ArtK78, on 2013-May-29, 09:32, said:
2. I would open 1♠, as slam chances are significant. Opposite nothing more than Jxx of spades and the KQ of clubs, slam is nearly 100% (have to account for A and another club - ruffed, or a ruff of the first round of diamonds while the opps are still on lead as very small adverse possibilities). Figuring out if a slam is there may not be easy, but I don't think that you have to bash 4♠ to keep the opps out of the auction. One of the opps has already passed, so the chances that they are going to find a useful contract of their own have decreased, and you do have more than your share of HCP.
How are you planning to bid Art ?
And i will give you an uncontested auction for the sake of argument.
I will give your pd
♠ K
I will give your pd no
♥ hcps
I will give him no
♦ values
I will give your pd KQx or AKx
♣
1
♠--1NT
?
I mean i agree with everything u said but there is other side of the coin. Yes you need a little to make slam or even grandslam, but a max hand by pd may not be enough to make 5 also, and you know there is a good chance you will be pushed to 5 level if you go slow, on your way to wonder about the magic cards pd may hold. Despite the 9 card spades, you don't even have a solid trump to start with. Yes RHO is coming from pass but, so does your pd, He has 0-10 hcp, very likely short in spades and we expect him not to hold his values in red suits, even if he has any values. I know everyone finds the cards pd has in BBF accurately.
But i gave them all to your pd + uncontested auction for the sake of argument, so give me a convincing and objective auction that allows you to find that slam, when at the same time the same auction doesn not become costly in some other hands.
ArtK78, on 2013-May-29, 09:32, said:
2. I would open 1♠, as slam chances are significant. Opposite nothing more than Jxx of spades and the KQ of clubs, slam is nearly 100%
What are the chances of finding these cards, in real life, when someone doesn't give them to you for the sake of argument ? And what are the combined chances of knowing them and bidding accurately our slam ?