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3NT contract best play?

#1 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 08:29

You are in 3NT, playing Rubber Bridge. West leads a heart and RHO plays the Q.

You see:

Scoring: Rubber

Lead heart, RHO plays Q



Plan the play.


(As usual Adv/Adv+ please refrain from posting spoilers too early).
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#2 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 08:51

Trumpace, on Mar 17 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

(As usual Adv/Adv+ please refrain from posting spoilers too early).

All I shall say is that this is quite a lot harder than it looks at first sight.

A hidden hint follows
Spoiler

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#3 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 08:57

Hidden:
Spoiler

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#4 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 09:09

ArtK78, please! Spoiler = solution, whether hidden or not. I believe you fall in the Adv/Adv+ bracket...
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#5 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 09:11

FrancesHinden, on Mar 17 2009, 09:51 AM, said:

Trumpace, on Mar 17 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

(As usual Adv/Adv+ please refrain from posting spoilers too early).

All I shall say is that this is quite a lot harder than it looks at first sight.

I agree, but I still think this is the right forum for this.
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#6 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 09:18

Win 1, try to drop both minor queens. Failing that, Queen discarding the Ten, then run the 9?

The obvious play seems to be repeated finesses using entry to return to hand, but I think the above line is 1-2% better at rubber?
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#7 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 09:31

vuroth, on Mar 17 2009, 10:18 AM, said:

Win 1, try to drop both minor queens. Failing that, Queen discarding the Ten, then run the 9?

What if the 9 gets covered? Say, LHO has K87x.
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#8 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 10:25

Ahhh. So run the 9 first?
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#9 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 13:04

vuroth, on Mar 17 2009, 11:25 AM, said:

Ahhh. So run the 9 first?

Yes!

So, just so it is clear to other B/Is, can you please state your line of play starting at trick 2 and if possible try to explain the reasoning of why you chose it?
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#10 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 13:16

Sorry. Will refrain in the future.
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#11 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 14:40

Trumpace, on Mar 17 2009, 02:04 PM, said:

vuroth, on Mar 17 2009, 11:25 AM, said:

Ahhh.  So run the 9 first?

Yes!

So, just so it is clear to other B/Is, can you please state your line of play starting at trick 2 and if possible try to explain the reasoning of why you chose it?

I can try.

It's rubber bridge, so my criteria is to give myself every chance to make, even taking risks along the way.

Assuming I win the first trick (and it would be exceedingly dangerous and probably pointless not to), I have 6 top tricks - 1 spade, 1 heart, 2 diamonds, 2 clubs. There are 3 possible sources of 3 more tricks:

- finessing the King with LHO. Note that if LHO has Kxxx, we may need to finesse 3 times
- either opponent has singleton Q or doubleton Qx
- either opponent has singleton Q or doubleton Qx

In theory, combining my chances (i.e. picking up 4 clubs tricks and 4 diamond tricks) is possible, except that I'm going to lose a LOT of heart tricks, so I'll be down before that ever happens.

Line:

Win K
Cash AK. If the Q falls, I have 9 tricks.
Cash AK. If the Q falls, I have 9 tricks.
If not, then I need the spade finesse to work. If it fails, I'm going down a lot, but if it fails I was never making anyways.

Since I've burnt all my entries to hand, I have to ensure that I stay in hand for the first AND second round of spades. At first, I thought the order I played the first 2 rounds of spades didn't matter, but I was wrong. We need to start with the 9 of spades, playing low from dummy if the K does not appear. Next, we play the Queen. Then, low to the jack.

If I play the queen first and THEN, the 9, a clever LHO can put the King on my 9. I would need to win the Ace, but that would leave me with J3 on the board. If either opponent started with 4 spades, I'm down now.

If I start with the 9, it does LHO no good to cover at any point.

V
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#12 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 14:43

These hands are a bit harder to learn when you play in a world where no defender EVER holds up an honour. :rolleyes:
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#13 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-March-17, 16:44

Nice to see Art getting a compliment, he's been treated harshly lately. :)
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#14 User is offline   Trumpace 

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Posted 2009-March-18, 09:20

vuroth, on Mar 17 2009, 03:40 PM, said:

<snip>

If I play the queen first and THEN, the 9, a clever LHO can put the King on my 9.  I would need to win the Ace, but that would leave me with J3 on the board.  If either opponent started with 4 spades, I'm down now.

Nice writeup, V.

Just a minor point: if you play the Q and drop the T from dummy, then LHO shouldcover the 9. If you don't drop the T, LHO should play low on the 9, leaving you stranded in dummy (you will have to overtake the 9).
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