not find anyway.

So it just remains to estimate which holding is more likely to exist, since any other holding is irrelevant.

I am not sure which line is more likely to work, but I would be inclined to play him for having 7 diamonds and not the ♣A, so I would follow the second plan and play a heart towards my hand after finessing the ♠J.

[louisg]

maggieb, on Aug 15 2009, 09:44 PM, said:

I would win play the ♠A (RHO showing out, else there is no problem). Now there are two relevant positions, assuming LHO has exactly one useful card.

1) RHO has 8 diamonds and the ♣A

Play as any beginner would by drawing trump and playing a club towards your hand (nice analysis, Kenny).

2) RHO has 7 diamonds and not the ♣A.

Now we can make by finessing the ♠J, leaving the K in dummy, and playing a heart towards our hand. RHO must play an honor, and now he needs to be exactly 0472 to beat you (heart ruff), which he may not find anyway.

So it just remains to estimate which holding is more likely to exist, since any other holding is irrelevant.

I am not sure which line is more likely to work, but I would be inclined to play him for having 7 diamonds and not the ♣A, so I would follow the second plan and play a heart towards my hand after finessing the ♠J.

Interesting analysis. I take it that you are treating the ♣Q as a "useful card" (i.e., your weak RHO would never have bid 4♦ with something like -- AKx QJTxxxx xxx).

How about leading the ♦K at trick 2 and discarding a heart? If this lives you can play a third diamond and ditch your last heart, ruff the likely heart return, play a spade to the Jack and a club down. If the ♣K loses to the Ace and a trump comes back, exit another club. RHO will probably have to win this and can do nothing to hurt you. If the ♦K is ruffed at trick 2, you can still play for the ♣A onside.

This line gives you chances in both case #1 and case #2, but relies heavily on the ♠Q being on your left. Would you consider this a reasonable line?

[maggieb]

Yes, I like that line better than the one I proposed, Louis. I take it that it didn't work at the table?

[louisg]

I'll let you know what happened at the table later. Still hoping to get others' opinions....

[gnasher]

louisg, on Aug 17 2009, 05:27 PM, said:

This line gives you chances in both case #1 and case #2, but relies heavily on the ♠Q being on your left.

Not that heavily. If the spade finesse loses, you can still hope for ♣A to be onside.

[gnasher]

It would be nice to know the rank of the diamond they've led. Suppose that I have AK2 opposite 3. The 5 is twice as likely to be a singleton as the 6, and three times as likely as the 7.

[louisg]

gnasher, on Aug 17 2009, 12:28 PM, said:

louisg, on Aug 17 2009, 05:27 PM, said:

This line gives you chances in both case #1 and case #2, but relies heavily on the ♠Q being on your left.

Not that heavily. If the spade finesse loses, you can still hope for ♣A to be onside.

Good point. Does that mean that you favor this line?

[louisg]

gnasher, on Aug 17 2009, 12:32 PM, said:

It would be nice to know the rank of the diamond they've led.  Suppose that I have AK2 opposite 3.  The 5 is twice as likely to be a singleton as the 6, and three times as likely as the 7.

Sorry, can't help you with that. I know you'd be paying enough attention at the table to have this info, so the problem is flawed as stated, but that's the way it is

[louisg]

The full hand was as follows:

Scoring: MP

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My partner, as declarer, called for the ♦K at trick 2 and was quickly down one (ruff, heart over, club and a club ruff). This play seemed strange to me at the time, and when I asked why he had done it (after the session, of course ) he explained his reasoning essentially as I described it above. Given that the straightforward line of play makes an overtrick (!) it was hard for me to be sympathetic, but I also recognized that it was hard for me to be objective. I posted here hoping to get a more balanced view of his line.

Any additional thoughts would be appreciated.