silvr bull, on 2015-March-05, 04:38, said:
The stiff H in North is the key to considering a slam with only 24 HCP.
I disagree. The key to possible slam is being able to take at least 4
♦ tricks in addition to 6 trumps in responder's hand plus 2 more without having 2 fast losers in the rounded suits.
Kxxx-x-AJxx-Axxx (or Kxxx-Axxx-AJxx-x)
Kxxx-x-AJxxx-Axx (or Kxxx-Axx-AJxxx-x)
Kxxx-Ax-AJxx-Axx (or Kxxx-Axx-AJxx-Ax)
The first two pairs of hands are clearly not worth 3
♠ in K-S; the 3rd pair might upgrade because almost all of its HCP are in key cards.
Once
♠ are raised responder's reevaluates to an opening bid and, if he has a way to make a
mild slam try that
focuses on being able to take ♦ tricks, then maybe he should make one. I think that 3
♦ does that. With any of the example hands opener can almost drive to slam.
Once we know about
♦ tricks we have to worry about trump solidity. If opener has
♠KQ I don't think he can have 1st or 2nd round control of both rounded suits and we should be able to find that out; if he has
♠QJ then it is probably a 4 or 6 hand on the
♠ finesse; if he has just the
♠Q then we should stop in 4
♠.