[AL78]

IMP pairs:

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We play Landy so my 2♦ was natural.

We let this through for a 10 imp swing out (only three tables, the other pairs were in 3♥+1). I led a top diamond which is not the optimal lead. It looks like to get it down I have to lead my singleton club, win the first or second round of trumps, put partner in with the spade ace, partner gives me a club ruff, and we eventually make a diamond trick. As a rule I don't like leading singletons if there is another plausible lead available (it risks picking up an honor holding in partner's hand, for one thing). The question is, is the complete killing defence deducible at the table, or am I in the realms of fantasy thinking if I had got off to the right start, we could have worked out the rest and finished the job?

[johnu]

AL78, on 2022-March-27, 15:28, said:

As a rule I don't like leading singletons if there is another plausible lead available (it risks picking up an honor holding in partner's hand, for one thing).

The diamond honor could have been the best lead and sometimes could be in certain layouts. That being said, how do you expect to beat 4♥ without partner providing a trick or two. So, if partner has an entry (and since you have trump control with the ace), a club ruff is a likely additional trick.

Benito Garrozzo once said "Always lead singletons against suit contracts" and IIRC, I don't have a singleton if I didn't lead one. The book Winning Suit Contract Leads had numerous examples where the singleton lead was by far the best lead.

[Stephen Tu]

johnu, on 2022-March-27, 16:16, said:

Benito Garrozzo once said "Always lead singletons against suit contracts" and IIRC, I don't have a singleton if I didn't lead one. The book Winning Suit Contract Leads had numerous examples where the singleton lead was by far the best lead.

I don't think he said exactly that, "always lead singleton". I think it was more along the lines of he stopped trying to figure out when singleton might be slightly anti-percentage and just started leading it all the time it seemed at least a reasonable shot. There are still some hands where it might look clearly wrong (e.g. ruff just kills your natural trump tricks, partner can't possibly have entry, etc.)
More "if in doubt, lead singleton".

[smerriman]

A club lead is fantastic if partner has any single top trick (club ace, diamond ace, spade ace, trump king all work, and sometimes even Qx in trumps. Though diamond ace you may not guess.). For a diamond to work you need partner to have *two* tricks. One seems a better shot than two.

(If a singleton lead picks up an honor holding in partner's hand, isn't it likely to be picked up regardless?)

[johnu]

Stephen Tu, on 2022-March-27, 16:57, said:

I don't think he said exactly that, "always lead singleton". I think it was more along the lines of he stopped trying to figure out when singleton might be slightly anti-percentage and just started leading it all the time it seemed at least a reasonable shot. There are still some hands where it might look clearly wrong (e.g. ruff just kills your natural trump tricks, partner can't possibly have entry, etc.)
More "if in doubt, lead singleton".

It doesn't change the point of the singleton comment that there are exceptions to the rule. Same as with most bridge "rules". To reach the next level of expertise, a player needs to be able to analyze when a bridge "rule" needs to be ignored.

[LBengtsson]

I would have found the equal defense of leading ♠9 and partner ducking (I am only joking)

As for an answer to your question, your lead of top ♦ honor is safe, but East has already indicated shortage. Trumps are breaking good for declarer. If partner has any honor cards they are under the strong NT hand, so where do the defense tricks come from?

I agree it is difficult to find at the table, but partner must have some high cards somewhere. I was given advice at a young age to try to picture the perfect defense before it happens. I always think it is a good move (like on chessboard) to lead a stiff when you have a control in the opps. trump suit. But, as you say, it might have been the wrong lead, so it is just bad luck that you did not find it.

[AL78]

LBengtsson, on 2022-March-27, 21:56, said:

I was given advice at a young age to try to picture the perfect defense before it happens.

I get this and the idea that if the bidding suggests they have values to spare, play partner for the minimum needed to get it down which is consistent with auction, but this is something I find difficult to do at the table. I can work out a range for partner's HCP strength and some of their distribution, but it is going from that to mentally running through a load of hand layouts where the contract can fail, and trying to work out which of these is best to play for. What often happens is I come down to two possible lines of defence and I can't work out which is the best one to play, and I end up taking the one which lets it through when the other would have worked. It is a problem I have at MPs as well when I don't have a standout continuation.