Posted 2011-July-22, 11:25
We can play partner for about 6 or 7 hcp .... this is probably not a cold contract....LHO was willing to play 3N.
I don't like diamonds, since that lead needs a lot to go right for it to be a winner, and not much to go wrong for it to be a loser.
A spade certainly seems safe enough, but has no upside. Otoh, the opps seem to have stretched so safety may be important. However, since I think clubs are about as safe as spades, in terms of the suits, and about as dangerous, in terms of losing a tempo, while having a very slight upside, I would always lead a club rather than a spade. Picture dummy with 5323/5233 and declarer with 3235/3325 or both with 4 clubs.
Hearts are for the hyper-aggressive. We could be cashing two quicks, or establishing the K. I'd probably go for the hearts if I didn't have the 10....picture a layout such as dummy with Qx and declarer with A10x....he could go wrong. But with Qx opposite Axx, he can't go wrong. That's enough to persuade me to save my aggressive lead for another day.
Thus I choose a club, but with no strong feelings.
Btw, while I am not expecting a ruff, I also don't feel that partner's failure to double means much....he may have no assurance that he can beat 6N, especially if he gives declarer a clue as to the layout.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari