Posted 2023-March-20, 02:37
My partners always have ♠xxx, ♥xxx, ♦xxx, ♣KQTx on this auction.
Let's be bean counters for a second. We have 17 HCP, partner rates to have 6-9. That gives the bad guys or girls 14-17, with likely length in clubs. Their failure to preempt the auction makes it likely partner has 4, possibly 5(+) clubs. We are also missing two key cards and rate to have transportation issues. I think slam is not that likely on the given deal, and ideally I want our slam try to be below game in case partner holds garbage. If partner holds, say, the king of hearts, a fourth heart and a doubleton diamond we have an easy make, but if partner only has three hearts (which is likely) we are in trouble if the diamonds split 4-2 (we would need trumps 2-2 or diamonds 3-3, or partner's heart below the king high enough to ruff the third diamond high as well).
I'm not sure we can sensibly evaluate slam prospects. I'll try a 3♣ short suit game try to get partner to downgrade their club values, and I will bid 3♠ (control) over partner's presumed signoff.
If you play short suit game tries there is no great need to have splinters for opener as well. Those hands can make a short suit game try and then bid again. I therefore play the jump shift rebids as a long, strong side suit with slam prospects if the suit runs. This hand is a near-perfect match, and with that tool I think 4♦ is a nice bid (although it is uncomfortably close to 4♥).