DavidKok, on 2022-January-12, 16:11, said:
If the 8 is a true card, the 3 is a false card from AT32. I find that more impressive than to spot the 8 falsecard from AT82 ("nobody randomises their 3's"), despite the fact that it was led from dummy. So I'm catering to East having a 4-card suit, small to the jack.
Mind you, we still need something extra to make in this case. There's diamonds 3-3, club queen dropping, club queen on a finesse, diamond JT dropping, diamond J/T dropping and finessing East for the other one, smothering the diamond 8/T/J (pick which) and a minor suit squeeze. At the table I'd hopefully have time to plan ahead - as a spur of the moment decision I'll play a small spade to the jack.
If east is good enough to smoothly play the 8 from A108x then his partner is probably good enough to falsecard with the 3 from A1032. Heck, this is the sort of falsecard that some defenders make inadvertently, not paying much attention.
As for nobody randomizing 3’s and 2’s, it should be routine unless count/attitude is useful to the opps.
Ever watch a good declarer? I’ve never tried to track this but my guess is that in the early play most good declarers falsecard spot cards from hand on at least half the boards. It’s not so easy as a defender since much of the time one has to be aware that partner may be looking for some information from you, that falsecarding distorts. However, this sort of situation is perfect for randomizing.
I think it’s extremely close and at the table, face to face, I might have got a very tiny clue, but usually not…certainly not against really good players. My guess, and really that’s all it is, is to play east for an honest card since, as cyber points out, the 8 is not a cost-free falsecard, while the 3 definitely is. So I lay down the Queen.
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