[1eyedjack]

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MP, Instant, 35

Uncharacteristically for me I did not open 1N.

As an aside, how bad a play is the Diamond hook at trick 2? It would of course be pretty awful at IMP, but this is MP. I reckon that the finesse is a bit below 50% because of the lead at trick 1. And when it fails you can be fairly confident of a Spade switch. But the Spade honours need not be split, or there could be a blockage. Or on a rare day they may not play Spade. I felt that these made up for the reduced odds of the finesse. Maybe bad reasoning.

But WHAT a Spade switch! I confess that I had not factored that into my choice. Not a card that I would have chosen.

[johnu]

At MPs, the diamond finesse is correct. For the 50% when the finesse is off, East will have ♠AK 25%, and West will have ♠AK 25%. So, at worst, playing for overtricks will work ~75%. If GIB East doesn't switch to spades, the odds go up to a lot more than 75%.

[robert2734]

How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract?

[1eyedjack]

 robert2734, on 2016-April-22, 20:38, said:

How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract?

Sorry I don't understand the question. Nor what it has to do with East's Spade Ace play at trick 3 that triggered the OP.

[robert2734]

At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top.

[1eyedjack]

 robert2734, on 2016-April-23, 03:31, said:

At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top.

So this argues against d finesse? I take the point

[robert2734]

If the spades are 5-3 you can lose no more than the diamond finesse and three spade tricks. If the spades are 3-5 , you probably would have gotton a spade lead. If the spades are 4-4, other declarers might have lost 4 spades off the top and just claim the last nine tricks. If the diamond finesse works you beat them and if it loses you probably don't.