[whereagles]

MPs, all vuln

♠Q87
♥QT3
♦QJ632
♣QJ


LHO pard RHO you
3♥... dbl pass ..??

Bid?

[Hanoi5]

I usually bid 3NT with these hands. Especially playing MP's, I cannot pass the opportunity for the usually better scoring game.

[nige1]

whereagles, on 2015-January-18, 16:58, said:

MPs, all vuln ♠ Q 8 7 ♥ Q T 3 ♦ Q J 6 3 2 ♣ Q J
LHO pard RHO you
3♥... dbl pass ..??

IMO 3N = 10, Pass = 9, 4♦ = 8, 3♠ = 7.

[ggwhiz]

Bob Hamman: When 3nt is one of the options, there are no other options.

[eagles123]

Very tempted to pass

[jogs]

Undouble. Want to defend 3♥, not 3♥X. We need the undouble bid.

[mikeh]

4♦. This is a non-problem.

Imps would be a slightly different issue, because of the game bonus, but at mps, with this sort of dreck, bidding 3N is rolling the dice with the odds stacked against us.

I would put the chances of our being able to take 9 tricks in 3N at about 20%. Assume I am way too pessimistic....make it twice as likely...40%.

Even at 45%, and even at imps, 3N would be a poor choice because most of the time we fail, we fail by 300 or more.

Meanwhile, at mps, you can have your 45% 600 or 630 scores so long as you accept that 55% of the time you will do worse than you would in 4♦ (or higher).

3N has one way to win. 4♦ has many ways to win. Not only may it be a plus when 3N fails, but when both fail, 3N is almost surely down a lot more. And when partner has a good hand, we may make 5♦ (or 6) failing in 3N, or breaking even because both score 600, and finally we may reach a slam when he has a super hand.

Since mps is a frequency game, not a size game, 4♦ seems to stand out.

I think there is a real tendency on BBF to want to do the 'brave' or non-wimpy action, to write as if one is a gunslinger. Gunslingers usually end up in Boot Hill (aka the graveyard). Sometimes, even when the hand is posted as a problem, the correct answer is the boring answer.

Btw, learning that on this hand 3N (or pass) would have worked won't persuade me that 3N (or pas) would be the correct answer. It might make me run a simulation, but I would be very surprised if any reasonably constrained simulation invalidated my reasoning here.....which is based on more than 40 years of playing this game.

[broze]

mikeh, on 2015-January-19, 11:36, said:

4♦. This is a non-problem.

Totally agree. There is no need to play top/bottom bridge at MP. It wouldn't particularly surprise me to see that 3N can go 7 off and 4D can make! That said this should be a decent spot to run a sim.

[BillPatch]

A preliminary sim of 10 on Jack of the 4 choices revealed that 3 NT outperformed the penalty pass 7 to 3, tied 4♦ 5 to 5, led 3♠ 5 to 4. So it seems that this is a real problem at MPs. Will Perform main sim of 3NT vs 4♦ since they are the co-leaders,

[mikeh]

BillPatch, on 2015-January-19, 17:47, said:

A preliminary sim of 10 on Jack of the 4 choices revealed that 3 NT outperformed the penalty pass 7 to 3, tied 4♦ 5 to 5, led 3♠ 5 to 4. So it seems that this is a real problem at MPs. Will Perform main sim of 3NT vs 4♦ since they are the co-leaders,

I would suggest that you need to provide the constraints for the simulation. It is impossible to evaluate the reliability of any simulation without knowing the constraints. Coming up with constraints in these situations is very difficult and may give rise to a lot of disagreement, about such basic matters as minimum and maximum holdings for opener and for doubler.

You also need to run a lot more than 10 samples

[jogs]

3NT's chances depend on the distribution of the heart suit.

1=2=3=7. Don't like our chances if pd has only one heart.
2=1=3=7. Now we may be able to win 9 tricks before they take 5.

Think singleton heart with pd is more likely than doubleton heart.

[MrAce]

jogs, on 2015-January-19, 21:04, said:

3NT's chances depend on the distribution of the heart suit.

1=2=3=7. Don't like our chances if pd has only one heart.
2=1=3=7. Now we may be able to win 9 tricks before they take 5.

Think singleton heart with pd is more likely than doubleton heart.

If the chances of 3 NT was depending on hearts only, we all, including Mike would bid it. How are you planning to make 9 tricks even if you steal a trick in hearts on the lead?

Axxx
x
AKxx
Axxx

There you go, all prime cards and 15 hcp, and you got a trick on the lead, i made the guy lead from his AKJxxxx. I also made sure you have no problems in your long suit and decorated the side suits with Aces. How do you make 9 tricks?

Hearts are not the only or main concern. I know you can make on club finesse after stealing a trick on the lead but pd can dbl with much less than the hand I gave, especially when he is short in hearts.

[PhilKing]

So we have at least people in this thread who think 4♦ is right, yet it still only has 2 votes.

You could possibly sell me 3NT if I had the ♦K instead of the queen but, as it is, I just don't see how I am going to run 9 tricks often enough. For me, the silver bullet is that when 3NT goes off, it will often be 4 or 5 off, which surely makes it a losing proposition.

Edit, just seen it is matchpoints, but I just can't see 3NT making more than half the time, and some of the time when we bid 4♦ we will get to a making game (perhaps 600 v 600) or slam anyway, which a sim can only really handle if it is filtered by human eyes. And 4♦ will get us matchpoints when 3NT makes, but the reverse is not necessarily true - not everyone bids like a BBF lemming.

[whereagles]

jogs, on 2015-January-19, 10:06, said:

Undouble. Want to defend 3♥, not 3♥X. We need the undouble bid.

Very imaginative, but sadly it can't be done. Try again

[whereagles]

mikeh, on 2015-January-19, 11:36, said:

I think there is a real tendency on BBF to want to do the 'brave' or non-wimpy action, to write as if one is a gunslinger. Gunslingers usually end up in Boot Hill (aka the graveyard). Sometimes, even when the hand is posted as a problem, the correct answer is the boring answer.

ahahah.. we BBOers have a motto: "Live fast, die young." Maybe you heard of it

(Nice pedagogical post btw.)

[whereagles]

Ok, "solution":

---

Wrong time for RHO to go "six-four bid more". Even slopping a trick (which happened at table), passing grants N/S a +200 near top.

If you don't want to risk it, 4♦ makes as well. Basically only Bob Hamman was wrong

[Fluffy]

Damn mikeh had almost convinced me that pass was wrong, and now you put the full hand, now I am doubtfull again.

I guess it just depends on who the opener is

I am a big overbidder with 6-4, but AKxxxx 109xx is not a high ODR holding, and they are vulnerable.

[BillPatch]

I simulated the hand for 100 sample sets of the auction to advancer's bid-choice of 3 nt or 4 ♦. I let Jack choose the bids of the preemptor, his partner, and the takeout doubler. The preempts were standard, almost all 7 card in ♥ with a few 8's. 5 to 9 hcp with multiple honors in trumps. The minimum takeout doubles were weak, one 11 hcp, about 6 12 hcp, with the preponderance of the others 13 to 15 hcp. 3 NT was makeable slightly over 50%, but 2 of three times doubler asked for aces and bid the NT and bid 6 NT it went down. Another making slam was bid in ♠.

The results were 3NT 51.5%, 4♦ 49.5%, still too close to call.