[oldem]

Both vulnerable, as South you hold a power-house hand, and the bidding has proceeded as shown. What is your last call?

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[mr1303]

Abstain. What was 4NT all about? Not a call I would make here at all.

[Cyberyeti]

Depends what 4N/5♦ meant

[mgoetze]

So let's see, I tried to sign off in NT twice, and partner has shown a 1057 or 0157 shape? Seems like an easy 7♦ call. I usually hate natural positive responses but I guess they work out OK when responder has 7-5 shape.

[cherdano]

mgoetze, on 2015-August-16, 07:44, said:

So let's see, I tried to sign off in NT twice, and partner has shown a 1057 or 0157 shape? Seems like an easy 7♦ call. I usually hate natural positive responses but I guess they work out OK when responder has 7-5 shape.

7-5? Sounds more like 8-6 to me. Ok, 4♦ is 5=6 (with 4=6 we'd bid 4♣), 5♦ is 6=7, and then 6♣ emphasizes good clubs with extras.

[oldem]

The bidding system is the simple SA, regular carding; 4NT is asking for A; 5D response is "one ace"; 5NT is asking for K; 6C response is "no king!". So you have many responses: (1) PASS to accept 6C; (2) 6D because Diamond is partner's second suit, and you hope your AKQ can clear the suit if it breaks; (3) 6NT if you can count 5 tricks in Clubs, 4 tricks in Diamonds, 1 trick in Hearts, and 2 AK of Spades; (4) 7 Clubs if...; (5) 7D if...; etc., etc.

[phil_20686]

oldem, on 2015-August-17, 01:50, said:

The bidding system is the simple SA, regular carding; 4NT is asking for A; 5D response is "one ace"; 5NT is asking for K; 6C response is "no king!". So you have many responses: (1) PASS to accept 6C; (2) 6D because Diamond is partner's second suit, and you hope your AKQ can clear the suit if it breaks; (3) 6NT if you can count 5 tricks in Clubs, 4 tricks in Diamonds, 1 trick in Hearts, and 2 AK of Spades; (4) 7 Clubs if...; (5) 7D if...; etc., etc.

I think that the other posters know this, they are just poking fun at the idea that 4N is not to play. It does appear that if you have bid 3 suits natural one time each, and discovered that you have a misfit, you might next want to play in NT by bidding it at the lowest possible level.

Its also pretty clear that partner should not ever bid 4d with 5 diamonds, so he should be ??56 (since you always bid the higher ranked of two 5 card suits first with responding). Usually a direct 3C over a 2C GF opening promises two honours in the suit, so it looks like partner has something like x x xxxxx AQxxxx. If he is 47 in the minors it would be more normal to bid 4C and see if partner can bid diamonds.

I would bid 7d. At worst this will be on a 3-2 diamond break and a 3-3 club finesse, and in practice it will have lots of ancillary chances. Partner could have the club J, or be 7-5, or have the diamond J, or have a major suit card etc etc.......

[oldem]

The hand is a real one which I played the other day on BBO. The full deal is the following.
As the cards lie, 7C or 7D are all good. But the best contract is 7S with one finesse for the Q of spades which is on side.

[oldem]

The hand is a real one which I played the other day on BBO. The full deal is the following.
As the cards lie, 7C or 7D are all good. But the best contract is 7S with one finesse for the Q of spades which is on side.

[oldem]

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[sfi]

Without useful agreements I'm not sure I have enough imagination to avoid playing 6NT on the hand (something like 2C - 3C; 3H - 3NT; 6NT), which is a lucky make. And I'm definitely losing out here to the 7S bidders.

[mr1303]

7S is not the best contract. A contract that requires a 3-3 trump split with Qxx in the slot is not a good contract.

[cherdano]

4♦ is a really really really really bad bid.

- If you are responding to a 2♣ opener, you should assume that you should play in partner's suit unless he shows a balanced hand - his suits are likely to be of much better quality than yours, since his hand is much stronger than yours. In addition, a strong trick-taking suit might be one of the reasons he has opened 2♣.
- Even ignoring this, bidding a new suit at the 4-level in a manner that takes up a lot of space should show an extreme hand; also, you need a lot of shape to be sure you don't want to play 3NT at this point. In fact, after 2♣-3♣-3♥ and given the North hand, the two most likely spots we want to play in are 3NT and 4♥ - bidding 4♦ makes it impossible to reach 3NT, and hard to reach 4♥. 4♦ should show 5=6 in the minors, never a 4-card suit.
- Even ignoring all this, you should never introduce a Txxx suit naturally at the 4-level, and especially not when partner might want to play slam (bad suits are always bad, but for slam they are terrible).

The only bids worth considering over 3♥ are 3NT or 4♥ - I wouldn't criticize either choice.
Personally, I wouldn't even have responded 3♣ - see how much nicer the auction times out after bidding 2♦: if partner bids 2♥, you can bid 3♣ and let him bid 3NT, or raise his 3♥ bid. If he bids 2♠, you have a great hand, and can move towards slam starting with 3♠. Etc.

[Zelandakh]

Hello oldem and welcome to the BBO forums. The "best" contract is not always the one that can be made as the cards lie or the one that gets listed as "optimal" on a deal sheet or in a DD solver. You generally do not want to be in a grand slam on a finesse and here you need even more than that for 7♠. You will be a better player if you are able to avoid "resulting".

Here you get a much more comfortable auction if it begins 2♣ - 2♦; 2♥ - 3♣ even though North has not shown the strength yet. That is often the case when you have a positive with a 5 card minor suit. I am not sure which hand you held but my feeling is that North pretty much butchered this one throughout. You mentioned that this was played on BBO but I was not able to find it in the hand records. What I did find was several hands in the down 4, 5, 6 category so I wonder if there is not a bidding issue there. In any case, I daresay there are posters here that can help if you post some problem hands. In any case, I hope you have fun here!

[Cyberyeti]

sfi, on 2015-August-18, 04:18, said:

Without useful agreements I'm not sure I have enough imagination to avoid playing 6NT on the hand (something like 2C - 3C; 3H - 3NT; 6NT), which is a lucky make. And I'm definitely losing out here to the 7S bidders.

Do you make 6N on a club lead ?

[manudude03]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-August-18, 11:22, said:

Do you make 6N on a club lead ?

Yes, Win the AQJ of clubs throwing 2 hearts, take the spade finesse for 4 spade tricks pitching a club. Then 3 rounds of diamonds and exit a heart.

[Cyberyeti]

manudude03, on 2015-August-18, 11:27, said:

Yes, Win the AQJ of clubs throwing 2 hearts, take the spade finesse for 4 spade tricks pitching a club. Then 3 rounds of diamonds and exit a heart.

So it needs more than 7♠ ?

[manudude03]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-August-18, 15:01, said:

So it needs more than 7♠ ?

7S on a club lead probably needs a 4-3 break in both hearts and clubs as well as the fortunate spade lie. 6NT can make if West had 3532 or 3622 as long as they had the ♥K.

[Cyberyeti]

manudude03, on 2015-August-18, 19:06, said:

7S on a club lead probably needs a 4-3 break in both hearts and clubs as well as the fortunate spade lie. 6NT can make if West had 3532 or 3622 as long as they had the ♥K.

Except that you always get a trump lead against the suit grand, this is particularly likely from the xxx you require the opening leader to hold.

There are swings and roundabouts on this one, on a club lead you can go down with everything splitting in 6N if the K♥ is with the 4th club, calculating the percentages is really awkward and beyond me at this time of night.

[rmnka447]

oldem, on 2015-August-18, 03:44, said:

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This is one of those hands where I think North is better off simply making a 2 ♦ waiting bid rather than escalating the auction with a positive 3 ♣ response.

The auction would go:

2 ♣ - 2 ♦ (waiting)
2 ♥

The next bid would depend on your 2nd negative agreements, if any. If cheapest suit is 2nd negative, then 3 ♣ is still forward going and shows ♣ values. If cheaper minor is the 2nd negative, then 2 NT should be an undefined positive. If you play an initial 2 ♥ response as a double negative, then again 3 ♣ is available as a forward going bid showing club values.

.....- 3 ♣ (positive with ♣ feature)

Now opener can either try for a spade fit with 3 ♠ or just settle into NT with a NT bid.

Frankly I don't like the OP's auction much. As the cards lie you can make 7, but that result runs against the probabilities. After 3 ♥, I think responder should simply bid 4 ♣. Bidding a 4 card suit headed by the 10 in a strong 2 ♣ auction just isn't good bidding. Over 4 ♣, if opener holds something like ♠ AKQ ♥ A10963 ♦ AK74 ♣ K, you'll still find the ♦ fit.

I'm not bidding 6 ♣ on AQJxx either as the length and strength isn't good enough to do so without knowing if opener even has a ♣. If opener shows up with a low ♣ instead of the ♣ K, a ♣ slam has no play.

As for bidding on over 6 ♣, I'd be tempted to raise to 7 thinking responder must be bidding 6 on something like AQJxxx or AQ10xxxx. But in the end, pass is probably right without being able to surely count 13 tricks.

As to bidding grand, the best criteria for doing so is either being able to count out 13 tricks or being able to be sure that there's at least 65+ % probability of taking 13 tricks. Although it's pointed out that 7 ♠ makes on the lie of the cards, it requires ♠ to break 3-3 and the ♠ Q to be onside. That's roughly an 18% chance of success since both conditions must be met. 7 ♦ needs a 3-3 ♦ break and has only about a 36% chance of success. 7 ♣ requires the ♠ finesse to work along with ♣ breaking no worse than 4-2, that ought to be in the range of about a 42% chance of success. None of those chances of success is high enough to bid the grand slam.

Good constructive bidding is about getting to spots that have a good chance of success. As Marty Bergen says, there are hands where slam makes but with good bidding should never be bid. Likewise, there are hands where slam goes down, but it was right to bid them based on their probability of making. Bidding isn't an exact science at this point.