[Phil]

What is the most common card played to the 13th trick?

I have a theory.

[wyman]

Spoiler

♦7

[DrMunk]

Does it involve beer?

[masse24]

♦7 is a cute theory but I would posit that it is a ♠ (no guess as to which one)

[dwar0123]

The first card played to the 13th trick or the last card played to the 13th trick or the card that wins the 13th trick?

[BunnyGo]

dwar0123, on 2012-August-17, 15:00, said:

The first card played to the 13th trick or the last card played to the 13th trick or the card that wins the 13th trick?

I think he meant any of the 4 cards in the 13th trick.

[kuhchung]

In context (e.g. small trump), or the actual card?

[Phil]

"What is the most common card played to the 13th trick?"

I'm looking for the rank.

[Fluffy]

10

[Bbradley62]

Using the admittedly small sample of the 32 hands I've played today, I get:
2: 8
3: 7
4: 7
5: 5
6: 7
7: 7
8: 11
9: 10
T: 12
J: 10
Q: 16
K: 19
A: 9
total: 128

[CSGibson]

My own frequency table for 32 deals played online:

A: 1
K: 4
Q: 5
J: 5
T: 5*
9: 4*
8: 4
7: 1
6: 0
5: 1
4: 1
3: 0
2: 1

Total: 32 cards on 8 unclaimed deals

My own theory: Honor cards will be most frequent. There may be some self-selection in my deals because frequent claims on deals may impact results, but discarding by defenders make their cards most frequently honor cards, since those are rarely discarded, but aces will be relatively infrequent in general, since those control cards are frequently used early in the play.




*2 in same hand

[jmcw]

No question in my mind it will be a high honour, likely not the ace.

Toss up Q or K, slight edge to Q

[Phil]

I should qualify it to exclude claims, otherwise you'd have to make arbitrary rules about the order of remaining tricks.

I'm surprised to see middle honors in the samples. I would have expected the 9 or 10.

[Hanoi5]

The guys at the 1st Youth Congress gave me the file with all the hands played during the swiss tournament, all the cards were as likely to be led to the first trick. No last trick there though. I'd think it'd be more or less the same...

[phil_20686]

Surely it will be a middle spade. 7,8,9 of spades would be my guess. Feels like you are always winning the last trick with a middle trump, the small ones go ruffing and under the spade honours, the higher ones are used drawing trumps. Spades is the most common denomination for trumps.

[inquiry]

Short test grabbing hands from bridgebrowser... this was a small sample, i have a spreadsheet for pulling this information out, so I can make it a very large set of data if it is really important.

Cards played to the last trick.... the winner is the jack...... so far, i can look at 10,000 hands or more if better statistical numbers are needed.

A: 116
K: 318
Q: 405
J: 424
10: 388
9: 274
8: 279
7: 163
6: 103
5: 73
4: 61
3: 33
2: 31

667 hands (many duplicates, since looked at all hands played, not just one persons).... the small size was to develop excel spreadsheet to pull out last trick and count the cards played.

[Phil]

Perfect, thanks Ben.

[inquiry]

Phil, on 2012-August-20, 15:03, said:

Perfect, thanks Ben.

WELL, here is data from 10,000 hands (only 6243 played all the way to trick 13,,, now the Q is the "winner")


A: 1337
K: 2602
Q: 3256
J: 3156
10: 3045
9: 2473
8: 1962
7: 1358
6: 1003
5: 658
4: 490
3: 307
2: 177

[barmar]

What if you get specific to the suit?

[JLOGIC]

Does excluding claims bias the results? Maybe bad players never claim so it doesn't matter. I'm not sure if it's relevant, but when you have aces to win the last trick with or high trumps a claim is more likely to be made.

FWIW I also thought it would be the ten of spades or something liek that.