[gszes]

We are around an ace better than we have to be for our initial 1s bid. We have 2 defensive
tricks and a tad extra. P has to cater to our having a lot less than we have when they passed
and they may even be sitting there hoping we can reopen with x. Once in a while we will
catch p with 3244 minimum and get a poor result (maybe they could have made 2h anyway)
no matter what p bids.

Passing here seems just too weak even though the odds of us having a game may be small
and x by us will almost never be a disaster and that seems a reasonable risk vs reward
ratio in favor of x. A pass on the other hand may lead to a disaster if p was waiting and
even praying we could make a X. Two hearts down 2 or 3 can be quite beneficial when there
is an x on the table.

[Winstonm]

aguahombre, on 2013-July-14, 15:14, said:

If you start with an assumption of -110, your math works. I have reason to believe there is greater than 50% chance they can't get 110 to start with, and bids by me would be attempts to get better than +100. Not good prospects, IMO.

I think I understand your situation - you are saying that even when the opponents are going down, partner may not leave the double in and thus get us into an inferior contract that does go down?

Yes, I can understand that point. It is a very practical approach.