[gwnn]

AKQJ9x
Ax
xx
xxx

MPs, you open 1S in third, partner bids 2C drury (max passed hand with a fit).

Let's say you can only bid 4S or 3N, which do you go for?

[steve2005]

Just bidding 3N is huge gamble. You have no idea of stoppers. You have no idea if partner has ruffing potential.

[gwnn]

steve2005, on 2018-April-11, 06:32, said:

Just bidding 3N is huge gamble. You have no idea of stoppers. You have no idea if partner has ruffing potential.

The argument would go that partner pulls with ruffing potential (not that I'm advocating 3N).

[ggwhiz]

I bid 2nt forcing and discussed with partner who responds basically with what they would accept a help suit game try in up the line.

Any 4-card spade holding or outside shortness is never sitting for 3nt anyway but the door to 3nt is open and we can get there on purpose although rarely. If I bid a new suit instead it's the same kind of probe for game and once in a while responder can offer notrump as a possibility.

[pescetom]

ggwhiz, on 2018-April-11, 08:08, said:

I bid 2nt forcing and discussed with partner who responds basically with what they would accept a help suit game try in up the line.

To be sure I understood... if partner replies 3♦ then he is denying 4-card support in ♠ and affirming that he would have accepted a help suit game try in ♦ but not in ♣, right?

[steve2005]

gwnn, on 2018-April-11, 07:38, said:

The argument would go that partner pulls with ruffing potential (not that I'm advocating 3N).

I think 3N could show solid spades theoretically but a lot of people it just shows 18-19 pts and suggesting to play 3N. If you have agreed 3N shows specifically solid you are better placed. But the Drury response I found 3N was listed as 18-19 balanced.

But responder will have to have stoppers and little ruffing potential to sit.

[ggwhiz]

pescetom, on 2018-April-11, 08:19, said:

To be sure I understood... if partner replies 3♦ then he is denying 4-card support in ♠ and affirming that he would have accepted a help suit game try in ♦ but not in ♣, right?

Yes to denying club help and if partner bids 3♣ (or if you feel like it over 3♦) you can bid 3♥. Might get raised since the agreement is rare and easily forgettable but shouldn't since you didn't bid 2♥ (1 round force) over 2♣ and gives partner a chance to choose. You can risk 3nt hoping they can't take 5 clubs as partner will never sit with a stiff one but 3♥ feels better. Opposite a 3-4-4-2 4♠ looks best but a 3-(4-3)(3-4)-3 looks like 3nt.

Partner may still have 4 spades with the posted agreement but won't sit for 3nt with that unless inspired with a 4-3-3-3. If you play Bergen on by a passed hand (as we do) that's not the case.

[rhm]

steve2005, on 2018-April-11, 09:57, said:

I think 3N could show solid spades theoretically but a lot of people it just shows 18-19 pts and suggesting to play 3N. If you have agreed 3N shows specifically solid you are better placed. But the Drury response I found 3N was listed as 18-19 balanced.

But responder will have to have stoppers and little ruffing potential to sit.

What ruffing potential are you talking about?
3NT is clearly a choice of games where both sides know there is at least an 8 card fit in spades.
I would expect a druri partner to correct to 4♠ at least half the time.
Among others if partner has a side suit singleton I expect him to run.
So the only potential "ruffing value" partner could possible have and sit for 3NT is a doubleton in clubs.

The danger are not ruffing values but that the defense can establish 4 or 5 tricks before we can take our tricks.
Against that it is also possible that a passed partner will not bring 3 tricks in the side suits and 4♠ has no play.
Some people think it is a minor catastrophe if they go down in 3NT when they have a major suit fit, but shrug their shoulders when 3NT is the only game, which makes, even though they have major suit fit.
Many do not even realize that when they go down in 4♠ or when 3NT would have made the same number of tricks at matchpoints.
It is tough to get from 4♠ back to 3NT, but at least an option from 3NT to 4♠, should that be a better contract.
Why 3NT should show 18-19 opposite a Drury partner escapes me.
What is a drury partner supposed to do with this information?
Bid 6♠?

I think 3NT is a very reasonable bid, particularly at MP.

Rainer Herrmann

[smerriman]

Double dummy analysis is never completely relevant, but since this was GIB (came from free weekly instant):

- assuming double dummy lead and play
- assuming GIB has >= 3 spades, 11 or less HCP, 10-12 total points (GIB definition)
- 500 sims

Case 1: exactly 3 spades, no singleton

3NT scores 25% in MP over 4S

Case 2: exactly 3 spades, no singleton, at least half a stopper (hcp + length >= 4, GIBs definition) in each side suit

3NT scores 28% in MP over 4S

Not finding the killing lead may skew this one way or the other, and maybe there are better definitions of when to sit, but surely not enough to make 3NT worth it.

[ggwhiz]

smerriman, on 2018-April-11, 15:46, said:

since this was GIB

PLEASE let me know from the get go if it's GIB instead of bridge so I don't waste my time!

[smerriman]

ggwhiz, on 2018-April-11, 16:22, said:

PLEASE let me know from the get go if it's GIB instead of bridge so I don't waste my time!

.. but whether it's GIB or not makes no difference whatsoever if this comes up in a human context.

[MrAce]

If there was a way to make pd declare 3 NT, I would not hesitate it for a second.
It may not be in our best interest to play it from my side.
If this is a MP as it says in OP and if we are doing fine so far in the set, I would not make a move that may reward me with a bottom score, so I choose 4♠. If I need some action due to my previous scores, then...sure...I am all up for it.

[ggwhiz]

smerriman, on 2018-April-11, 16:49, said:

.. but whether it's GIB or not makes no difference whatsoever if this comes up in a human context.

Of course it does. A human will understand 2nt but with GIB you have to pin the tail on the donkey.

[gwnn]

How hard it is to understand "Let's say you can only bid 3N or 4S"? I stipulated from the start that partner does not understand 2N.

I deliberately did not mention that it is GIB because I thought the hand was interesting with or without the robot element. I was wondering about the bridge merit of the two calls. Why is it a waste of time if it came from one sort of tournament vs another?

[GrahamJson]

What would you bid with a 5332 18/19 count? Presumably 3NT. In which case how is partner supposed to know whether to pass or bid 4S if you also bid 3NT with the example hand?

[rhm]

smerriman, on 2018-April-11, 15:46, said:

Double dummy analysis is never completely relevant, but since this was GIB (came from free weekly instant):

- assuming double dummy lead and play
- assuming GIB has >= 3 spades, 11 or less HCP, 10-12 total points (GIB definition)
- 500 sims

Case 1: exactly 3 spades, no singleton

3NT scores 25% in MP over 4S

Case 2: exactly 3 spades, no singleton, at least half a stopper (hcp + length >= 4, GIBs definition) in each side suit

3NT scores 28% in MP over 4S

Not finding the killing lead may skew this one way or the other, and maybe there are better definitions of when to sit, but surely not enough to make 3NT worth it.

I agree, but the issue is control not ruffing value in dummy

Rainer Herrmann

[nekthen]

---

My understanding is that the Drury hand has the values for 3♠ but is worried that partner may have opened light.


Opps are going to take 4 tricks off the top in 4♠ and the first 7 against 3N if the A♦ is wrong. What is clear is that the 3N contract will be played from the wrong side. I voted for 4♠ but given the choice I will settle for 2♠ (Partner I did indeed have a regular 1♠ opener)

May I humbly suggest you give up Drury? If partner has indeed opened light why was 4th seat silent? These days if partner is weak he is much more likely to open 2♠ as it is more preemptive and partner as a passed hand will likely keep quiet

[msjennifer]

Abstain.Why a bid of 3S has not been offered is difficult to understand.A bid of 3S specifically tells the partner not to worry about the spades suit and that you are having 6 outright losers in the remaining suits.Let him decide based upon this information whether to bid 3NT or 4S..This will also enable 3NT to be played from the correct hand.

[gwnn]

msjennifer, on 2018-April-12, 05:43, said:

Abstain.Why a bid of 3S has not been offered is difficult to understand.

Because this is not agreed in this particular partnership, for example.

[GrahamJson]

gwnn, on 2018-April-12, 06:01, said:

Because this is not agreed in this particular partnership, for example.

Is it really necessary to have an agreement? Surely partner can work out that 3S is stronger than 2S but weaker than 4S.